us stock market, stock watch

Begin Part 3 of 4

CONTINUING CANDIDATES BEST PLAYS: STJ broke out.
1) HB - Poised for a move
2) ETH - Strong comeback!
3) DHR - Testing back nicely
4) MI - Trying to set up a move
5) TGH - Still a nice pattern
6) YUM - Resting after the nice breakout
7) APPB - Set up for another drop
8) BBY - At resistance again and looking to fall

HB (Hillenbrand--$59.87; +0.57; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hb.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that HB has ever split its stock. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: In the nice pennant pattern, and today HB moved back up from the support of the 18 day MVA (59.19) with a big volume spike (317,400; average 139,800). Looking good, and with the high volume on the move up from support (stopping just short of our aggressive buy point) we are watching for a strong move out of the pattern. HB made a big breakout move at the beginning of this month, moving from a jagged cup with handle. Target: 70.
BUY POINT: Breakout: Over 60.95 on continued strong volume. Stop: 57. Aggressive: Over 60.25 on continued strong volume. Stop: 57.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $55 calls to buy (HB FK - under 100 open interest).

ETH (Ethan Allen--$39.30; +1.90; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eth.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 4-28-99, approximately 2 weeks after earnings release. The stock price was $35. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-15-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: ETH did not break down out of its November-February head and shoulders, finding support at the 200 day MVA (36.04). It continued to be mired in a downtrend, but today it blasted up, taking out its short-term (38.06) and 50 day (38.43) MVA's. Volume was great at 516,300 (average 196,000). A solid move with no news, so we will see if it can continue to show strength as it builds a move back toward the high of 43.45. The former 'shoulder' highs are at 40.26, and we can look for a break over that level for new positions. Target: 48.
BUY POINT: 40.36 on continued strong volume. Stop: 37.53 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or May $35 calls to buy (ETH EG).

DHR (Danaher--$67.85; -1.58; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dhr.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 3-6-98 with a board meeting. The stock price was $70. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-1-01 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has enough shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: DHR broke from an ascending wedge that served as the right shoulder in a reverse head and shoulders. Since that mid-February move, DHR has tested the 10 day MVA once and hit a high of 69.94 (former high 69.81 from late 2000) this week. Today the stock pulled back from its Monday doji, but fell on lighter volume (1.45 million; average 1.12 million). Not bad action, and we will look for another test of the 10 day (currently 66.64) for positions for a bounce and continuation upward. Targeting 72 with current positions; the next bounce could be a quick play.
BUY POINT: After showing it can hold the 10 day, a bounce back over 67.50 on volume in the 1.5 million range. Stop: 64.
POSITION: June $60 calls to buy (DHR FL).

MI (Marshall & Ilsley--$60.95; -0.09; optionable): Regional bank.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mi.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that MI has ever split its stock. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: After falling back from its recent high of 64.24, MI tested its 200 day MVA (57), but is trying to fight back. MI has battled its 50 day MVA (60.44) the last couple of weeks, holding over the level the last few sessions but battling with recent highs just over 61. Today MI reached up over 61 but pulled back again to close, moving on volume of 390,000 (average 401,700). Showing something of an ascending wedge here, and MI could give us a good move on a breakout. On the move we will watch the recent high, but target 70. Excellent money flow and buying.
BUY POINT: 61.50 on volume of 540,000. Stop: 59.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $55 calls to buy (MI FK - low open interest).

TGH (Trigon Healthcare--$74.96; +0.16; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tgh.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that TGH has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-25-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: TGH made a nice breakout from a 3-month cup with handle in January, and after a good run has pulled back into another handle to its larger, 13-month cup with handle base (left-side high 81.50). TGH hit 79 before pulling back, and has been moving over the support of the 18 day (74.70). It pulled back to the 18 day Monday, holding that support today as volume continued to decrease (122,600; average 192,200). Looking for a continued hold of support and then a blast upward. Our original target for positions taken last month was 84, although we looked at taking some money off the table when the stock was topping recently. If it can make a new breakout move, targeting 92.
BUY POINT: From here: Over 76.50 on volume of 200,000 or better. Stop: 71.50 (50 day at 71.88). Breakout is over the recent high at 79, with volume of 300,000. Stop: 73.56.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $70 calls to buy (TGH GO - under 100 open interest).

