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world stock market, us stock market
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS: Some leaders in the last move have set up again.
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 02/09/2008
RIMM (Research in Motion--$89.71; +4.76; optionable): Blackberries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
EARNINGS: Third week March
STATUS: Double bottom. RIMM has made a couple of lows on the 200 day SMA (85.73) spanning the past three weeks after peaking in November at 130 and then selling back. Nice solid set up for a bounce higher. May not give us a run to a new high, but it can give us a nice profit as it makes this break higher from the key 200 day SMA and moves with several of the large cap techs that were roughed up in the January selling.
Volume: 22.997M Avg Volume: 30.308M
BUY POINT: $90.31 Volume=32M Target=$103.95 Stop=$85.45
POSITION: RFY FR - June $90c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/rimm.html
New Leader Play:
Play Date: 02/09/2008
WFR (Memc Electronic--$75.68; +1.46; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-24-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Taking another look at WFR as it rebounded right back up after the Tuesday dump to some support at 70. Broke above its recent range Friday, but no volume. This is a short 5 week pattern that is part of a larger topping pattern, but WFR has set up to make the break higher, and if there is some volume as it makes the move it can break up that pattern and give us a very nice run higher.
Volume: 4.094M Avg Volume: 5.744M
BUY POINT: $77.94 Volume=7M Target=$93.50 Stop=$74.18
POSITION: WFR DO - Apr. $75c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wfr.html
New Downside Play:
Play Date: 02/09/2008
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$66.81; +0.66; optionable): GPS
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
EARNINGS: 2-20-08
STATUS: Put. After gapping lower on Tuesday and not really giving us the opportunity to play that downside move, GRMN has rebounded to just about fill the gap, moving through the 10 day EMA (67.19) on the Thursday and Friday highs but then unable to close the deal. Looking for a rollover to give us a downside play. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 3.649M Avg Volume: 5.451M
BUY POINT: $66.11 Volume=5.5M Target=$60.05 Stop=$67.82
POSITION: GQR OM - Mar. $65p (-39 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/grmn.html
Play Date: 02/09/2008
IWM (Ishares Russell 2000--$69.67; -0.44; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iwm.html
STATUS: Put. Looking to get right back in after getting shaken out on Friday as it moved higher, looking as if the small caps were going to break upside again as on Thursday. IWM closed below the 10 day EMA (70.07), however, showing its weakness at near resistance. If it moves down from here again we will be ready to move back in.
Volume: 86.493M Avg Volume: 99.325M
BUY POINT: $69.46 Volume=15M Target=$66.25 Stop=$70.72
POSITION: IQQ OR - Mar. $70p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/iwm.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
APOL: Researching date.
ATW: Forecast late February or first week of March.
BUCY: Broke higher off the 50 day EMA on rising volume and testing it Friday.
BVN: Forecast 2-28-08
CEDC: Researching date
CPRT: Forecast first week of March
EOG: Forecast the first week of February. Excellent breakout on volume.
GG: Forecast 2-21-08
MM: Researching date.
OTEX: No announcement 2-7-08. Set up well to break higher.
SID: Good test of the late January break higher.
UPL: Forecast second week of February. Surging higher on solid volume Friday.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/09/2008
CLF (Cleveland-Cliffs--$108.06; +6.77; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clf.html
EARNINGS: 2-21-08 after the close
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Strong volume Friday accompanying the breakout move from a nicely formed 16 week base formed using the 200 day SMA as support on the lows. Strong taking CLF to a new all-time high. Ready to move in with some positions as it continues the move and then adding to the position when it tests the move and then starts to rebound once more.
Volume: 2.597M Avg Volume: 1.511M
BUY POINT: $108.55 Volume=1.6M Target=$124.95 Stop=$104.57
POSITION: CLF DA - Apr. $105c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/clf.html
Play Date: 02/09/2008
ISRG (Intuitive Surgical--$300.68; +2.03; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/isrg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-31-08
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. ISRG gapped higher to start the month, jumping higher on a strong earnings report. After that gap it has come back to test, tapping the 50 day EMA (288) on the Thursday low and then rebounding. Nice orderly test of the breakout. It is also an island reversal, i.e. a gap lower to start January and then a gap higher to start February. That is a bullish indication. After this test ISRG is ready to go again, another leader in the last rally that has set back up.
