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us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS: Looking at some upside in very good position. As for the downside, we will be looking at the plays on the report if this bounce turns as fast as well.
Upside:
Play Date: 01/31/2008
BVN (Compania De Minas--$67.03; +1.64; optionable): Gold mining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bvn.html
EARNINGS: 2/28/08
STATUS: Test breakout. BVN broke out from a 7 week double bottom to start the year and rallied to 72. It sold hard in the last market down leg, but bottomed at the 50 day EMA (59.60) and bounced. It rallied up to this week and then moved laterally as the 10 day EMA (64.32) caught up to it. Tapped the 18 day EMA intraday and then reversed to close nicely higher on rising, above average volume after two sessions of below average trade. Looks ready to move and follow its surging money flow higher.
Volume: 867.17K Avg Volume: 711.079K
BUY POINT: $68.11 Volume=875K Target=$78.45 Stop=$64.21
POSITION: BVN FM - June $65c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bvn.html
Play Date: 01/31/2008
DRYS (Dryships--$74.43; +6.08; optionable): Bulk shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drys.html
EARNINGS: First week of February but unconfirmed
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Strong volume Thursday as DRYS moved off the 200 day SMA (67), making a break higher out of a short reverse head and shoulders base that formed after the early January selloff. This pattern often forms at the bottom of a base, and DRYS has tried to set up a double bottom after a strong surge through October and then a pretty nasty selloff. It is picking up some strong buyers as it comes off of that low, and while it likely still has more basing to do, it can give us a nice run up toward the 90 day SMA at 90, making us some great money.
Volume: 6.684M Avg Volume: 4.646M
BUY POINT: $75.11 Volume=4.8M Target=$89.95 Stop=$72.15
POSITION: DQR FO - June $75c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/drys.html
Play Date: 01/31/2008
ECLP (Eclipsys--$25.74; +0.09; optionable): Healthcare software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eclp.html
Earnings: 2/14/2008
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. After a 4 month trading range ECLOP broke higher in late December, clearing the peaks at 25. It didn't get very far, however, before the market selling caught it and pushed it lower this month. It bounded, faded, then bounced again two weeks back, forming, you got it, a double bottom base. It surged higher early this week and then faded Wednesday and Thursday, starting the handle to the pattern, the point where there is a short shakeout ahead of a new breakout. Looking to move in as ECLP resumes the move higher.
Volume: 460.167K Avg Volume: 433.916K
BUY POINT: $26.39 Volume=600K Target=$30.45 Stop=$24.88
POSITION: IQV FE - June $25c (62 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/eclp.html
Play Date: 01/31/2008
JPM (JP Morgan--$47.40; +0.05; optionable): Big bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jpm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1/16/08
STATUS: Trend reversal. JPM peaked in May then started its downtrend through mid-January, making lower highs and lower lows down the 50 day EMA. It reversed, moved through that level, tested, and then surged again this week. It moved through the 200 day SMA (46.67) and then moved laterally Wednesday and Thursday, taking a short breather right at the September and December peaks. Might take another session or two of lateral movement, but when it breaks above 48 on more volume we are looking to move in.
Volume: 55.505M Avg Volume: 31.964M
BUY POINT: $48.28 Volume=45M Target=$55.55 Stop=$45.91
POSITION: JPM FW - June $47.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jpm.html
Play Date: 01/31/2008
TJX (TJ Max--$31.61; +0.37; optionable): Department stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tjx.html
EARNINGS: 2/20/08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. TJX is working laterally the past week following that powerful surge off the market reversal. TJX never suffered the dismantling of its technical position, using the last market selloff to form the second leg of its 18 week double bottom. After that surge higher following its strong money flow, TJX is taking a breather. At least it was until Thursday when it gapped lower to the 10 day EMA and then reversed on strong, strong volume. Looking for it to clear resistance at 23 to give us the buy.
Volume: 11.966M Avg Volume: 5.674M
BUY POINT: $32.11 Volume=6.5M Target=$36.95 Stop=$30.31
POSITION: TJX DF - Apr. $30c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tjx.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
trend trading stock
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