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us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 2 of 3
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
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LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri =Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AGN 01/28 Rolling 67.08 +2.71 64.55 69.50 5.2M 2.5M 62.87
Buy Not Issued. Gapped lower Wednesday then gapped higher Thursday. All over the map and with these gaps we backed off. Dropping for now and watching to see if it sets up again.
CCC 01/26 Asc Bse 15.32 +0.42 16.21 19.75 422K 1.1M 15.17
Buy Not Hit. Bounced off a gap to the 90 day SMA. Low volume, but still setting up for the break higher.
CHT 01/22 Test BO 21.00 +0.35 21.89 25.95 2.3M 1.2M 20.88
Current. Holding at the 10 and 18 day EMA, still in solid position to continue the breakout move.
CHU 01/26 Asc Tri 23.67 +0.19 23.77 28.75 1.6M 2.5M 22.11
Buy Not Issued. Gapped lower to the 10 day EMA, held and rebounded for a modest upside session. Still a great pattern, just has to deliver a strong breakout move.
CLHB 01/29 DB hdl 55.48 +1.47 55.75 63.95 486K 400K 52.65
Buy Not Hit. Nice strong volume as the cleaner moves up for the breakout. Looking good to go; just needs to show us the break over resistance.
CPHD 01/07 Cup hdl 30.54 +0.23 28.64 34.35 925K 1M 30.32
Current. Very nice orderly test continues with a tap of the 18 day EMA on the low and a bounce to close higher. Excellent test and still ready to continue its run.
CSX 01/23 Cup 48.46 +0.61 46.31 51.95 8.8M 6.5M 46.96
Current. Strong volume on the upside again as CSX continues riding the rails higher. Just letting it make its run.
DXD 01/28 Test 18 54.90 -2.09 56.12 65.00 7.9M 5.9M 55.48
Buy Not Issued. Gapped higher on the early blood-letting, but then reversed to tap down at the November high as the market reversed. Will see how it holds this level, i.e. how the Dow handles resistance at 12,750.
FDP 01/16 Asc Bse 31.97 +0.72 35.45 42.65 475K 1.2M 33.11
Current. Still struggling below the 50 day EMA (32.22) as FDP works laterally on low volume. Not so fresh now, but hanging in there at the 90 day SMA.
FWLT 01/17 Test 20 68.47 +0.33 64.72 73.50 3.7M 2.2M 67.31
Current. Another stock that did not participate in the rally, stalling again at the 18 day EMA. Has to move higher here or we close it.
GG 01/30 Test BO 37.23 -1.51 39.31 45.45 11M 10M 36.65
Buy Not Hit. Faded back to the 10 day EMA on rising, strong volume, but still in a nice pattern and well positioned to make the break higher.
HD 01/29 Trnd Rv 30.64 +1.26 30.57 34.00 33M 22M 28.89
Entered today. Nice break higher on strong volume as HD resumes its trend reversal, starting the second leg higher.
HMSY 01/26 Test 50 31.60 +0.04 33.45 38.95 353K 456K 31.78
Buy Not Hit. Still at the 50 day EMA in the test. Volume jumped to the highest level in a week; may be ready to make the move given this revival in volume.
HUM 12/12 Cup hdl 79.52 -0.09 77.91 89.95 1.5M 2.4M 84.38
Current. Still at the 50 day (quite a few here), still making a higher low, still in position to move higher, but it needs to get it underway.
MA 01/22 Test 20 207.00 +18.00 190.31 210.95 11M 5M 189.97
Target Hit. Gapped higher on strong earnings, fell back, rallied sharply, then closed where it started. We banked some gain as it gapped.
MLNM 01/16 Asc Bse 15.17 +0.18 16.86 20.45 4M 7M 15.68
Current. Holding the 50 day EMA on the lows as MLNM has held the lows in its 2.5 month trading range, moving laterally the past 2 weeks. It is now in position to move higher.
MON 01/17 Trnd Rv 111.59 +0.03 103.57 114.95 8M 8.1M 107.48
Current. Managing to still hold the 50 day EMA, gapping lower then rebounding flat on stronger above average volume. Really struggling to move through 115; need to see something soon.
NUVA 01/15 Test 50 39.41 +0.36 41.12 49.32 421K 395K 39.65
Buy Not Hit. Faded back to the lower half of its 3 month range but it still looks in very good shape to make the break higher though it is taking the longer route as it continues to base.
OTEX 01/30 Test 50 30.88 +0.63 31.12 36.95 616K 825K 28.94
Buy Not Issued. Tripped the buy point very late in the session then immediately faded back to close just below the 50 day SMA (30.95). Excellent volume. Looks as if it will be ready to go tomorrow if the market maintains it bullish bias; maybe even if it does not.
PFCB 01/28 Trnd Rv 28.44 +1.20 28.77 32.75 1.2M 1.5M 26.76
Entered today. Good volume, nice break higher, so started some positions as PFCB resumed the move higher in its trend reversal move. Love the Thai salad, the Kung Pao is not bad if you cut the vegetables, and the lettuce wraps are nice as well. Oh, nice move.
PPDI 01/23 Test BO 43.36 -0.64 45.22 51.95 1.2M 1.4M 43.68
Buy Not Hit. Gapped lower but held the 50 day EMA with a doji, tapping at the base highs on the low. This should set it for the break higher. Will just wait and see if it shows it to us.