Volume: 659.122K Avg Volume: 1.275M
BUY POINT: $305.22 Volume=1.9M Target=$349.00 Stop=$297.55
POSITION: AXV DA - Apr. $310c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/isrg.html
Play Date: 02/09/2008
JOYG (Joy Global--$64.06; -0.52; optionable): Farm and construction machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/joyg.html
EARNINGS: 3-6-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. JOYG has set up again, forming a short 6 week pattern after the December breakout from its 6 month base failed in the January selling. It sold hard along with most of the market, but it recovered just as fast. It tested near support at the 10 day EMA (62.29) last week and then started to bounce. After this short breather we are looking for a strong volume break higher to give us a new entry point as it clears the old highs.
Volume: 2.231M Avg Volume: 1.998M
BUY POINT: $65.34 Volume=3M Target=$75.42 Stop=$62.11
POSITION: JQY DM - Apr. $65c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/joyg.html
Play Date: 02/09/2008
MA (MasterCard--$205.61; +4.73; optionable): Financial services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ma.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-31-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Made us some great money on its last move when it gapped higher on earnings. It has come back to test that move this month, holding the 50 day EMA (195) on the Thursday low and rebounding. Nicely formed 8 week base is setting up MA's next breakout move. Another leader in the last rally that has formed a base and is in position to break higher once more.
Volume: 2.921M Avg Volume: 3.827M
BUY POINT: $206.67 Volume=5M Target=$239.00 Stop=$199.45
POSITION: MAL DT - Apr. $200c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ma.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/07/2008
MM (Metal Management--$52.26; -0.44; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-6-08
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. Rallied again Friday but faded on the close. Still in excellent position to make a continued run higher. To recap: Riding its strong earnings higher reported Wednesday, MM is making the breakout from its 17 week base. The base formed after gapping higher in late September to a new high; it could not hold and it fell into this base. Very nice base at that, with great accumulation the past month, and money flow surging higher. This stock certainly looks ready to surge to a new high, a signal not all is wrong in the world economies.
Volume: 531.239K Avg Volume: 380.357K
BUY POINT: $53.21 Volume=450K Target=$61.31 Stop=$49.97
POSITION: MM DJ - Apr. $50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mm.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/07/2008
DKS (Dicks Sporting Goods--$32.63; +0.13; optionable): Sporting goods stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dks.html
EARNINGS: Third week of February
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Trying to run higher the past two sessions, fading back on the close. Still in great position to make the break higher as retail continues to show leadership after the Fed cuts. To recap: Strong volume Wednesday and Thursday as DKS put in a couple of upside sessions, moving off support at the 18 day EMA and heading toward the breakout from its 19 week base. It surged to a new high on its August to September run, then needed a rest. This base has formed as a result, a sharp double bottom, the old 'scare them out' method of basing. Tried the breakout waters on Thursday but backed off. Money flow is surging ahead of price, and it looks as if DKS won't have any trouble following it higher.
Volume: 1.18M Avg Volume: 2.444M
BUY POINT: $33.21 Volume=3.2M Target=$38.32 Stop=$31.28
POSITION: DKS FZ - June $32.50c (60 delta, 191 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dks.html
Play Date: 02/07/2008
FLO (Flowers Foods--$24.37; +0.26; optionable): Processed and packaged food
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flo.html
EARNINGS: Third week of February (not confirmed by company)
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Bounced on rising volume Friday, moving off the 10 day EMA (23.82). It is a buy on a continued move higher. To recap: Food. Have to have it, recession or not. Thus FLO broke higher in early December, moving to a new high out of a 6 month base. It rallied to 25 and then the January selling hit, pushing FLO into the current 7 week base. It surged wildly to end January and start February, moving on massive volume. Then it came back this week on lower and lower volume to test that move and form the handle to its base. Nice tap at the 10 day EMA on the Thursday low and then a bounce higher. Very solid and just looking for a new break higher on strong volume to give us the entry point.