YUM (Tricon Global--$57.90; -0.30; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 2-12-02 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/yum.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that YUM has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-17-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Nice breakout! We had been looking for the next move after we caught the YUM breakout in January, and after setting up an ascending wedge YUM took off again Monday on great volume. It tapped as high as 58.76, pulling back slightly today, resting with a doji on lower, below average volume (711,300; average 762,000). Not bad, and we are still looking at a target of 62. We can look at new or additional positions on a test of the former highs at 56 that holds and then makes a strong move back up.
BUY POINT: Test: If we get a low volume test of the 56 range (10 day at 56.32), a move back over 57 on above average volume. Stop: 55.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $55 calls to buy (YUM GK).

APPB (Applebee's--$34.43; +0.18; optionable): Restaurant.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/appb.html
STATUS: APPB dropped hard through the 50 day MVA (34.57), creating a put play that went down to 31.80 before reversing. It has now battled back, but is having trouble at the resistance of the 50 day, showing a doji today under that level as volume continued to be low on the rebound (up to 384,400; average 451,000). After the classic weak bounce back up to support, APPB is set up for another fall, and we can pick up new positions on a drop back. Still targeting the 200 day MVA, at 31.13.
BUY POINT: On a drop back through 34 on increased volume near the average.
POSITION: May $40 puts to buy (AQB QH).

BBY (Best Buy--$70.00; +0.75; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bby.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 2-22-99 with a board meeting. The stock price was $95. Prior to that announced a 2:1 split on 4-24-98 with a board meeting. The stock price was $71. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Another put play that hit the buy point, but unlike APPB, BBY quickly reversed. It hit down to 65.70 last Friday, but bounced off of that session's doji; however, the move up is weak, coming on decreasing volume and stopping shy of the 50 day MVA (70.56). With the weak move and the resistance just ahead (18 day just above the 50 day), we are looking for the move to fail and for BBY to head down the to the target on the original play, 63 (200 day MVA at 62.74).
BUY POINT: Riding existing positions. For new puts, a move below 69 on increased volume (down to 2.7 million today; average 2.9 million).
POSITION: April $80 puts to buy (BBY PP - no open interest).

POST SPLITS BEST PLAYS:
1) HTLD - Strong breakout!
2) MGAM - Setting up

HTLD (Heartland Express--$24.00; +1.01; optionable): Split 3:2 effective 2-20-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/htld.html
STATUS: Nice move the past week! HTLD bounced from the 50 day MVA (21.32) on the split, and volume has continued to climb. Today HTLD blasted to a new high (over 23.58), running on volume of 448,300 (average 190,300). Great momentum, and still a buy on the breakout move to 24.76. With this move, however, it could need a rest, so we will see if it can hold the former high, and we can look at new or additional positions from there. Target: 28.
PLAY: Still a buy up to 24.76 on continued strong volume. On a pullback we will look for HTLD to hold 23.58, and we can look for positions on a move back over 24 on continued strong volume. Stock and/or June $20 calls to buy (QHK FD - no open interest). Stop: 22.50.

MGAM (Multimedia Games--$28.65; +0.07; optionable): Split 3:2 on February 12.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mgam.html
STATUS: MGAM is setting up in a pennant, with the 18 day MVA (27.21) acting as support on intraday lows. Today it tapped back near the support again, but pulled back up to show a doji as volume dipped backed to low levels (129,200; average 235,000). We could see another test of the 18 day, but are looking for volume to kick in a drive MGAM to a breakout. The high is 30.81. Good money flow and relative strength. Target: 35.
PLAY: Over 30 on volume of 320,000. Stop: 28 (7%). New high: 30.91 on volume of 320,000. Stop: 28.75 (7%). Stock and/or July $25 calls to buy (QMG GE - no open interest). The high is 30.81.

End part 3 of 4

us stock market
stock watch