|
|
stock trading site, stock trading information
Begin Part 2 of 2
Support and Resistance
Nasdaq: Closed at 1766.86.
Resistance: 1775 remains resistance from the October closing high. The January 2002 downtrend is now at 1775. The March 2000 down trendline is right at 1796. The bottom of November consolidation at 1875. The 50 day MVA follows at 1869.29.
Support: The November gap up point at 1745 held as some support. 1700 has held loosely. After that, there is not much until 1626, the early October gap up point.
S&P 500: Closed at 1109.38.
Resistance: The 50 day MVA (1117.54) that halted the index in late January and mid February. Price consolidations at 1125 where the index stopped stalled earlier in the month (the middle of the potential double bottom) and the hump of the potential double bottom. The simple 50 day MVA is also right there at 1127.10.
Support: 1100 can act as support and did Tuesday. Then 1075 to 1080 continues to hold tough. There is a jumble of prices in a range from 1075 to 1050, perhaps the reason this 1075 level has held well for now. 1050 was tested twice in October, holding both times. That is right at the 50% retracement (1060).
Dow: Closed at 10,115.26.
Resistance: December highs from 10,170 to 10,184. Then resistance comes in again at 10,250 up to the January high at 10,300 (June, July and August 2001 trading range). After that, 10,500 is the top of that range.
Support: The 200 day MVA (10,044.18) and 10,000. Then 9730 is the first January low and has provided some support. There is some support at 9691, the bottom of the November, December and January range.
Weekly Economic Calendar (All times Eastern). The figures are the consensus expectations, not ours.
2-25-02
Existing Home Sales, January (10:00): 6.04M annualized units (+16.2%) actual versus 5.25M expected and 5.19M prior.
2-26-02
Consumer Confidence, February (10:00): 94.1 actual versus 97.0 expected and 97.8 prior (revised from 97.3).
2-27-02
Durable Orders, January (8:30): 1.0% versus 1.7% prior.
New Home Sales, January (10:00): 925K versus 946K prior.
Greenspan son of Humphrey Hawkings testimony
2-28-02
Initial Claims, 2/23 (8:30): No information yet.
GDP, preliminary Q4 (8:30): 0.6% versus 0.2% prior.
Chain Deflator, Q4 (8:30): -0.3% versus -0.3% prior.
Chicago PMI, February (10:00): 47.0 versus 45.1 prior.
Help-Wanted Index, January (10:00): 46 versus 46 prior.
3-01-02
Truck Sales, February (Time not supplied): 7.1M versus 7.1M prior.
Auto Sales, February (Time not supplied): 5.3M versus 5.3M prior.
Personal Spending, January (8:30): 0.4% versus -0.2% prior.
Personal Income, January (8:30): 0.1% versus 0.4% prior.
Mich Sentiment-Rev., February (9:45): 91.0 versus 90.9 prior.
ISM Index, February (10:00): 51.0 versus 49.9 prior.
Construction Spending, January (10:00): 0.1% versus 0.2% prior.
TEAM TRADES
QQQ: After we figured out that part of the problem with the selloff this morning was another rumor about troops in Iraq and we saw the Nasdaq hold at 1745, we decided to add to some QQQ positions to take advantage of a continued move up toward 36.25 or so. We saw it bottom and then decided to take some quick action. The April 29 calls (the index was at 34.80) were trading 6.20 by 6.40. These are very liquid options, and we thought about trying to shave the spread. The index was moving quickly, however, so we went ahead and put in a limit order at 6.40. The fills on these are instantaneous. The QQQ ran up to 35.10, then 35.30 in the last hour. It looked as if the recovery scenario we were playing was working well. The Nasdaq ran out of steam toward the close, however, and the Q's fell back to 34.90 on the close. The last bid and ask was 6.30 by 6.50; we were right in the middle after it was all over. We need to be careful with these; we did not like the pattern of the Nasdaq on the close.
THE PLAYS:
Good movers:
AZR broke from the ascending wedge on strong volume (a buy on the move up to 21)!
FDX continued its breakout, but volume was lower (has been below average for several days), so will need a volume surge to carry through the breakout. A buy up to 58.91. UTX broke out on strong volume from the ascending wedge! A buy on the move up to 73.66.
ITG (on a watchlist since the weekend) broke out of the double bottom with handle. It remains a buy on the breakout up to 46.73 (closed at 44.86).