Volume: 709.648K Avg Volume: 574.898K
BUY POINT: New: On a continued move higher (orig. $24.34) Volume=750K Target=$27.95 Stop=$23.55
POSITION: FLO GX - July $22.50c (61 delta, 54 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/flo.html
Play Date: 02/02/2008
FLIR (Flir Systems--$32.67; +0.74; optionable): Thermal imaging and infrared camera systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
EARNINGS: 2-7-08
STATUS: Cup. Bouncing off the 90 and 50 day EMA and looking ready to make the move. Very solid. To recap: FLIR is trying to make the bounce off the lows in its 14 week pattern, coming off the 50 day EMA, showing a good finish to the week. Surged to a new all-time high in October and early November, but after a long run it needed a breather. Another stock that has formed a nice base when much of the market was ripped up. Solid price jump Friday after a good Thursday volume session. Want to see more trade as it continues higher to show that was not a fluke day for the volume.
Volume: 1.058M Avg Volume: 1.327M
BUY POINT: $33.21 Volume=1.6M Target=$39.85 Stop=$30.89
POSITION: FFQ DZ - Apr. $32.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/flir.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/04/2008
CHNR (China Natural Resources--$22.25; +0.84; no options): Chinese industrial metals, minerals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chnr.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Finished the week walking laterally along the 50 day EMA on low volume. Excellent set up and ready to make the move, just has to show us. To recap: Strong, above average volume, the first in over a month, as CHNR surges off the 200 day SMA (15.88). This base has formed the past 16 weeks, setting up a great foundation for a new breakout and run higher. Strong money flow is strong and sharply ahead of price. CHNR is starting to follow the money higher.
Volume: 302.803K Avg Volume: 548.783K
BUY POINT: $23.32 Volume=550K Target=$29.97 Stop=$21.69
POSITION: - Stock (no opition chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chnr.html
Play Date: 02/07/2008
RTN (Raytheon Co.--$65.55; -0.45; optionable): Aerospace/defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rtn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-31-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Paused Friday on lower trade but still ready to make the break higher after this nice test of the breakout. To recap: RTN broke higher on its earnings, moving out of a 16 week double bottom base to a new 8 year high. Got a bit dicey in the January selling, but it recovered very quickly (one day) and made the breakout. It came back to test early this week, tapping down at the 18 day EMA and then vaulting higher Thursday on a strong volume surge. Ready to move in as it continues the breakout move.
Volume: 2.853M Avg Volume: 3.042M
BUY POINT: $66.48 Volume=3M Target=$76.45 Stop=$64.34
POSITION: RTN EM - May $65c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rtn.html
Play Date: 02/06/2008
SVNT (Savient Pharma--$20.57; -0.13; optionable): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/svnt.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Ended the week with a nice Thursday and Friday pullback to the 10 day EMA on low, below average volume. After the surge off the 50 day EMA, this test is setting it up for the next run higher. To recap: Massive breakout from an 11 month flat base in mid-December, as SVTN surged to 24 on the move. It has come back to test the past 4 weeks, holding the 50 day EMA (19.35) late in the month, making a short double bottom at that level. Volume started to push higher Tuesday and Wednesday as SVNT broke higher. Very nice action in a weak market. That tells us SVNT is worthy of our money. On a continued move showing solid trade we will be ready to move in.
Volume: 892.047K Avg Volume: 1.577M
BUY POINT: $21.33 Volume=2M Target=$25.95 Stop=$20.22
POSITION: UVP FD - June $20c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/svnt.html
CONTINUING DOWNSIDE PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/05/2008
PG (Procter & Gamble--$65.02; -0.75; optionable): Personal products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pg.html
EARNINGS: 4-30-08
STATUS: Put. Sold back Friday after a higher volume jump Thursday. No volume Friday, but PG remains below the 10 day EMA, unable to make the break over it. Ready to step in as PG turns lower again. To recap: PG has put in a double top just below the 200 day SMA (67) and is rolling over on strong volume, very ready to sell some more. A broad top in November and December, and a nasty plunge in January took PG below the 200 day. It looks to have failed a test of that level and we are ready to move in as it heads lower because selling below the 200 day tells you that the big money is unloading it. A move to the target lands a 51% gain.
Volume: 9.271M Avg Volume: 12.132M
BUY POINT: $64.88 Volume=12M Target=$61.85 Stop=$66.21
POSITION: PG PM - Apr. $65p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pg.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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