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us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/30/2008
GG (Goldcorp--$38.74; +1.02; optionable): Gold mines and mining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gg.html
EARNINGS: 2/21/08
STATUS: Test breakout. GG broke higher out of a nine week double bottom to start the year. It was not immune to the market selling, however, and fell back hard mid-month. It held at the middle of the pattern at 34 and rebounded. It spent the past four sessions moving laterally on lower volume, resting after the sharp rebound. The action this month has formed a short reverse head and shoulders pattern, an upside pattern. Wednesday GG started to break higher off the 10 day EMA on rising, above average volume. Looks ready to continue the breakout.
Volume: 8.751M Avg Volume: 7.762M
BUY POINT: $39.31 Volume=10M Target=$45.45 Stop=$36.65
POSITION: GG DU - Apr. $37.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gg.html
Play Date: 01/30/2008
OTEX (Open Text--$30.25; +0.61; optionable): Enterprise content management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/otex.html
EARNINGS: 2/7/08
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. While most of the market sells, OTEX is already working on its base, thus far a 12 week jobber. It made a short double bottom this month, tapping at the 200 day SMA intraday last week and then bouncing back to the 50 day EMA (30.22). It has moved laterally at that level, resting for the next break higher. Money flow is running higher ahead of price. This is one of the stocks that is bucking the market trend and getting money. Want to see strong volume as it makes the break higher.
Volume: 446.421K Avg Volume: 645.049K
BUY POINT: $31.12 Volume=825K Target=$36.95 Stop=$28.94
POSITION: KQJ EH - May $30c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/otex.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/30/2008
CNH (CNH Global--$48.52; -1.34; optionable): Farm and construction machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnh.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1/23/08
STATUS: Head and shoulders. CHN crashed lower on earnings, breaking down from a 7 week head and shoulders top. It crashed through the 200 day SMA (54.16) last week and made a low volume bounce back, topping out at the November low Tuesday and Wednesday, rolling over on rising, above average volume Wednesday. Looks ready to follow tanking money flow again. Nice. A move to the target lands a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 1.096M Avg Volume: 670.775K
BUY POINT: $47.94 Volume=850K Target=$43.21 Stop=$50.50
POSITION: CNH OK - Mar. $50p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cnh.html
New buy points on current positions:
Play Date: 01/30/2008
QID (QQQ Proshares UltraShort ETF--$50.21; +0.12; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qid.html
STATUS: Test breakout. After surging two weeks back on the market selling QID has come back as the market rebounded, testing the move and filling the gap. It sold off Wednesday but then reversed as the market reversed. Strong volume. It is ready to continue the move as the NASDAQ sells off; AMZN's earnings will jumpstart the next move.
Volume: 42.383M Avg Volume: 32.833M
BUY POINT: $50.32 Volume=39M Target=$57.32 Stop=$48.48
POSITION: QID CY - Mar. $51c (56 delta, 52 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/qid.html
Play Date: 01/30/2008
SDS (UltraShort S&P500 ETF--$63.62; +1.42; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sds.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Very similar to QID, SDS has tested its breakout on the harsh market selling, tested as the market rebounded, and then sold off hard Wednesday just to reverse on strong volume. Ready to surge higher. Will gap higher and we will be inclined to chase a few positions early and then again on the first test of the break higher.
Volume: 35.525M Avg Volume: 21.43M
BUY POINT: $63.75 Volume=25M Target=$72.45 Stop=$62.94
POSITION: SDS CK - Mar. $63 delta (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sds.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/29/2008
CLHB (Clean Harbors--$54.01; -0.64; optionable): Environmental services in North America
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clhb.html
EARNINGS: 2-27-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice low volume test on Wednesday as the market sold back, holding the 10 day EMA on the close. Still in excellent shape to make the break higher. To recap: CLHB is working in a 3-month lateral trading range over the 50 day EMA (52.72) that is acting as the handle to a large 12 month double bottom with handle base. The handle is interesting as it has formed something of a reverse head and shoulders itself, setting up the break higher. Strong money flow is leading higher, and CLHB is showing solid price/volume action this month (up on up sessions, down volume on down sessions). That shows good accumulation and sets the foundation for the breakout. Very nice strength in a weak market. It did this in the 2001 recession as well.
Volume: 253.949K Avg Volume: 294.606K
BUY POINT: $55.75 Volume=400K Target=$63.95 Stop=$52.65
POSITION: QPB DK - Apr. $55c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/clhb.html
Play Date: 01/29/2008
HD (Home Depot--$29.38; -0.33; optionable): Home improvement stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hd.html
EARNINGS: Mid-February
STATUS: Trend reversal. HD still looks interesting as it moves laterally at the 90 day SMA, refusing to give up its gains from the trend breaking move. Just being patient to see if it can continue the move on strong volume and give us a buy point. To recap: HD surged higher last week on strong volume, surging through its down trendline running from July to January. After that initial surge it tested, coming back to the 50 day EMA (27.89), tapping that level Monday and bouncing. It continued higher Tuesday on rising, average volume; like to see the volume rebound as the stock does the same. Like to play these trend reversals after the first test holds as that shows the move has support. As HD continues and surpasses the high on the initial trend reversal (30.12) we will look to enter and ride it as a trade up to the 200 day SMA near 34.
