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trend trading stock, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS: Some new upside and downside in addition to the other plays on the report that are primed to move and just need the market to get off the fence and make the next definitive move.
Upside:
Play Date: 01/29/2008
CLHB (Clean Harbors--$54.65; +0.87; optionable): Environmental services in North America
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clhb.html
EARNINGS: 2-27-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. CLHB is working in a 3-month lateral trading range over the 50 day EMA (52.72) that is acting as the handle to a large 12 month double bottom with handle base. The handle is interesting as it has formed something of a reverse head and shoulders itself, setting up the break higher. Strong money flow is leading higher, and CLHB is showing solid price/volume action this month (up on up sessions, down volume on down sessions). That shows good accumulation and sets the foundation for the breakout. Very nice strength in a weak market. It did this in the 2001 recession as well.
Volume: 437.847K Avg Volume: 291.84K
BUY POINT: $55.75 Volume=400K Target=$63.95 Stop=$52.65
POSITION: QPB DK - Apr. $55c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/clhb.html
Play Date: 01/29/2008
HD (Home Depot--$29.71; +0.57; optionable): Home improvement stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hd.html
EARNINGS: Mid-February
STATUS: Trend reversal. HD surged higher last week on strong volume, surging through its down trendline running from July to January. After that initial surge it tested, coming back to the 50 day EMA (27.89), tapping that level Monday and bouncing. It continued higher Tuesday on rising, average volume; like to see the volume rebound as the stock does the same. Like to play these trend reversals after the first test holds as that shows the move has support. As HD continues and surpasses the high on the initial trend reversal (30.12) we will look to enter and ride it as a trade up to the 200 day SMA near 34.
Volume: 19.526M Avg Volume: 19.276M
BUY POINT: $30.21 Volume=22M Target=$34.00 Stop=$28.89
POSITION: HD EY - May $27.50c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hd.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/29/2008
CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill--$119.28; -6.09; optionable): Mexican fast food
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmg.html
EARNINGS: 2-14-08
STATUS: Head and shoulders. CMG formed a broad top from the late October peak through the high hit last week before it started to reverse. It fell on stronger volume Tuesday, breaking down from the peak of the right shoulder to its 4 month topping pattern. Looking to ride CMG down near the 110 to the 200 day SMA at 107. That move lands a 30%ish gain or $420/contract.
Volume: 938.78K Avg Volume: 752.446K
BUY POINT: $118.94 Volume=1M Target=$107.15 Stop=$121.32
POSITION: CMG CD - Mar. $120p (-42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cmg.html
Play Date: 01/29/2008
EDU (New Oriental Education & Tech--$55.14; -1.29; optionable): Chinese education and training services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/edu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-15-08
STATUS: Put. Collapsed lower on earnings and tried to hold the 200 day SMA (61). It did for a couple of sessions, then crashed the gate last week, gapping lower. It rebounded to the 200 day on Friday and then slipped back Monday and Tuesday modestly and on low volume. It still looks as if another meltdown is coming, however. Ready to move in as EDU heads lower again. A run to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 384.837K Avg Volume: 751.175K
BUY POINT: $54.77 Volume=750K Target=$47.75 Stop=$56.88
POSITION: EDU OK - Mar. $55p (-41 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/edu.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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