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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS: Looking at quite a few as looking at both upside and downside for the week ahead.
Upside: Some China, some medical/healthcare stocks looks very nice.
Play Date: 01/26/2008
CCC (Calgon Carbon--$15.57; -0.43; optionable): Air and water purification services (carbon based)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ccc.html
EARNINGS: Early February
STATUS: Ascending base. Nice run off of the lows from a long decline that ended in second half 2006. After a strong run higher through October, it needed to consolidate, and it has spent the past 4 months moving in an ascending trading range, making higher lows as it pushes against a constant top near 16. Excellent pattern building pressure for the break higher and our buy point.
Volume: 695.212K Avg Volume: 730.589K
BUY POINT: $16.21 Volume=1.1M Target=$19.75 Stop=$15.17
POSITION: CCC DC - Apr. $15c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ccc.html
Play Date: 01/26/2008
CHU (China Unicom--$22.29; -0.18; optionable): Wireless telecom, China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chu.html
EARNINGS: Last week of January, but not confirmed by company
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Another Chinese stock that is setting up for a breakout despite the US market's woes. Nice 12 week base formed making higher lows up the 90 day SMA below a constant top near 23.75. Excellent upside volume last week as CHU moved up to the top of its base. Looking for it to make the breakout on strong volume to give us the entry point.
Volume: 1.519M Avg Volume: 1.67M
BUY POINT: $23.77 Volume=2.5M Target=$28.75 Stop=$22.11
POSITION: CHU DX - Apr. $22.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/chu.html
Play Date: 01/26/2008
VVUS (Vivus--$6.05; +0.09; optionable): Obesity, sexual health products for men and women
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vvus.html
EARNINGS: Second week of February
STATUS: Test breakout. Two areas where a company in the US can count on customers: weight loss and sex. VVUS broke higher two weeks back, surging out of a 9 month flat base. Stronger, above average volume on the break higher and a lower volume test or consolidation the past week, working laterally as the 10 day EMA (5.89) rose to meet it. Like how it is not giving up the gains, and looking to move in as VVUS makes the next break higher on rising volume.
Volume: 375.957K Avg Volume: 501.086K
BUY POINT: $6.24 Volume=750K Target=$7.95 Stop=$5.87
POSITION: QJS FA - June $5c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vvus.html
Downside: Again, time to have some plays ready to go for when the market rolls over.
Play Date: 01/26/2008
AMX (America Movil--$55.09; -1.92; optionable): South American wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amx.html
EARNINGS: 2-6-08
STATUS: Head and shoulders. AMX broke lower from a 7 month head and shoulders base two weeks back, crashing lower from the 200 day SMA (60.22) after trying to hold the line at that level. Rebounded on the market reversal last week, rallying to the 18 day EMA (57.06) on Thursday and showing a big doji that could indicate the bounce was over. Friday AMX gapped higher with the market but it rolled over to close below the 10 day EMA. Looks ready to continue lower from here. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 7.86M Avg Volume: 6.912M
BUY POINT: $54.74 Volume=7.8M Target=$51.45 Stop=$56.26
POSITION: AMX OK - Mar. $55c (-42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amx.html
Play Date: 01/26/2008
CMI (Cummins--$49.02; +2.82; optionable): Large truck engines, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmi.html
EARNINGS: 2-1-08
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Rallied with the market last week, moving to the 18 day EMA (50.31) on the Friday high but fading back off that level as the market sold back. CMI broke lower from its 6 month head and shoulders the first week of January, crashing through the 200 day SMA (55.33) and tumbling lower. The rebound has tested near resistance, and looking for CMI to make its own rollover here. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 4.563M Avg Volume: 3.67M
BUY POINT: $47.54 Volume=4.5M Target=$42.15 Stop=$48.32
POSITION: CDM OJ - Mar. $50p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cmi.html
Play Date: 01/26/2008
FLR (Fluor Corp.--$120.95; -3.49; optionable): Heavy construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flr.html
EARNINGS: Second week of February
STATUS: Put. FLR made a series of lower highs from October through early January, and then crashed lower in the hard market selling two weeks back. It fell through the 200 day SMA (126.40) then rebounded this week to test that key level. It failed to take it out on Thursday and Friday after moving through it both sessions, reversing on Friday. When a stock falls through this key support and cannot get back, that is a sign it is heading even lower. A move to the target lands a 38%ish gain.
