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us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/28/2008
AGN (Allergan--$64.22; +0.44; optionable): Diversified pharmaceutical & medical products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agn.html
EARNINGS: 1-30-08
STATUS: Trading range. AGN is working in a 4 month trading range using the 200 day SMA (62.51) to make higher lows in its range. It came back to test the 200 day last week, holding that level nicely. It tested it again Monday on the intraday low, but again it snapped right back up to close, showing a nice doji with tail. After a pullback that often indicates the bounce is coming. Volume was up as it snapped back, showing, there were buyers stepping in at the lower level. Looking to ride AGN back up on the bounce in its trading range. If it breaks out, great. Using options to give us better leverage on the play.
Volume: 2.567M Avg Volume: 1.93M
BUY POINT: $64.55 Volume=2.5M Target=$69.50 Stop=$62.87
POSITION: AGN DM - Apr. $65c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/agn.html
Play Date: 01/28/2008
HWAY (Healthways--$66.59; +2.83; optionable): Population screening for health risks, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hway.html
EARNINGS: Announced 12-19-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Big surge early this year out of a 13 week trading range, taking HWAY to a new high. Nice orderly test the past two weeks as it came back to test near support at the 18 day EMA (65.15). Very steady fade, using the market selling to test he breakout, then bouncing Monday on rising, above average trade. If it shows continued solid volume on the bounce it is a buy.
Volume: 646.78K Avg Volume: 488.576K
BUY POINT: $67.21 Volume=700K Target=$77.31 Stop=$63.25
POSITION: QMH EM - May $65c (61 delta, 79 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hway.html
Play Date: 01/28/2008
PFCB (PF Changs--$27.86; +0.41; optionable): Restaurants (Pei Wei, PF Chang's)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfcb.html
EARNINGS: 2-13-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. After a 12 month downtrend, PFCB jumped higher last week on strong trade, clearing the 50 day EMA and the 90 day SMA (26.82) on the surge. After that strong move it has tested, the past three sessions, tapping at the 90 day on the Monday low and rebounding to close positive. No volume on the session; need to see that come in as it makes the bounce back up off of the test, showing us the buyers are back in. Nice strong trend reversal that we can at least make a trade up toward the 200 day SMA (32) on to the down trendline at 34.50.
Volume: 820.551K Avg Volume: 1.011M
BUY POINT: $28.48 Volume=1.5M Target=$32.75 Stop=$26.77
POSITION: HUO DE - Apr. $25c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/pfcb.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/28/2008
DXD (ProShares DJ30 UltraShort ETF--$57.09; -1.55; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dxd.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. As DJ30 sold off in January DXD surged higher (moves inversely to the actual index moves). It peaked as DJ30 reversed last week. It has come back to the 18 day EMA (56.04) and bounced. Monday DXD sold back as DJ30 rallied some more. Want to be in position to move in if the Dow stalls here at near resistance. If it continues higher, we will move the buy point down accordingly and be ready to enter when the Dow's move stalls.
Volume: 5.388M Avg Volume: 3.96M
BUY POINT: $58.72 Volume=5.9M Target=$65.00 Stop=$55.96
POSITION: DXD DC - Apr. $55c (62 delta, 141 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dxd.html
Play Date: 01/28/2008
XLF (Financial Sector ETF--$28.15; +0.97; optionable): Financials
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xlf.html
STATUS: Put. After moving higher 4 out of 5 sessions and tapping the 50 day EMA (28.91) on the Monday high before backing off, we are preparing to move into the downside if the XLF financial ETF peaks out and heads back down. Low volume as it testes the 50 day EMA as volume declined the past three sessions as it tested. It stalled at the 50 day on its last bounce in late November through early December, and we are looking for a stall out here to take it lower and give us a nice entry point. A move to the target lands a 60%ish gain.
Volume: 92.04M Avg Volume: 106.209M
BUY POINT: $27.22 Volume=110M Target=$25.00 Stop=$28.54
POSITION: XLF OC - Mar. $29p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xlf.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/26/2008
CCC (Calgon Carbon--$15.14; -0.43; optionable): Air and water purification services (carbon based)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ccc.html
EARNINGS: Early February
STATUS: Ascending base. Continued its test back, looking to make a higher low at the 50 day EMA (14.93), tapping that level on the low and bouncing back to cut its losses. Lower, below average volume. Still setting up nicely for the break higher. To recap: Nice run off of the lows from a long decline that ended in second half 2006. After a strong run higher through October, it needed to consolidate, and it has spent the past 4 months moving in an ascending trading range, making higher lows as it pushes against a constant top near 16. Excellent pattern building pressure for the break higher and our buy point.
