us stock market, stock trading information

Begin Part 2 of 4

Weekly Economic Calendar (All times Eastern). The figures are the consensus expectations, not ours.

2-25-02
Existing Home Sales, January (10:00): 6.04M annualized units (+16.2%) actual versus 5.25M expected and 5.19M prior.

2-26-02
Consumer Confidence, February (10:00): 94.1 actual versus 97.0 expected and 97.8 prior (revised from 97.3).

2-27-02
Durable Orders, January (8:30): 1.0% versus 1.7% prior.
New Home Sales, January (10:00): 925K versus 946K prior.
Greenspan son of Humphrey Hawkings testimony

2-28-02
Initial Claims, 2/23 (8:30): No information yet.
GDP, preliminary Q4 (8:30): 0.6% versus 0.2% prior.
Chain Deflator, Q4 (8:30): -0.3% versus -0.3% prior.
Chicago PMI, February (10:00): 47.0 versus 45.1 prior.
Help-Wanted Index, January (10:00): 46 versus 46 prior.

3-01-02
Truck Sales, February (Time not supplied): 7.1M versus 7.1M prior.
Auto Sales, February (Time not supplied): 5.3M versus 5.3M prior.
Personal Spending, January (8:30): 0.4% versus -0.2% prior.
Personal Income, January (8:30): 0.1% versus 0.4% prior.
Mich Sentiment-Rev., February (9:45): 91.0 versus 90.9 prior.
ISM Index, February (10:00): 51.0 versus 49.9 prior.
Construction Spending, January (10:00): 0.1% versus 0.2% prior.

TEAM TRADES

QQQ: After we figured out that part of the problem with the selloff this morning was another rumor about troops in Iraq and we saw the Nasdaq hold at 1745, we decided to add to some QQQ positions to take advantage of a continued move up toward 36.25 or so. We saw it bottom and then decided to take some quick action. The April 29 calls (the index was at 34.80) were trading 6.20 by 6.40. These are very liquid options, and we thought about trying to shave the spread. The index was moving quickly, however, so we went ahead and put in a limit order at 6.40. The fills on these are instantaneous. The QQQ ran up to 35.10, then 35.30 in the last hour. It looked as if the recovery scenario we were playing was working well. The Nasdaq ran out of steam toward the close, however, and the Q's fell back to 34.90 on the close. The last bid and ask was 6.30 by 6.50; we were right in the middle after it was all over. We need to be careful with these; we did not like the pattern of the Nasdaq on the close.

THE PLAYS: Great moves all over the SSR! Check out DHI, BMS, RYL, FLIR, HTLD, VAR, STU and GTK, with our downside plays shaping up as well.

BONUS PLAY: Great moves all around! IR has just blasted up! Nice breakouts by UPS and NCOG, and WTSLA continued up as well.

BAX (Baxter International--$54.50; -0.36; optionable): Medical instruments.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bax.html
STATUS: BAX has been plowing up from its November low at 45, making three solid bounces from the 50 day MVA (currently 53.81) on the way. On one of the recent surges it made a new high, taking out the left side of a 'v'-shaped cup. After hitting a high of 57.02 just over a week ago, BAX has pulled back, but today it tapped down to the 50 day at its low and pulled back up to close with a perfect 'hammer' doji. Volume was up and strong (3.41 million; average 2.27 million), adding to the strength of the bounce signal. Looking for BAX to make the bounce move, and we will target the short-term play up at 59.
BUY POINT: Over 55 with continued strong volume. Stop: 53.
POSITION: Stock and/or May $50 calls to buy (BAX EJ).

Quick updates prior bonus plays. Still looking to hit the buy points.
ROST - Continues to look good.
IDTI - Put. Tried the 200 day and dove back on big volume today.
RMCI - Another good move Monday.
DRIV - Put. Still weak and dropping after testing the 10 day.
ANSI - Big move through the 50 day, but weak volume. We will see.
MSM - Good bounce and trying for more.
ATK - Resting a bit after its good move, and could test the 10 day.
SEE - Still holding the 10 day.

