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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS: Some nice upside along with some primed and ready downside.
Upside:
Play Date: 02/04/2008
CHNR (China Natural Resources--$22.95; +4.15; no options): Chinese industrial metals, minerals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chnr.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Strong, above average volume, the first in over a month, as CHNR surges off the 200 day SMA (15.88). This base has formed the past 16 weeks, setting up a great foundation for a new breakout and run higher. Strong money flow is strong and sharply ahead of price. CHNR is starting to follow the money higher.
Volume: 1.029M Avg Volume: 542.168K
BUY POINT: $23.32 Volume=550K Target=$29.97 Stop=$21.69
POSITION: - Stock (no opition chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/chnr.html
Play Date: 02/04/2008
CMED (China Medical Technologies--$49.69; +0.69; optionable): Chinese medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmed.html
EARNINGS: 2-28-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Strong breakout in early 2008 as CMED broke out of a 9 week base and made us some nice money. It dove back mid-month with the selling, but held the 90 day SMA. It bounced and we were looking to play that move, but with the gaps and low volume it was hard to get a good entry. After that move it came back to test near support at the 18 day EMA (48.29). Nice test, then a gap higher on strong, above average volume Monday when most of the market was lower. Excellent strength and ready to move in as CMED continues this move higher.
Volume: 738.233K Avg Volume: 623.381K
BUY POINT: $50.55 Volume=935K Target=$58.45 Stop=$48.15
POSITION: QCY FJ - June $50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cmed.html
Play Date: 02/04/2008
COIN (Converted Organics--$9.70; +0.51; no options): Organic agricultural chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coin.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. A new issue in March 2007, COIN toiled in relative anonymity. Then in late December it blasted higher and surged in a massive run to 14. It then came back to test in the market selling. It held, bounced, and has moved laterally the past three weeks. Monday COIN bounced off the 18 day on strong volume in a weak market. Looks solid and ready to continue the move higher. Lots of momentum.
Volume: 1.356M Avg Volume: 652.286K
BUY POINT: $10.22 Volume=978K Target=$12.95 Stop=$9.50
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/coin.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/04/2008
AAPL (Apple Computer--$131.65; -2.10; optionable): iPods, iMacs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aapl.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-22-08
STATUS: Put. AAPL formed a head and shoulders in December and January, the collapsed in the mid-January market selling, gapping below its 200 day SMA (now at 148). It did not even attempt a recovery, instead moving laterally the past two weeks. The 10 day EMA (138.67) is coming down hard on it, and AAPL has started to sell down ahead of that. Looks ripe to break lower from this rather pathetic attempt to recover and follow its money flow down, down, down. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 32.115M Avg Volume: 45.343M
BUY POINT: $131.12 Volume=46M Target=$124.00 Stop=$134.22
POSITION: APV OF - Mar. $130p (-42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aapl.html
Play Date: 02/04/2008
ESRX (Express Scripts--$64.11; -2.19; optionable): Mail order prescriptions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
EARNINGS: Announced in January
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Gapped sharply lower in mid-January on disappointing earnings and after a long, strong rally. It has more than doubled since the start of 2007, and it is in need of a basing episode to build another foundation it can rally from. During that it looks ripe to make us some downside money. It gapped lower, then rebounded through the end of January to fill that gap. Tried to push through the 50 day EMA (67.90) but rolled over Monday, sharply too. Looking to follow its flagging money flow lower. A move to the target lands a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 3.064M Avg Volume: 3.027M
BUY POINT: $63.97 Volume=3.5M Target=$60.00 Stop=$65.65
POSITION: XTQ OM - Mar. $65p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/esrx.html
Play Date: 02/04/2008
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$69.66; -0.44; optionable): GPS devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
EARNINGS: 2-20-08
STATUS: Put. GRMN is in a continuing downtrend after double topping in late 2007. It collapsed in January, then rebounded the last two weeks of the month, making it back to the 18 day EMA (71.95) last week. It is starting to turn back over, managing to hold the 10 day EMA (69.47) on the close. Looking for break lower from here on rising trade to give us the entry point. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 2.71M Avg Volume: 5.552M
BUY POINT: $68.91 Volume=6M Target=$62.21 Stop=$70.24
POSITION: GQR ON - Mar. $70p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/grmn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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