Volume: 610.843K Avg Volume: 730.589K
BUY POINT: $16.21 Volume=1.1M Target=$19.75 Stop=$15.17
POSITION: CCC DC - Apr. $15c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ccc.html
Play Date: 01/26/2008
CHU (China Unicom--$22.78; +0.49; optionable): Wireless telecom, China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chu.html
EARNINGS: Last week of January, but not confirmed by company
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Held the 18 day EMA on a modest gap lower and bounced positive. Excellent price action though volume fell back below average. Excellent pattern setting up for the breakout. To recap: Another Chinese stock that is setting up for a breakout despite the US market's woes. Nice 12 week base formed making higher lows up the 90 day SMA below a constant top near 23.75. Excellent upside volume last week as CHU moved up to the top of its base. Looking for it to make the breakout on strong volume to give us the entry point.
Volume: 1.083M Avg Volume: 1.67M
BUY POINT: $23.77 Volume=2.5M Target=$28.75 Stop=$22.11
POSITION: CHU DX - Apr. $22.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/chu.html
Play Date: 01/23/2008
OMCL (Omnicell--$28.22; -0.31; optionable): Medication control, patient safety for acute care facilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/omcl.html
EARNINGS: 1/31/08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Testing back a bit further, tapping the 10 day EMA on the low and bouncing modestly. Nice test and now it is ready to move higher. To recap: Excellent action in a weak market as OMCL breaks higher Wednesday on strong volume out of its 15 week base. Looking at OMCL you would never know there was a major market selloff the past several weeks; it formed its base above the 200 day SMA, showing just the kind of accumulation you want to see. Nice swell in volume ahead of the breakout, and ready to take some positions on a continued upside move and then add to the position as it makes its test.
Volume: 586.47K Avg Volume: 500.913K
BUY POINT: $29.55 Volume=550K Target=$33.95 Stop=$27.54
POSITION: UMK EF - May $30c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/omcl.html
Play Date: 01/23/2008
PPDI (Pharmaceutical Product Dev.--$44.51; +0.86; optionable): Drug discovery and development services, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ppdi.html
EARNINGS: 2-6-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Strong volume Monday as PPDI bounced upside, looking to start the next leg of its breakout move. Tapped the 18 day EMA on the high (44.80) and faded back to close but still set up well to make the run higher. To recap: PPDI surged higher to start January, breaking out of a 10 week base that consolidated the October breakout from a much larger 16 month cup base. It broke higher this year on news it upped its guidance. Strong move in a weak market. After that breakout it used the selling to test; as the market rebounded this week it has come back, tapping at the 50 day EMA (42.83) on the Wednesday low before rebounding to cut its losses. Nice low volume test of the breakout move except for Wednesday, and that was a reversal session off of key support. Looking for a continued rebound to give us the buy point. Like to buy off the breakout test, particularly in this market.