MARKET FAVORITES: Monday's plays, PRIA and CHKP, still set up.
1) PWAV - Put revisited as it makes a weak bounce
2) NEWP - Another weak bounce after a mighty fall

PWAV (Powerwave--$14.15; +0.59; optionable): Telecommunications.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pwav.html
STATUS: Put. After making the big move down last week and triggering a put play, PWAV reached down toward the initial target of 12 (low Friday of 12.60) before reversing with the Nasdaq and making a bit of a move up. We are not perturbed, as after the initial turnaround the stock has not generated much volume as it creeps up. Today it made a bit of a move, but volume was at 1.52 million (average 1.62 million). A weak bounce, and after PWAV gave up its 200 day (15.49) in a big way, we are still biased to the downside. We could get more of a test upward, but that would be fine, as we can take new or additional positions on a drop back down. Still initially eying 12, but we could get a move down to sturdier support at 10.
BUY POINT: After a bit more of a move up toward 15, a drop back through 14 on increased selling volume.
POSITION: May $20 puts to buy (VFQ QD).

NEWP (Newport--$20.44; -0.02; optionable): Scientific & Technical Instruments.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/newp.html
STATUS: Put. Made a double top in January-February, actually not making it back to the January high before dropping off very hard last week. The drop took NEWP from 25 down to a low of 18.50, from where it has bounced with the market but on low volume (867,400; average 1.1 million). After a decent move up Monday the stock showed a doji today under the 10 day MVA (20.98), and looks poised to fall again. On the selling we will target 16.
BUY POINT: Below 20 on increased volume.
POSITION: May $25 puts to buy (NZZ QE - 33 open interest).

Quick updates of prior Market Favorites. All are puts waiting for the buy point:

EMLX - Stymied under the 10 day for now.
SRNA - Has tapped at 18 at its low twice.
DPMI - Held support at the 200 day this time.
YHOO - Moved up to the 10 day, but showed a 'hanging man' doji there today.
AMD - Set up to fall back again after a doji under the 10 day.

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK: No announcement from AZO (but earnings looked good) or DHI, but a great breakout by DHI! Looking at INVN Thursday.

NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAY:

DRYR (Dreyers Grand Ice Cream--$43.49; +0.14; no options): Working on a split date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dryr.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 10-27-97 at a price of $42. Before that it announced in October 1990 at about the same price range. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-9-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
STATUS: DRYR broke from a large cup with handle pattern in December, and hit a high of 44.20 before testing back to its 50 day MVA (currently 39.76). Last week the stock bounced strongly from that support, tapping at the high but resting the last two sessions on reduced volume, today showing a loose doji after testing 42.22 at its low (volume down to 262,500; average 244,100). DRYR is in a small (5-week) 'flying w' pattern, and could be forming a bit of a handle here. We will look for the stock to hold up over 42 as it moves on low volume, and look for a breakout to a new high. Target: 50.
BUY POINT: 42.30 on volume of 350,000. Stop: 39.34 (7%).
POSITION: Stock only.

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT BEST PLAYS: Also looking at BER, EXPD and GTK.
1) AZO - Tested back but could roll again on earnings
2) MUR - Blasted through resistance
3) CYN - Looking for a move
4) ESI - Set up nicely
5) DHI - Nice breakout!
6) XL - Starting something?
7) INVN - Forecast for Thursday

AZO (Autozone--$69.50; -0.40; optionable): Auto Parts. Did not get the announcement, but was looking good after hours on earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/azo.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in March of 1994 at a price of $58. The annual shareholder meeting was on 12-14-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized.
STATUS: We have been there before for explosive breakouts with AZO, and we will see what we get this time as the company appeared to announce solid earnings. AZO broke from an ascending wedge pattern last week, but has slowed and after Monday's tight 'star' doji on strong volume, appeared destined for a pullback. It did, today testing the 10 day MVA (68.27) at its low before moving back up a bit to close. Volume was appropriately down on the pullback (1.19 million; average 1.2 million), and with earnings we will see if we get a nice bounce back. The ascending wedge formed over the last month, and formed as the stock held the 50 day (66.69) after a pullback from its high of 80. That is the target.
BUY POINT: From here: Over 70 on increased volume. Stop: 65.20 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or June $65 calls to buy. (AZO FN).

