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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS: Looking at upside this weekend given the selloff and the look that the second leg of the selling is just about over. After the bounce starts we will start putting downside back on the report.:
Upside: Still looking at plays to ride the rebound from this second leg of selling. These are in addition to those on the Thursday report.
Play Date: 01/19/2008
AMZN (Amazon.com--$79.76; -0.36; optionable): Internet sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amzn.html
EARNINGS: 1-30-08
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. Yes it is retail, but AMZN was also one of the better performers in 2007, starting with its big gap higher in April on earnings. It peaked in October and has moved in a trading range from 77 to 97 since. It has just come back to the bottom of the range, tapping just over the still rising 200 day SMA (77.55) on the intraday lows last week, showing a series of dojis on the candlestick chart last week. That tells us it is bottoming on this pullback, perfect timing for an upside play with the market rebound as it rides back up in its range. One of the best set ups we see for an upside move in the market rebound from the second leg lower.
Volume: 13.364M Avg Volume: 9.429M
BUY POINT: $81.15 Volume=14M Target=$92.90 Stop=$77.45
POSITION: ZQN DP - Apr. $80c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amzn.html
Play Date: 01/19/2008
MBT (Mobile Telesys--$88.78; +3.83; optionable): Russian wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mbt.html
EARNINGS: Third week February
STATUS: Test 90 day SMA. A nice run from September through December, MBT sold back with the market, coming under heavy pressure last week as many leaders were shoved back with the other stocks that were already broken down and mangled. It found support at its 90 day SMA (84.90) and then bounced Friday on very strong volume. Maybe some expiration related trade, but MBT has not shown the same dogged selling, and thus it is in prime position to bounce sharply in a market rebound as it still has a lot of growth potential in the Russian market.
Volume: 3.154M Avg Volume: 1.579M
BUY POINT: $89.65 Volume=2.4M Target=$98.55 Stop=$84.68
POSITION: MBT CR - Mar. $90c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mbt.html
Play Date: 01/19/2008
RIG (Transocean--$128.41; +2.63; optionable): Offshore drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rig.html
EARNINGS: 2-20-08
STATUS: Test 90 day SMA. Energy was one of the last victims to fall last week, but despite the drubbing, RIG found solid support at the 90 day SMA (124.90) and bounced Friday on rising, above average volume. Indeed, the selling volume on RIG was not the massive distribution seen with other stocks. That sets it up for a rebound to try the 140 level where it peaked in late November and early December, the potential left shoulder of a possible head and shoulders top. That give us plenty of room to make a nice upside play in a more sustained market rebound even if the pattern does form, and we know that the pattern often looks as if it is going to set up but does not complete.
Volume: 9.844M Avg Volume: 8.666M
BUY POINT: $129.04 Volume=10M Target=$138.95 Stop=$126.42
POSITION: RIG EF - May $130c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rig.html
Play Date: 01/19/2008
VSEA (Varian Semiconductor--$34.20; +2.64; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsea.html
EARNINGS: 1-24-08
STATUS: Yes a chip stock. Quietly last week, chips started to show strength as the rest of the market sharply sold off. VSEA, a former chip leader before peaking to start September 2007, showed some solid action with two strong upside sessions on jumping volume. That indicates it was more than just a bounce back up to resistance in a continuing downtrend. Indeed, we are looking for it to continue higher off this strong volume turn, move through the 50 day EMA at 37.50, and test a band of resistance at 40. Not a huge move but a nice gain in a rebounding market.
Volume: 1.768M Avg Volume: 1.506M
BUY POINT: $34.55 Volume=2M Target=$39.45 Stop=$33.08
POSITION: UES CG - Mar. $35c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vsea.html
New buy point on a current position:
Play Date: 01/19/2008
HUM (Humana--$84.35; +0.08; optionable): Health care plans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hum.html
EARNINGS: 2-4-08
STATUS: Test breakout. HUM showed no weakness in the recent market selling. It broke sharply higher to start 2008, moving out of a 9 week ascending base that formed using the 50 day EMA as support. It rallied nicely on that initial surge and last week faded on lower volume to the 10 day EMA (84), showing a high volume doji at that level Friday. Excellent strength, and this is just the kind of play you want to look at in this market, i.e. the first test of a breakout by a leader in a great defensive sector.