QID 01/30 Test 18 48.97 -1.24 50.96 57.32 42M 39M 48.48
Entered today. Gapped higher on the early blast lower, then sold off on the market recovery, but managed to hold the 18 day EMA and close at the 10 day EMA. GOOG was getting knocked around after hours and that may breath a little more life in these positions Friday as this ETF moves inversely to NASDAQ 100.
QID 01/26 Test 18 48.97 -1.24 51.57 57.32 42M 39M 48.48
Current.
SDS 01/30 Test 18 61.50 -2.12 63.75 72.45 35M 25M 62.94
Buy Not issued. Another short ETF that gapped higher for us then went splat on the market rebound. Held support at 60 however and bounced back to the 18 day EMA. Big point of inflection for the indices and thus SDS as SP500 tests next resistance.
SDS 01/24 Test BO 61.50 -2.12 63.18 72.45 35M 30M 62.94
Current.
TWM 01/24 Test 18 80.66 -4.40 85.77 97.95 11M 10M 82.05
Current. Knocked around hard as the small caps enjoyed the best day in awhile on the heels of the Fed rate cut. Managed to hold support but needs to see the small caps fail.
VIP 01/23 Test 20 34.39 +0.59 34.13 40.95 3.7M 5.5M 32.22
Current. Gapped lower but managed to recover to hold the 90 day SMA again. Struggling to hang on.
VIVO 01/16 Test BO 31.41 +0.22 34.68 40.95 359K 425K 32.66
Current. Gapped lower and recovered to hold the 90 day SMA on rising trade. It is under pressure, but this is where it needs to hold the line and provide a bounce.
VVUS 01/26 Test BO 6.06 +0.01 6.37 7.98 529K 750K 5.92
Current. Has pulled back after the strong break higher, but after gapping lower Thursday it recovered to flat and is in excellent position to continue the break higher.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AGU 01/24 HdShldr 64.42 +1.62 61.92 53.00 2.8M 4M 57.59
Buy Not Issued. Dropping for now though it could still fail at 65.
CMG 01/29 HdShldr 120.38 +5.31 118.94 107.15 1.1M 1M 117.22
Tapped at 110 where it tried to bottom in early January and bounced sharply. If you were in it, time to get on out.
CMI 01/26 HdShldr 48.35 -0.17 47.97 42.15 4.7M 4.5M 48.45
Buy Not Issued. Second doji at the 10 day EMA as CMI remains under pressure and did not participate in the rally, a telling point. Still watching to see a rollover.
CNH 01/30 HdShldr 49.30 +0.78 48.36 43.21 1.1M 850K 50.84
Buy Not Issued. Gapped lower and we watched for the rebound to test. It made the rebound and kept rising. We kept waiting, but it closed positive. Still negative, still looking for it to fail here at resistance at the November low.
DIA 01/30 Put 126.00 +2.22 124.12 113.55 22M 26M 125.32
Current. Gapped lower in the early bleeding but then reversed sharply. It moved past the Wednesday peak but then faded back at the close. We waited given the failure to take out the Wednesday peak, especially with the jobs report Friday. Still resistance at 127.50 & it is not that far from there.
DIA 01/24 Put 126.00 +2.22 122.65 113.55 22M 26M 123.98
Current.
EDU 01/29 Put 56.70 +4.45 54.77 47.75 1.9M 750K 54.31
Buy Not Issued. Gapped lower but then reversed on volume. May set up again but given this move for now we are dropping it.
FLR 01/26 Put 121.49 +1.58 120.77 110.25 2.9M 2.3M 122.69
Current. Tanked lower to 114.50 early but then reversed big and on volume. Black and blue butt here for kicking myself for not taking some gain off the table on that fast drop. Tapped at the 10 day EMA on the high and faded some. Needs to fade at that level (123.57)
IWM 01/24 Put 70.94 +1.72 69.57 65.85 116M 15M 70.88
Current. Surged through the 18 day EMA (70.35) on the close but could not hold a move over the Wednesday peak (71.40). Small caps perform better when there is wind of an economic expansion ahead. Has cleared near resistance and if there is some softness Friday we will consider taking it off the table unless the selling is hard and doesn't let up.
MCRS 01/26 Put 61.58 +1.58 59.88 53.75 521K 500K 61.38
Buy Not Issued. Volume jumped well above average as MCRS moved through the 200 day SMA on the close. It failed at the 18 day EMA as it did on Wednesday. We will see if that kills the rebound attempt, but with the strong volume we are inclined to drop it and look elsewhere for now.
NILE 01/24 Put 55.25 +4.46 53.22 45.45 659K 850K 53.22
Exited. Got out when NILE hit where we entered, and it continued higher up to the 18 day EMA on rising volume. Now we will watch and see if it sets up again for more downside or if this was a little double bottom for it, in which case we will look at an upside play.
XLF 01/28 Put 29.14 +1.14 28.54 25.00 178M 110M 29.57
Buy Not Hit. Financials continued their leadership and XLF closed above the 50 day EMA. Just by a hair, so it could still turn over; thus we are watching it to see how it responds to this modest break over resistance.
End part 2 of 3
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us stock market
trend trading stock
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