MUR (Murphy Oil--$85.46; +1.16; optionable): Working on a new date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mur.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that MUR has ever split its stock. Authorized shares were increased at the last shareholder meeting.
STATUS: MUR has shot up the last three sessions, receiving another jolt of volume today as it made it over triple tops at 85. MUR made those tops with three bottoms at 65-70 as it moved in a range in July-December, and after holding the 200 day (78) the last time down, we were looking for the stock to break out to the upside. It still faces its high (from May) at 87.85, and the stock could use a rest before taking out that level. With current positions at 100, but in the shorter term we will see how it handles the high, expecting a bit of a pause before the move over that level.
BUY POINT: Riding current positions. Looking for new positions on a break to a new high over 87.85. Stop: 81.79 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or July $85 calls to buy (MUR GQ).

CYN (City National--$50.42; +0.02; optionable): Regional bank. Researching a split date for this stock.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cyn.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it appears that CYN split its stock in 1990 in the $40 range. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
STATUS: In January CYN broke from a cup formed since August, and after hitting a high of 51.65 it dropped back for a test of the 50 day (then 47, now 48.37). It has formed an ascending wedge since bouncing from the 50 day, first challenging its high but pulling back to support at its 18 day MVA (50.04). It is holding firm there, Monday getting a volume spike on a move up, but today settling back for another doji on low volume (166,300; average 201,200). Looking for a breakout. Excellent relative strength. Target: 60.
BUY POINT: 51.75 on volume of 260,000. Stop: 48.13 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or May $45 calls to buy (CYN EI - under 100 open interest).

ESI (ITT Educational Services--$43.00; -0.15; optionable): Education & Training. Working on a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esi.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that ESI has ever split its stock.
STATUS: Recently broke over the October-November highs at the end of January (which made the left side of a saucer), and now has moved up toward the July high (46.25), which is the left side high of something of a cup pattern (with the deep September dive preceding the saucer). ESI is now holding in a handle consolidation that is holding over the 10 day MVA (42.84), today showing a 'shooting star' doji (high 43.70) on increased volume of 155,400 (average 136,300). Looks poised to make the move. Target: 52.
BUY POINT: 44.35 on volume of 200,000. Stop: 41.75.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $40 calls to buy (ESI GH - no open interest as yet).

DHI (D.R. Horton--$39.18; +1.84; optionable): Residential construction. Forecast to announce a split with a board meeting on 2-26-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dhi.html
BACKGROUND: Last split 7:5 in September 1995 at $15.
STATUS: Breakout! DHI had tightened into a nice pennant pattern over the 18 day MVA (36.58), and Tuesday gapped up to open and then took out our buy point, sounding an alert and continuing up on very strong volume (2.16 million; average 1.02 million). Intraday it hit up to 40 before pulling back to close. DHI broke from a cup with handle in late November, and since has made a couple of solid bounces after leveling out following moves of about 8 points. We are looking at the current move to continue up to a target of 45; its upper channel trendline is currently at 40, so we could see a rest when the stock intersects that line, although by the time it gets there it could be in the 42 range.
BUY POINT: For new positions, still a buy up to 39.90. Stop: 37.10 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or May $35 calls to buy (DHI EG).

XL (XL Capital--$94.55; +1.11; optionable): Working on an announcement date, but are looking at a board meeting the first week in April.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xl.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that XL has ever split its stock. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: After the big breakout move a week ago, XL topped out at 98.48 and peeled back. It has dropped back through its former highs (at 96, from its November pennant), but has held the 18 day MVA (92.39), tapping that level intraday three times the past week. Today XL did not test back, instead heading up on increased volume (928,100; average 869,100), hitting the buy point on a bounce play. On the move we will see how it handles the high, and on a move over that level we are targeting 110.
BUY POINT: Momentum: Over 95 on increased volume. Stop: 92.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $90 calls to buy (XL GR).

