yahoo stock, top stock pick

Begin Part 2 of 2

THE PLAYS:

Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information. A "prior high" refers to the high at the start of a base.
For conserving space on listings of stop losses, the symbol (7%) indicates that the stop is 7% below the buy point.

Good movers: TIER started selling off in earnest today, and looks ready to hit our target at 16, if not lower on this strong move. RPM, the 18 day MVA bounce play, kicked off today with a solid move off that support.

Targets hit Wednesday: OEX (570, upside bounce play)
Stop Advisory: EMLX (33.53)

Stocks/Indexes from the Tuesday report:
MVL: Still testing the breakout, showing another doji on lower volume.
ODP: Holding up well in the flying plateau. Volume rising with the stock showing a star doji.
CVH: Broke the 18 day MVA, falling out of the ascending wedge. Volume wasn't much higher or very strong (still below average), but strong or not, the pattern is gone.
PFGC: After Tuesday's lower volume doji, the stock sold down to the 18 day MVA. It bounced back up but the higher volume (still just under average) is of some concern.
GYMB: Pulled back after a promising breakout move. Not a great development but volume was lighter.

Continued plays:
Covered call:
BLL: Starting to sell back. BLL closed right at the upper channel line after dropping below it Wednesday for a test of the 18 day MVA. Still looking for the move down, and due to that move above the upper channel, are looking for a possible fall to 40 to 38. Higher volume on the move is promising.

Other continued plays:
BBX: Hit the buy point in the ascending wedge Tuesday but pulled back into a doji; today the stock was up again but volume was low and well below average. Want to see it increase to support the breakout!
CSTR: Has formed an ascending wedge after testing back to the 50 day MVA subsequent to an earlier ascending wedge breakout from January. New buy point is over 31 on strong volume.
FMX: This was a cup with handle that fell out of the handle. However, today the stock bounced off the 50 day MVA on decent volume. Still not over the previous (February) handle high at 41.
QSFT: Close to the buy point of 18.50 for the put play; started selling on higher volume.

Best Plays:
1) RKY: Breaking out and still a buy.
2) QQQ: Looking for more downside.
3) QLGC: Broke support on strong volume (put).

New:

RKY (Adolph Coors--$60.24; +2.08; optionable): Beverage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rky.html
STATUS: Breaking out of a 9-week cup with handle base. The buy point of 59.60 was just over the previous February high, and since the stock is within the 5% limit for buying on breakouts, has some buying room left on this move. Volume was strong at 632,500 (avg. 302,000); the stock flew up right before the closing bell. After hours news was that a recent acquisition is expected to increase earnings beyond original estimates (it is not clear if this is the news that ran the stock up). Whatever the catalyst, the move was solid and we look for a continued breakout. Strong money flow and relative strength is breaking out. Target: 73
BUY POINT: 60.50 on continued strong volume (min. breakout volume met at 453,000). Stop advisory (7%): 56.27. A buy on the breakout up to 62.59.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $55 calls to buy (RKY GK).

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/rky.html

JH (John. H. Harland--$27.55; -0.35; no options): Office Supplies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jh.html
STATUS: Testing the strong recent breakout from a 6-month cup with handle base when JH ran to a high at 29.60. The stock has been pulling back since then (for 2 weeks) on overall steadily decreasing volume, which was down Wednesday to a very low 52,000 (avg. 103,000). It can continue the current pullback for another day or two until it firms up the test of the 18 day MVA (27.07, which it tapped on Monday's low), but we look for a bounce back up after that. Huge money flow. Target: 34
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 28.10 on volume of 139,000 or higher. Stop advisory (7%): 26.13
POSITION: Stock.