Volume: 2.881M Avg Volume: 1.705M
BUY POINT: $85.11 Volume=2.6M Target=$95.95 Stop=$84.21
POSITION: HUM EQ - May $85c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hum.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/16/2008
ABT (Abbott Labs--$59.43; -0.32; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abt.html
EARNINGS: 1-23-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Held up in the selling, falling to close at the 10 day EMA near support Friday. Nice test of the breakout and set to move higher. To recap: ABT used the early 2008 to its advantage, rallying off the 200 day SMA to breakout from a 9 month base and a new high. It made the test, fading back on Tuesday to the early December peak and the 10 day EMA. It found support there Wednesday and bounced on stronger volume. Nice test and moving higher. Ready to move in as it continues. Solid.
Volume: 9.933M Avg Volume: 6.272M
BUY POINT: $60.78 Volume=9.4M Target=$68.95 Stop=$58.57
POSITION: ABT EL - May $60c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/abt.html
Play Date: 01/17/2008
CMED (China Medical Technologies--$47.03; -0.29; optionable): Chinese medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmed.html
EARNINGS: Third week February
STATUS: Breakout test. Still testing, holding at the late October high in the market selling last week. Now we look for it to hold and rebound on rising trade as it starts the second leg of the breakout, a great entry point for this type of market. To recap: CMED made us some money on its breakout, and we sold out this week, waiting on a test to give us another entry point. It fell to the late October peak (the start of the last base) on Thursday. Just waiting for it to hold the line near this level and rebound from here with a market recovery. A leader in the market and withstood the selling well. Ready to move in when it turns and bounces with the market.
Volume: 428.476K Avg Volume: 643.23K
BUY POINT: $48.22 Volume=700K Target=$57.88 Stop=$44.84
POSITION: QCY CI - Mar. $45c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cmed.html
Play Date: 01/17/2008
DIA (Diamonds Trust (DJ30 EFT)--$120.57; -1.05; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dia.html
STATUS: Fell further on Friday so we adjusted the buy point to accommodate the additional downside. Still looking for a sharp rebound after this second leg spends its last bullet. To recap: This second leg down is approaching its climax, and when it bounces it is going to have a fairly sustained rebound similar to late November, early December. When we see the turn after some more selling we will move in. The buy point is flexible; if DIA sells more first we can move in a bit lower when it reverses.
Volume: 35.592M Avg Volume: 16.203M
BUY POINT: $121.83 Volume=18M Target=$127.95 Stop=$119.91
POSITION: DAW CQ - Mar. $121c (59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dia.html
Play Date: 01/17/2008
FWLT (Foster Wheeler--$129.94; +1.36; optionable): Heavy construction, engineering
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fwlt.html
EARNINGS: Early February
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. Held up very well Friday, holding the line on the selling at the 130 support. Just waiting for the market bounce to move into this stock that can sprint back up. To recap: FWLT sold off in a straight line and Wednesday it held some support in the 130 range. Broke it slightly Thursday, but breaks of support after sharp declines tend to lead to rebounds. Given the market is on the cusp of a rebound, FWLT is positioned perfectly for a bounce.
Volume: 2.789M Avg Volume: 1.852M
BUY POINT: $131.48 Volume=2.2M Target=$147.00 Stop=$127.55
POSITION: UFB EU - May $135c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fwlt.html
Play Date: 01/14/2008
IRIS (Iris Intl.--$19.88; -0.35; optionable): IVD systems, supplies for urinalysis, fluids testing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iris.html
EARNINGS: Early February
STATUS: Breakout test. This is not just a rebound but a solid upside play with longer term potential. Tapped the 50 day EMA on the Friday low and rebounded. Very good shakeout and test of the early January breakout. To recap: Broke out of a large 2.25 year cup with handle base last week, clearing a 14 week cup with handle that acted as the base in doing so. Strong surge on strong volume, them moving laterally to end last week on lower, average volume. Strong money flow is leading the way higher.