INVN (Invision Technologies--$39.03; +0.49; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 2-28-02 in conjunction with a special meeting to increase authorized shares.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/invn.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that INVN has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-21-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. A special meeting is scheduled for 2-28-02 at 9:30 PST. The purpose of the special meeting is to increase authorized shares. The company has sufficient shares for a 3:2 split.
STATUS: Looking at the special meeting Thursday morning for an announcement, and INVN is hanging tough. The stock took off in December to its high 47.09, tested the 50 day MVA (then 25, now 34.31) and formed a cup, challenging the high. It fell back again, making double tops of which we must always be wary as that pattern is bearish. INVN has held on pretty well, however, showing a low volume consolidation along the short-term MVA's (18 day at 38.41). Today the stock again tested below the 18 day but managed to close over that mark, as volume remained very low at 722,700 (average 2.9 million). We will look for a strong move out of the recent pattern, and a split announcement could help it.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 40 on above average volume. Stop: 38. Over the recent high: 42.74 on above average volume. Stop: 39.75 (7%).
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or July $35 calls to buy (FQQ GG). Over recent high: Stock and/or July $40 calls to buy (FQQ GH).

PRE-SPLITS BEST PLAYS: Remember, we try to grab these as they break out of good patterns or as they start a run right before the split. Not looking for home runs, but looking for those $3 to $4 moves running into the split, watching for topping signs and potential resistance. Not huge money, but it can be very steady. We set our initial stops at the 7-8% range below the purchase price (or just below obvious support), and move them up on a move to preserve our profits.
1) GILD - Started a move
2) PMI - Looks ready to spring
3) WLP - Could also jump here

GILD (Gilead Sciences--$68.93; +1.45; optionable): Splits 2:1 effective March 8.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gild.html
STATUS: GILD has been dipping back and forth over the 50 day MVA (66.36), and we have been waiting for the stock to show us a solid break from that level. With pre-splits, we look for the stock to show us when it wants to move, and then we play it for what the move will give us, and then we get out when it shows it has topped. Today, GILD finally showed a move off of the 50 day, gapping up and then continuing with a nice move. Volume was down (1.79 million; average 2.15 million), but with pre-splits we are not as concerned with volume, riding the momentum of the moves that can come with the pre-split volatility. Today GILD tapped up to 69.55, which is just above its down trendline connecting November-February highs. We will see if it can take out that line for positions, targeting 74 on a quick pre-split play (high is 73.67).
PLAY: A move over 69.50, with stock and/or April $65 calls to buy (QDG EM - under 50 open interest).

PMI (Pmi Group--$70.40; -0.59; optionable): Surety & Title Insurance. Announced a 2:1 stock split, effective date to be determined.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pmi.html
STATUS: Could be ready to make a move. PMI has been steadily trending up its 18 day MVA (70.42) as it moves up in the right side of its cup pattern (dating back to June, with the left side high at 74.50; all-time high at 74.94). It is holding right at that level, today dipping back slightly, but volume picked up sharply to 538,100 (average 242,000). Looking for a bounce, with the most recent high at 73.25, and the high at 74.94. Targeting 80 on the longer term plays we are in, with 76 the quick target on this bounce before a pullback in the uptrend.
PLAY: From here: Can still catch PMI on a bounced over 71.50, with stock and/or June $70 calls to buy (PFI FN), with calls being the position of choice if just playing the bounce. Stop: 67.75.

WLP (Wellpoint Health Networks--$125.44; -0.16; optionable): Announced a 2:1 split, effective March 15.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wlp.html
STATUS: WLP has been riding along its 18 day MVA (126.03), having recently broken out of a cup and to a new high. We have been looking for a bounce play, and WLP has continued to hold around the 18 day with several consecutive dojis. Volume has picked up the last couple of sessions (593,000 today; average 510,800) as WLP showed tight patterns just under the 18 day, so we will see if it can generate the move. We are targeting our longer-term positions for 140, and on the bounce play initially targeting 134 on the quick play, but on a continued show of strength can ride up to 140.
PLAY: A move over 127.50 on above average volume, with April $120 calls to buy (WLP DD).

End Part 2 of 4

us stock market
stock trading information