Volume: 1.932M Avg Volume: 1.997M
BUY POINT: $120.37 Volume=2.3M Target=$112.15 Stop=$122.32
POSITION: FLR OD - Mar. $120p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/flr.html
Play Date: 01/26/2008
MCRS (Micros System--$59.28; -1.02; optionable): Information systems for retail, hospitality industries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mcrs.html
EARNINGS: 1-31-08
STATUS: Put. Topped in November and December and dove lower through Tuesday, crashing the 200 day SMA (60.87) on the way down. The rebound last week took MCRS back up to the 200 day, but it reversed at that level Friday after showing a doji there on Thursday. Looking for another turn down after this initial bounce from the selling. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 298.963K Avg Volume: 374.306K
BUY POINT: $58.82 Volume=500K Target=$53.75 Stop=$61.32
POSITION: MFK OL - Mar. $60p (-41 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mcrs.html
Play Date: 01/26/2008
QID (QQQ Proshares UltraShort ETF--$51.12; +2.36; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qid.html
STATUS: Test breakout. This is one of those ETF's you buy to the upside when you think the sector or market covered is heading lower. We are looking for the large cap techs to turn back down after the reboundin the market, and they rolled over Friday after moving to the 18 day EMA. That pushed QID higher. Looking to move in on a continued rally. A move to the target lands a 55%ish gain on the option play.
Volume: 36.428M Avg Volume: 32.736M
BUY POINT: $51.32 Volume=39M Target=$57.32 Stop=$49.11
POSITION: QID CY - Mar. $51c (56 delta, 52 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/qid.html
Play Date: 01/26/2008
SII (Smith International--$61.98; +0.15; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sii.html
EARNINGS: 1-29-08
STATUS: Double top. SII formed a double top spanning the October and December peaks. It dove lower after those twin peaks, falling through the 200 day SMA (62.66) on the plunge, then rebounded this past week to test, but on lower and lower volume. Friday it rallied through the 200 day early in the session, but as the market faded it reversed and closed below that key level, showing a doji on the candlestick chart. That indicates the rebound is over. Looking to move in as SII turns back down. A move to the target lands a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 3.675M Avg Volume: 2.786M
BUY POINT: $61.32 Volume=4M Target=$56.11 Stop=$62.82
POSITION: SIK OZ - Mar. $62.50p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sii.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/23/2008
OMCL (Omnicell--$28.53; -0.76; optionable): Medication control, patient safety for acute care facilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/omcl.html
EARNINGS: 1/31/08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Gapped higher Friday but sold back, unable to hold the breakout move. Will look for it to hold a test of 28ish early this week and then try the breakout move again. To recap: Excellent action in a weak market as OMCL breaks higher Wednesday on strong volume out of its 15 week base. Looking at OMCL you would never know there was a major market selloff the past several weeks; it formed its base above the 200 day SMA, showing just the kind of accumulation you want to see. Nice swell in volume ahead of the breakout, and ready to take some positions on a continued upside move and then add to the position as it makes its test.
Volume: 726.01K Avg Volume: 500.965K
BUY POINT: $29.55 Volume=550K Target=$33.95 Stop=$27.54
POSITION: UMK EF - May $30c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/omcl.html
Play Date: 01/23/2008
PPDI (Pharmaceutical Product Dev.--$43.65; -0.41; optionable): Drug discovery and development services, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ppdi.html
EARNINGS: 2-6-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Still testing, holding above the 50 day EMA on low volume to end the week. Nice orderly test and ready to make the break higher at any time. To recap: PPDI surged higher to start January, breaking out of a 10 week base that consolidated the October breakout from a much larger 16 month cup base. It broke higher this year on news it upped its guidance. Strong move in a weak market. After that breakout it used the selling to test; as the market rebounded this week it has come back, tapping at the 50 day EMA (42.83) on the Wednesday low before rebounding to cut its losses. Nice low volume test of the breakout move except for Wednesday, and that was a reversal session off of key support. Looking for a continued rebound to give us the buy point. Like to buy off the breakout test, particularly in this market.
Volume: 613.849K Avg Volume: 916.127K
BUY POINT: $45.22 Volume=1.4M Target=$51.95 Stop=$43.68
POSITION: PJQ DI - Apr. $45c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ppdi.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/24/2008
NILE (Blue Nile--$56.44; +0.01; optionable): Online diamond sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nile.html
EARNINGS: 2-12-08
STATUS: Put. We were getting enticed by NILE Friday as it showed a tight doji just below the 18 day EMA (57.10) on lower volume as it made the rebound. We decided to wait for this week to see if it continues lower off that doji. If it does we are ready to move in. To recap: NILE made us a nice chunk of change on its last sharp decline just a couple of weeks back. It has rebounded with the market and the retailers the pat week, rallying to tap the 18 day EMA on the Thursday high. Volume, while still strong, has tailed off as it has made this move. Thursday volume fell back to average as it moved up to resistance at the 18 day EMA. This is the resistance that held it in check on the last bounce the second week of January, and before that it tested the 50 day EMA on its bounce. Thus it likely turns down at this resistance once again unless the rest of the market really rallies higher and carries it with it. Looking for a rollover on some rising trade to move into the next downside play.
Volume: 536.166K Avg Volume: 693.578K
BUY POINT: $55.32 Volume=850K Target=$47.45 Stop=$57.31
POSITION: JWU OK - Mar. $55p (-38 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nile.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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