Volume: 208.783K Avg Volume: 150.923K
BUY POINT: $21.11 Volume=220K Target=$26.95 Stop=$19.63
POSITION: JGU DX - Apr. $22.50c (48 delta, 134 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/iris.html
Play Date: 01/17/2008
MON (Monsanto--$105.75; +6.14; optionable): Ag biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mon.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-3-08
STATUS: MON was one of the stronger stocks Friday, bouncing to the 50 day EMA (106.35) and holding the move despite the once more weak market. We held off from moving in as the market was not ready. If it can continue through this level, however, it is a buy on the rebound. To recap: MON reported great earnings again to start the year and that started a new rally. It ran out of gas the past three sessions in the market selling, tapping the 90 day SMA on the Thursday low and rebounding to hold some support near 100. When the market turns we are looking to move in and ride MON back up into its last range.
Volume: 14.51M Avg Volume: 5.428M
BUY POINT: 106.48 (orig. $101.11) Volume=8.1M Target=$116.95 Stop=$96.55
POSITION: MON DA - Apr. $105c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mon.html
Play Date: 01/17/2008
MOS (Mosaic Company--$80.02; -0.98; optionable): Agricultural chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mos.html
EARNINGS: Early April
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. A nice hold at the 50 day SMA on the Friday close, keeping in the mid-December lateral range of support. Ready to bounce with the market and it can move fast when it moves. To recap: One of the ag leaders in the rally, MOS surged higher last week on solid earnings. Then the market took it down this wee, down to the 50 day SMA on the Thursday close. It is one of the few stocks that is actually holding the 50 day MA, and when the worm turns on this sell off, MOS is going to pop.
Volume: 10.352M Avg Volume: 4.526M
BUY POINT: $82.89 Volume=6M Target=$99.00 Stop=$79.21
POSITION: MOS CP - Mar. $80c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mos.html
Play Date: 01/17/2008
SPY (S&P Depository Receipts--$132.06; -1.37; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spy.html
STATUS: Tried to move higher Friday but failed, closing modestly lower. Still ready to make the rebound after this second leg of selling in the market downtrend. To recap: Similar to DIA, SPY is diving on its second down leg of the selloff. This second leg is now the same drop and duration of leg one, and another good scare and it is ready to reverse. If SPY sells substantially lower and then the market reverses, move the buy point down and move in.
Volume: 348.46M Avg Volume: 223.201M
BUY POINT: $133.45 (orig. $134.91) Volume=250M Target=$141.94 Stop=$133.88
POSITION: SFB CD - Mar. $134c (55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/spy.html
Play Date: 01/16/2008
VIVO (Meridian Biosciences--$33.00; -0.83; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vivo.html
EARNINGS: Mid-February
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped lower Friday but held support at the 18 day EMA on the close. Volume was lower, so no distribution as it moved lower, just more of a test. Looks solid and still a buy as it continues higher. This is not just a rebound play but a solid stock for this market that has turned very defensive. To recap: VIVO broke higher from its 12 week base last week, rallying to 36 on that initial run. It came back to test the move in the recent market selling, finding support at the 18 day EMA on the Tuesday intraday low, then rebounding. Looks just about ready to continue the breakout move; all we need to see is the break upside on rising trade. Very nice leader in a very good sector for this market.
Volume: 346.725K Avg Volume: 379.842K
BUY POINT: $34.68 Volume=425K Target=$40.95 Stop=$32.68
POSITION: ZUG DF - Apr. $30c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vivo.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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