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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside: Looking at the defensive sectors and stocks in those sectors that can move well despite being defensive plays. Looking at the upside while we wait for the downside plays to set up a bit better once more.
Play Date: 01/16/2008
ABT (Abbott Labs--$60.50; +0.83; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abt.html
EARNINGS: 1-23-08
STATUS: Breakout test. ABT used the early 2008 to its advantage, rallying off the 200 day SMA to breakout from a 9 month base and a new high. It made the test, fading back on Tuesday to the early December peak and the 10 day EMA (59.25). It found support there Wednesday and bounced on stronger volume. Nice test and moving higher. Ready to move in as it continues. Solid.
Volume: 9.651M Avg Volume: 6.249M
BUY POINT: $60.78 Volume=9.4M Target=$68.95 Stop=$58.57
POSITION: ABT EL - May $60c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/abt.html
Play Date: 01/16/2008
FDP (Fresh Del Monte Produce--$33.94; +0.99; optionable): Fresh farm products. Yummy and healthy!
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdp.html
EARNINGS: Late January
STATUS: Ascending base. Strong, above average volume Wednesday as FDP comes off the 50 day EMA (31.87), preparing to make the break over resistance in its 11 week base. This stock was one of the few performers during the last recession, and it can actually move quite well and give us a very nice return as it makes its next run.
Volume: 968.267K Avg Volume: 784.627K
BUY POINT: $34.55 Volume=1.2M Target=$41.95 Stop=$32.65
POSITION: FDP CF - Mar. $30c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fdp.html
Play Date: 01/16/2008
MLNM (Millennium Pharm--$16.25; +0.63; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mlnm.html
EARNINGS: Early February
STATUS: Ascending base. Solid breakout from a 6 month base to start November and a strong run into early December. Needed a breather to set up for the next leg higher, and it formed the current 6 week base to give it the rest it needs. Great upside volume and it was surging again Wednesday as MLNM moved to the top of the base, ready for the break to a 4 year high. Strong money flow is leading the way higher.
Volume: 9.228M Avg Volume: 6.4M
BUY POINT: $16.68 Volume=7M Target=$20.00 Stop=$15.55
POSITION: QMN EC - May $15c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mlnm.html
Play Date: 01/16/2008
VIVO (Meridian Biosciences--$34.29; +0.27; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vivo.html
EARNINGS: Mid-February
STATUS: Breakout test. VIVO broke higher from its 12 week base last week, rallying to 36 on that initial run. It came back to test the move in the recent market selling, finding support at the 18 day EMA on the Tuesday intraday low, then rebounding. Looks just about ready to continue the breakout move; all we need to see is the break upside on rising trade. Very nice leader in a very good sector for this market.
Volume: 303.748K Avg Volume: 382.631K
BUY POINT: $34.68 Volume=425K Target=$40.95 Stop=$32.68
POSITION: ZUG DF - Apr. $30c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vivo.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/16/2008
MA (MasterCard--$175.53; +0.53; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ma.html
EARNINGS: 1-31-08
STATUS: Put. MA broke below the 50 day EMA and tumbled lower on the AXP earnings warning. It has moved laterally the past couple of sessions just below the 90 day SMA (178.23), bumping up against that level on the highs. There is a gap from late October (on earnings) down at 158, and that is what we are eyeing on this decline, i.e. a fill of that gap higher. A move to the target lands a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 4.678M Avg Volume: 4.057M
BUY POINT: $173.94 Volume=5M Target=$159.00 Stop=$176.44
POSITION: MAL NO - Feb. $175p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ma.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/14/2008
APOL (Apollo Group--$78.57; -1.36; optionable): Education and training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apol.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-8-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Bumping up against the next breakout point, APOL is ready to make the break to that new high. Showing excellent volume as it holds its ground. Just want to see the break to move in. To recap: It has been a long time indeed since APOL showed the right stuff. APOL gapped higher last Wednesday on stronger than expected earnings and guidance. It worked slightly lower and laterally to end the week then surged back up on Monday with some rising, still very strong trade. It bumped into the November highs, the highs in its 10 week base. Excellent set up for a break higher and looking good for the new breakout. Ready to move in as it makes that move.
Volume: 5.751M Avg Volume: 2.626M
BUY POINT: $80.88 Volume=4M Target=$92.95 Stop=$78.55
POSITION: OAQ EP - May $80c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/apol.html
Play Date: 01/14/2008
BEC (Beckman Coulter--$73.63; +0.78; optionable): Biomedical testing instrument systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bec.html
EARNINGS: 2-8-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working laterally over the 18 day EMA, forming the handle ahead of the breakout. Surged higher Wednesday but could not hold all of the move. Still in great shape for the breakout. To recap: Forming a handle (lateral move above near support below the old highs) in its 13 week base. Used the 200 day SMA as support in the November selling, showing it has some solid institutional support. Solid base to consolidate a good move from August 2006. Volume has improved on the upside sessions this month with a good volume surge again on Monday. It is a solid stock in a great sector for a defensive market and in great shape to break higher.
Volume: 305.409K Avg Volume: 440.522K
BUY POINT: $74.62 Volume=656K Target=$85.95 Stop=$72.32
POSITION: BEC EO - May $75c (48 delta, 109 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bec.html
Play Date: 01/14/2008
IRIS (Iris Intl.--$20.99; -0.02; optionable): IVD systems, supplies for urinalysis, fluids testing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iris.html
EARNINGS: Early February
STATUS: Breakout test. Tested lower, down to the 18 day EMA (20.44) on the Wednesday low and then rebounded to close flat. Still a nice test of the breakout and set to continue the breakout. All it needs is the volume. To recap: Broke out of a large 2.25 year cup with handle base last week, clearing a 14 week cup with handle that acted as the base in doing so. Strong surge on strong volume, them moving laterally to end last week on lower, average volume. Strong money flow is leading the way higher.
Volume: 151.341K Avg Volume: 148.841K
BUY POINT: $22.24 Volume=220K Target=$26.95 Stop=$20.97
POSITION: JGU DX - Apr. $22.50c (48 delta, 134 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/iris.html
Play Date: 01/14/2008
IVGN (Invitrogen--$94.44; -1.05; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ivgn.html
EARNINGS: 2-5-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still in the test of the break higher last week. Got a bit wilder Wednesday, reaching down to the 50 day SMA on the low (93.22) and then rebounding to close right at the 18 day EMA. That was a good shakeout but we need to see the strong volume on the break higher through the buy point for us to move in. To recap: After an excellent run in 2007 IVGN needed to take a breather. This very nicely formed 6 week base showing solid up to down volume of late with a nice volume spike Monday. Nice hold at the 50 day EMA (92.16) shows plenty of support by the big money. May take another session or two to complete the handle before it makes the break but looks very good.
Volume: 1.195M Avg Volume: 805.414K
BUY POINT: $97.32 Volume=1.2M Target=$111.95 Stop=$94.39
POSITION: IUV ES - May $95c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ivgn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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