Volume: 1.669M Avg Volume: 891.91K
BUY POINT: $45.22 Volume=1.4M Target=$51.95 Stop=$43.68
POSITION: PJQ DI - Apr. $45c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ppdi.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/26/2008
AMX (America Movil--$56.96; +1.87; optionable): South American wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amx.html
EARNINGS: 2-6-08
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Gapped lower Monday but was rebounding from there, moving back up to the 18 day EMA on the close. Volume faded to just a hair above average. AMX has rebounded to some serious resistance at 57.50, and looking for it to turn and fade from there. Moved up the buy point to accommodate the bounce. To recap: AMX broke lower from a 7 month head and shoulders base two weeks back, crashing lower from the 200 day SMA (60.22) after trying to hold the line at that level. Rebounded on the market reversal last week, rallying to the 18 day EMA (57.06) on Thursday and showing a big doji that could indicate the bounce was over. Friday AMX gapped higher with the market but it rolled over to close below the 10 day EMA. Looks ready to continue lower from here. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 7.108M Avg Volume: 6.912M
BUY POINT: $55.97 Volume=7.8M Target=$51.45 Stop=$57.38
POSITION: AMX OK - Mar. $55c (-42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amx.html
Play Date: 01/26/2008
CMI (Cummins--$50.51; +1.49; optionable): Large truck engines, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmi.html
EARNINGS: 2-1-08
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Bounced a bit further Monday, making it to the 18 day EMA on the close on lighter, below average volume. Still looks like a fade out of the rebound move, and looking to play the rollover. To recap: Rallied with the market last week, moving to the 18 day EMA (50.31) on the Friday high but fading back off that level as the market sold back. CMI broke lower from its 6 month head and shoulders the first week of January, crashing through the 200 day SMA (55.33) and tumbling lower. The rebound has tested near resistance, and looking for CMI to make its own rollover here. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 2.831M Avg Volume: 3.67M
BUY POINT: $47.97 Volume=4.5M Target=$42.15 Stop=$48.45
POSITION: CDM OJ - Mar. $50p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cmi.html
Play Date: 01/26/2008
FLR (Fluor Corp.--$121.81; +0.86; optionable): Heavy construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flr.html
EARNINGS: Second week of February
STATUS: Put. Reached lower intraday but then rebounded positive, though on very, very low volume. No buying as it recovered, and it is still in it deep, trading below the important 200 day SMA where the big money either decides to keep a stock or sell it. They have been selling it and looking for FLR to roll back over after this bounce. To recap: FLR made a series of lower highs from October through early January, and then crashed lower in the hard market selling two weeks back. It fell through the 200 day SMA (126.40) then rebounded this week to test that key level. It failed to take it out on Thursday and Friday after moving through it both sessions, reversing on Friday. When a stock falls through this key support and cannot get back, that is a sign it is heading even lower. A move to the target lands a 38%ish gain.
Volume: 1.459M Avg Volume: 1.997M
BUY POINT: $120.37 Volume=2.3M Target=$112.15 Stop=$122.32
POSITION: FLR OD - Mar. $120p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/flr.html
Play Date: 01/26/2008
MCRS (Micros System--$60.49; +1.21; optionable): Information systems for retail, hospitality industries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mcrs.html
EARNINGS: 1-31-08
STATUS: Put. Rallied up off the Friday selling, moving up to the 10 day EMA on the close and still below the 200 day SMA. Volume was up slightly, but still well below average. Still below that 200 day SMA and looking for it to roll over there. To recap: Topped in November and December and dove lower through Tuesday, crashing the 200 day SMA (60.87) on the way down. The rebound last week took MCRS back up to the 200 day, but it reversed at that level Friday after showing a doji there on Thursday. Looking for another turn down after this initial bounce from the selling. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 334.202K Avg Volume: 374.306K
BUY POINT: $59.88 Volume=500K Target=$53.75 Stop=$61.38
POSITION: MFK OL - Mar. $60p (-41 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mcrs.html
Play Date: 01/24/2008
NILE (Blue Nile--$56.11; -0.33; optionable): Online diamond sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nile.html
EARNINGS: 2-12-08
STATUS: Put. NILE is still right below the 18 day EMA (56.99), showing a pair of dojis below that level the past two sessions on very low, below average volume. It is either just resting before it takes it out, or it is ready to roll back down. It has bounced to this resistance in its downtrend and looks ready to turn back lower versus making the break higher. To recap: NILE made us a nice chunk of change on its last sharp decline just a couple of weeks back. It has rebounded with the market and the retailers the pat week, rallying to tap the 18 day EMA on the Thursday high. Volume, while still strong, has tailed off as it has made this move. Thursday volume fell back to average as it moved up to resistance at the 18 day EMA. This is the resistance that held it in check on the last bounce the second week of January, and before that it tested the 50 day EMA on its bounce. Thus it likely turns down at this resistance once again unless the rest of the market really rallies higher and carries it with it. Looking for a rollover on some rising trade to move into the next downside play.
Volume: 467.806K Avg Volume: 691.31K
BUY POINT: $55.32 Volume=850K Target=$47.45 Stop=$57.31
POSITION: JWU OK - Mar. $55p (-38 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nile.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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