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/jh.html

Put:

QQQ (Nasdaq 100--$34.40; -0.48; optionable): Financial Services
STATUS: The index tapped the 18 day MVA at the 36 range (intraday high was 36.08), our target for the recent upside bounce play. It headed back down from there, holding support on the low at the 34 (a price that has now been hit 4 of the last 7 days, so, the likely the sturdiest support here). However, volume moved slightly higher to 95 million (avg. 72 million) as the Nasdaq distributed. We are looking for the Nasdaq to head lower, so will eye a new downside target at 32, initially. If the index gets below that, 30.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 33.90 on rising volume.
POSITION: May $43 or $42 puts to buy (QQQ QQ or QP)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/$ndx.html

OEX (Standard & Poors--$563.09; +0.42; optionable):
STATUS: Hit upper resistance at the 50 day MVA, which the index has failed to break the last few times it has tried since mid-January. Volume was higher Wednesday at 1.37 million (avg. 1.3 million) on an attempt to hold a move above the resistance (which is at 568.68) but the index churned on the move, closing with a doji above the 18 day MVA (561.26). We will look for a break of that support for taking more aggressive positions in addition to those taken today; breakdown in the pattern is below lower support at the 549 range, but for now that is our initial target. We sent out a mid-day alert out on the index, taking profits on the upside play and to an aggressive put.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 560.50 on continued rising volume.
POSITION: April $570 puts to buy (OEB PN).

QLGC (Qlogic--$39.10; -3.69; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qlgc.html
STATUS: Tried to move back over the 200 day MVA (30.42), support it broke 7 days ago but over the last few days approached once again but on decreasing volume. That indicates a possible fall, and that move today was on strong volume (1.4 million; avg. 3.2 million). The stock broke the previous February closing low (39.44) on the move, and we look for it to head lower, target at 35, initially (below that, 30).
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 39 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: July $45 puts to buy (QLC SI). Check for deltas.

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/qlgc.html

PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.

THE LEADERS: DGX, FRX, LLL, MIK, BMET, APPB, IGT.

MIK ($29.99; -1.71): Broke the 50 day MVA on strong volume, breaking down in a head and shoulders pattern. Can fall to 25-26 if the selling continues. On a continued move down from here, time to sell.
BMET ($31.02; -0.13): Holding at the 50 day MVA as volume falls lower and lower below average, a good sign for continued support here.
LLL ($112.12; +2.48): After the 18 day MVA tap on Tuesday, LLL, on lower volume actually bounced from the 10 day MVA. That lower volume was still strong at average levels, but if it continues to fall that would suggest that the stock cannot continue to rise. We can wait and see if we get another pullback to the 18 day MVA for exit points for existing positions (if LLL makes it back down to the support soon it may correct back below the 18 day MVA, perhaps to 105).
APPB ($35.67; +1.24): Strong move by APPB today, breaking back over the 50 day MVA on strong volume. It tapped resistance at the 36 range then dropped back a little for the close.

UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: BBBY, SRCL

SRCL ($64.90; +0.70): Still hovering above support at 62, showing its second consecutive doji at the top of its breakout run. Volume keeps falling, and if the stock holds here for its test, new buy point is over 65.68 on strong and rising volume.

MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CSCO, SEBL, EMLX, BRCM, HDI, BRCD, BUD, AMGN, WMT, ORCL, HB, NOC

BRCD ($24.18; -2.84): Broke below the previous February low (24.59) on strong volume. Can fall to 20 (late October low) on continued selling in the Nasdaq. We can look at buying puts on that move, July $35 puts (UBF SG), buy point 24 on continued strong volume.
CSCO ($14.24; -1.26): CSCO continues the downtrend, falling heavily on negative comments by Wachovia. There will be better places to get back into this stock.
BRCM ($32.79; -1.86): Also posted a loss today. On a move below the February low of 31.91, can fall to 27, May $40 puts to buy.
EMLX ($33.52; -3.48): Hit a stop alert today for the bounce play, but will be a sell if it breaks the 200 day MVA (30.70). We were looking at EMLX for the bounce, which it gave though not as strong as we wanted then really tanked today. If it bounces, can give a better exit point.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

yahoo stock
top stock pick