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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/05/2008
KWK (Quicksilver Resources--$29.20; -1.73; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kwk.html
EARNINGS: 2-26-08
STATUS: After exploding higher Monday on strong volume, KWK could not escape the selling Tuesday as the market rolled over. KWK, however, did not implode. It sold back on lower volume but is holding nicely in its 12 week ascending base. Looking for it to hold above the 10 day EMA (28.53) and resume the break higher. Then we can move in if it shows enough volume along the way.
Volume: 3.159M Avg Volume: 2.259M
BUY POINT: $30.11 Volume=3.4M Target=$34.95 Stop=$28.22
POSITION: KWK FF - June $30c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/kwk.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/05/2008
IBM (International Business Machines--$105.02; -2.91; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ibm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-17-08
STATUS: Put. IBM is stalling out at the 200 day SMA (109) after a low volume climb to that level last week as the market rallied. That capped a three week run up to that level after crashing it to start January. Great earnings no doubt, but that does not change the pattern that shows IBM moving up to key resistance at the 200 day and at the October/December down trendline and falling back on rising volume. A run lower to 100 can make us a solid 45% gain and IBM does not have to plow any new ground to the downside to do it.
Volume: 9.049M Avg Volume: 9.396M
BUY POINT: $104.56 Volume=9.5M Target=$99.55 Stop=$107.21
POSITION: ibm oa - Mar. $105p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ibm.html
Play Date: 02/05/2008
PCLN (Priceline.com--$98.27; -7.40; optionable): Online travel, hotel, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcln.html
EARNINGS: 2-14-08
STATUS: Put. Made us some great money on that early January run lower, and after this rebound to test that move it looks ready again. PCLN stalled out at the mid-November peak and is heading lower on strong volume, diving down on Tuesday. It filled the November gap on the last run we played (making us a 56% gain), but there is a gap higher way down in August near 63. That is quite a drop and we are not even trying to play that on this move, but it does show that after this double top and lower high PCLN is ready to give back a big chunk of its long, strong run that saw the stock quadruple in price. Plenty of room to give. A move to the target lands us a 35%ish gain, but it can go a lot lower than that.
Volume: 1.892M Avg Volume: 1.621M
BUY POINT: $97.84 Volume=1.8M Target=$88.77 Stop=$100.77
POSITION: PUZ OT - Mar. $100p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pcln.html
Play Date: 02/05/2008
PG (Procter & Gamble--$65.04; -1.11; optionable): Personal products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pg.html
EARNINGS: 4-30-08
STATUS: Put. PG has put in a double top just below the 200 day SMA (67) and is rolling over on strong volume, very ready to sell some more. A broad top in November and December, and a nasty plunge in January took PG below the 200 day. It looks to have failed a test of that level and we are ready to move in as it heads lower because selling below the 200 day tells you that the big money is unloading it. A move to the target lands a 51% gain.
Volume: 14.271M Avg Volume: 11.996M
BUY POINT: $64.88 Volume=12M Target=$61.85 Stop=$66.21
POSITION: PG PM - Apr. $65p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pg.html
Play Date: 02/05/2008
VLO (Valero Energy--$57.22; -2.86; optionable): Oil and gas refineries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vlo.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-29-08
STATUS: Put. Made a lower high below the 50 day EMA (62.11) and the August and November lows and is turning back down, ready to fill the late January gap and run down again to test the 50ish level. A move to the target lands a 55%ish gain. If it is still selling at that point, by all means we will let it continue on down.
Volume: 7.204M Avg Volume: 8.642M
BUY POINT: $56.97 Volume=9M Target=$52.00 Stop=$58.71
POSITION: VLO OL - Mar. $60p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vlo.html
Play Date: 02/05/2008
XLF (Financial Sector ETF--$27.65; -1.17; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xlf.html
STATUS: Put. Gapped lower on rising, above average volume as XLF gave up its short-lived break above the 50 day EMA (28.85). This puts it back in its downtrend below that key level, and after that relief bounce they led on the rebound, it is primed to head back down and make us some money. A move to the target lands a 48%ish gain.
Volume: 125.473M Avg Volume: 111.32M
BUY POINT: $27.52 Volume=115M Target=$25.50 Stop=$28.31
POSITION: XLF OB - Mar. $28p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xlf.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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