ATH (watchlist) has been running from its up trendline for four days, breaking to a new closing high Tuesday on strong volume!
EAT (watchlist) made a new all-time closing high, just breaking resistance on a strong volume surge. It has been climbing for week now, so we will look for a test of recent support before taking new positions. Previous buy point was 32.25.
Targets hit Tuesday: BMS (55)
Stop Advisories: JEC (65.75)
Continued plays that look good today and/or are holding up in their patterns:
WSTC ($27.45; +0.44): Made a move up in the handle, off of its 18 day MVA, with volume still above average though slightly lower. Buy point is 28.20.
URS ($29.95; +0.30): Moved up in the ascending wedge on much stronger (average) volume. With that, looks ready for the breakout! See last night's report (buy point 30.30).
VRTS ($37.76; +1.58): Put play. Closed just above the 18 day MVA, but volume remains low, below average on the three-day climb. Has some potential price resistance just above 38 and the 50 day MVA is ahead at 40 if it can make it that far. Thus, still interested in it for a fall.
Previously covered stocks that look ready for a play:
BVN: Gold performed today. Strong bounce from BVN off the 18 day MVA after consolidating in a pennant since the first of the month. Buy point is over 26 on continued strong volume for stock.
PSUN: Trying for a breakout from a 7-month cup with handle. Buy point is 24.42 on continued strong volume (1.3 million).
Other revisited stocks:
HCA (Hca Inc--$43.42; -0.18; optionable): Hospitals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hca.html
STATUS: Broke out of the 4-week ascending wedge pattern, and is testing the breakout, pulling back in a three-day handle on a small rise in volume (to 1.9 million; avg. 2.2 million). The low tapped near the 10 day MVA at the 43 range; looking for a hold at that support since it is at the highs in the ascending wedge, for a move up to breakout from the 6-month cup with handle. Closed Tuesday with a tight hammer doji. Target:
BUY POINT: 44.24 on volume of 3.3 million or better. Stop advisory (7%): 41.14
POSITION: Stock and/or May $40 calls to buy (HCA EH).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hca.html
SYK (Stryker--$61.14; +1.69; optionable): Health Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syk.html
STATUS: SYK broke out of a rolling range earlier this month, and on that move did not move out of its then 6-month flat base/saucer (actual high in the base is from July at 63.20, but the recent February high at 62 is a lower level of resistance near other recent highs). Instead, the stock has formed an ascending wedge handle to the base as it consolidates above the 18 day MVA (59.49). After tapping that support Monday on lower volume, SYK shot up with volume rising. Still below average (551,500; avg. 554,000), but we look for that to improve for a breakout. Money flow and relative strength look good. Target: 75
BUY POINT: 62.11 on volume of 831,000 or higher. Stop advisory (7%): 57.76
POSITION: Stock and/or June $55 calls to buy (SYK FK).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/syk.html
New:
AMFH (American Financial--$26.44; -0.14; no options): Savings & Loans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amfh.html
STATUS: Pulling back in the handle to a 26-week cup with handle base. The stock is holding near the 18 day MVA, closing a cent below that support as volume fell to very low levels Tuesday (28,000; avg. 85,000). After 2 days of strong volume (a big spike up on Friday), the much lower volume is a good sign. We look for a quick move back up from here, and a breakout over the February (handle) high at 27.10. Excellent money flow. Target: 33
BUY POINT: 27.20 on volume of 128,000 or higher. Stop advisory (7%): 25.30
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amfh.html
ABC (Amerisourcebergen--$65.86; +1.20; optionable): Drugs Wholesale
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abc.html
STATUS: Broke out of an ascending wedge it formed in its 17-week cup; the wedge formed in the middle of the right side (high in the base is at 72, October). This new base formed after the stock corrected off of that high, at the top of a nice uptrend that spanned most of 2001. Volume was strong on the move at 1.13 million (avg. 995,000), and if it can continue to climb, the stock remains a buy on the breakout up to 68.50. Buy point was 65.25. Target: 78
BUY POINT: 66.05 on 1.3 million volume (or higher). Stop advisory (7%): 61.29
POSITION: Stock and/or May $60 calls to buy (ABC EL).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/abc.html
For a review of frequently asked questions, please use the link below:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1questions.htm
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Technical Traders Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
stock trading site
stock trading information
|