Volume: 21.216M Avg Volume: 19.353M
BUY POINT: $30.21 Volume=22M Target=$34.00 Stop=$28.89
POSITION: HD EY - May $27.50c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hd.html
Play Date: 01/28/2008
PFCB (PF Changs--$27.24; -1.02; optionable): Restaurants (Pei Wei, PF Chang's)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfcb.html
EARNINGS: 2-13-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. As with HD, PFCB continues its intriguing pattern, moving laterally over the 90 day SMA as it tests that strong break higher last week that broke its near downtrend. Just being patient and waiting for this lateral move to show us the break higher on strong volume to show us it is a buy. To recap: After a 12 month downtrend, PFCB jumped higher last week on strong trade, clearing the 50 day EMA and the 90 day SMA (26.82) on the surge. After that strong move it has tested, the past three sessions, tapping at the 90 day on the Monday low and rebounding to close positive. No volume on the session; need to see that come in as it makes the bounce back up off of the test, showing us the buyers are back in. Nice strong trend reversal that we can at least make a trade up toward the 200 day SMA (32) on to the down trendline at 34.50.
Volume: 857.622K Avg Volume: 1.013M
BUY POINT: $28.48 Volume=1.5M Target=$32.75 Stop=$26.77
POSITION: HUO DE - Apr. $25c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pfcb.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/26/2008
CMI (Cummins--$48.52; +0.21; optionable): Large truck engines, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmi.html
EARNINGS: 2-1-08
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Big doji below the 18 day EMA (49.95). Looks as if the rebound is over similar to the indices. To recap: Rallied with the market last week, moving to the 18 day EMA on the Friday high but fading back off that level as the market sold back. CMI broke lower from its 6 month head and shoulders the first week of January, crashing through the 200 day SMA (55.33) and tumbling lower. The rebound has tested near resistance, and looking for CMI to make its own rollover here. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 3.185M Avg Volume: 3.258M
BUY POINT: $47.97 Volume=4.5M Target=$42.15 Stop=$48.45
POSITION: CDM OJ - Mar. $50p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cmi.html
Play Date: 01/28/2008
DXD (ProShares DJ30 UltraShort ETF--$56.99; +0.79; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dxd.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. And another very similar to QID, testing the sharp break higher, testing, and testing further Wednesday on the low and then rebounding on strong volume. Looking for it to move over the 10 day EMA (57.16) to give us the entry point.
Volume: 6.761M Avg Volume: 4.041M
BUY POINT: $57.55 Volume=5.9M Target=$65.00 Stop=$55.94
POSITION: DXD DC - Apr. $55c (62 delta, 141 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dxd.html
Play Date: 01/26/2008
MCRS (Micros System--$60.00; -0.63; optionable): Information systems for retail, hospitality industries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mcrs.html
EARNINGS: 1-31-08
STATUS: Put. Reached higher through the 200 day SMA (60.96) but then reversed sharply and closed lower. This is the kind of reversal that starts the next move lower. Plenty of room to the downside. Looks ready. To recap: Topped in November and December and dove lower through Tuesday, crashing the 200 day SMA (60.87) on the way down. The rebound last week took MCRS back up to the 200 day, but it reversed at that level Friday after showing a doji there on Thursday. Looking for another turn down after this initial bounce from the selling. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 300.402K Avg Volume: 356.987K
BUY POINT: $59.88 Volume=500K Target=$53.75 Stop=$61.38
POSITION: MFK OL - Mar. $60p (-41 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mcrs.html
Play Date: 01/28/2008
XLF (Financial Sector ETF--$28.00; -0.58; optionable): Financials
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xlf.html
STATUS: Put. Big reach up through the 50 day EMA (38.86) on the high and then fading for a loss on strong volume. The S&P review of mortgage-backed debt won't help the financials on Thursday and this is likely to gap lower. We can chase some positions early then look for an intraday bounce to stall and give us a chance to take some more. To recap: After moving higher 4 out of 5 sessions and tapping the 50 day EMA (28.91) on the Monday high before backing off, we are preparing to move into the downside if the XLF financial ETF peaks out and heads back down. Low volume as it testes the 50 day EMA as volume declined the past three sessions as it tested. It stalled at the 50 day on its last bounce in late November through early December, and we are looking for a stall out here to take it lower and give us a nice entry point. A move to the target lands a 60%ish gain.
Volume: 214.207M Avg Volume: 108.919M
BUY POINT: $27.47 Volume=110M Target=$25.00 Stop=$28.89
POSITION: XLF OC - Mar. $29p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/xlf.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
trend trading stock
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