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trade stock, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS: Some telecom, commodities, and medical have set up
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 02/12/2008
ABMD (Abiomed--$15.13; +0.03; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abmd.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-7-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Gapped higher on its earnings, but not enough to push it out of its 7 week base that formed with a fast, hard drop to the 200 day SMA in that mid-January selling. Nice recovery, nice easy pullback this month has set up the break higher. Just looking for that strong break higher.
Volume: 192.737K Avg Volume: 238.335K
BUY POINT: $15.81 Volume=358K Target=$18.95 Stop=$14.85
POSITION: IBU FC - June $15c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/abmd.html
Play Date: 02/12/2008
VIP (Vimple Communication--$36.67; +1.89; optionable): Russian wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vip.html
EARNINGS: Late February
STATUS: Double bottom. Strong volume Tuesday as VIP gapped higher, clearing the 50 day EMA (35.67) on the move but stalling after tapping the 50 day SMA on the high (37.50). After a strong run from August it has fallen into the current 7 week base, setting up for the next run higher. Tuesday it just cleared the 'hump' in the pattern. Looking to move in as it continues the move higher.
Volume: 4.429M Avg Volume: 4.004M
BUY POINT: $37.68 Volume=6M Target=$44.95 Stop=$35.45
POSITION: VIQ GG - July $35c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vip.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 02/12/2008
DBC (DB Commodity Index ETF--$32.95; -0.68; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dbc.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Commodities are enjoying a resurgence, and DBC broke higher last Friday from a 3 month base formed using the 50 day EMA to make higher lows. This base followed a strong run from August to early November; it took the rest and is breaking higher. Now we look for a break higher after this Tuesday test of the 10 day EMA on lower trade. Like the first tests; when they start back up that shows the buyers are moving back in.
Volume: 760K Avg Volume: 603.49K
BUY POINT: $33.38 Volume=900K Target=$37.75 Stop=$32.38
POSITION: DBC GF - July $32c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dbc.html
Play Date: 02/12/2008
NOK (Nokia--$36.84; +0.71; optionable): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nok.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-24-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Strong rally from early January 2007 through early November. It has sold back into a base, holding at the 200 day SMA on the lows and fully testing the break higher from August that marked the last run higher in the rally. It has formed up the current 6 week base at the bottom of its larger base, breaking higher Tuesday with a gap on higher volume. Stalled at the 90 day SMA (37.31) but looking for a break over that to give us the buy as it clears that resistance.
Volume: 16.744M Avg Volume: 15.537M
BUY POINT: $37.88 Volume=23M Target=$43.65 Stop=$35.98
POSITION: NAY GG - July $35c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nok.html
New Downside Plays:
Play Date: 02/12/2008
CAM (Cooper Cameron--$40.28; -0.41; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cam.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-31-08
STATUS: Put. Gapped lower on earnings in late January then rebounded to test the 10 day EMA (40.78). It dumped back down last week, and then fought back up to the 10 day EMA on Monday and Tuesday, showing a doji Tuesday as it tried to move through that level but then reversed to close lower. Looking for a turn down from here to move in on another run in the downtrend below the 10 day EMA. A move to the target lands a 48%ish gain.
Volume: 3.522M Avg Volume: 4.72M
BUY POINT: $39.84 Volume=4.8M Target=$37.32 Stop=$40.91
POSITION: CAM OH - Mar. $40p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cam.html
Play Date: 02/12/2008
NOV (National Oilwell--$60.82; +0.72; optionable): Oil and gas service
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nov.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-6-08
STATUS: Put. Will it be CAM or NOV that stalls first? NOV crashed the 200 day SMA (62.26) in mid-January, reclaimed it to end the month, but then crashed it again last week. Another rebound to test this week, tapping right at the 200 day on the Tuesday high before reversing to give up almost all of the move as it sits at the 10 day EMA. Looking for it to turn down from this intraday reversal and give us another downside move. Doesn't have to break any new ground to give us a nice 44% gain to the target.
Volume: 7.187M Avg Volume: 6.068M
BUY POINT: $59.88 Volume=7.4M Target=$55.85 Stop=$61.11
POSITION: NOV OL - Mar. $60p (-42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nov.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
APOL: Researching date.
ATW: Forecast late February or first week of March.
BUCY: Broke higher off the 50 day EMA on rising volume and testing it Friday.
BVN: Forecast 2-28-08
CEDC: Researching date
CLF: Researching date
CPRT: Forecast first week of March
EOG: Forecast the first week of February. Excellent breakout on volume.
GG: Forecast 2-21-08
ISRG: Wildcard. Researching date.
JOYG: Early March
MA: Forecast late April
MM: Researching date.
OTEX: No announcement 2-7-08. Set up well to break higher.
SID: Good test of the late January break higher.
UPL: Forecast second week of February. Surging higher on solid volume Friday.
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/11/2008
BAX (Baxter Intl.--$61.48; +0.60; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bax.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-24-08
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Volume moved to average as BAX gapped higher but traded in a wide range, giving back most of its gain. Still looks solid, still ready to buy on a continued move higher. To recap: Gapped higher in early January, clearing an 8 week ascending base and rallying to 65. It fell in the January selling, but ht is held at the 50 day EMA (60.34), working laterally at that level the past week. Excellent position to make the next break higher. Lower, below average volume the past week, and looking for BAX to make the next break higher on stronger trade to show us the buyers are back in.
Volume: 3.857M Avg Volume: 3.774M
BUY POINT: New: From the close on continued solid trade (orig. $61.44) Volume=4M Target=$69.95 Stop=$59.97
POSITION: BAX EL - May $60c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bax.html
Play Date: 02/07/2008
FLO (Flowers Foods--$24.22; -0.37; optionable): Processed and packaged food
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flo.html
EARNINGS: Third week of February (not confirmed by company)
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Testing back after the move the past week, tapping the 10 day EMA on the low (24.03) with lower, average trade. Nice test resetting the next move higher. Want to see volume move up as the stock does the same. To recap: Food. Have to have it, recession or not. Thus FLO broke higher in early December, moving to a new high out of a 6 month base. It rallied to 25 and then the January selling hit, pushing FLO into the current 7 week base. It surged wildly to end January and start February, moving on massive volume. Then it came back this week on lower and lower volume to test that move and form the handle to its base. Nice tap at the 10 day EMA on the Thursday low and then a bounce higher. Very solid and just looking for a new break higher on strong volume to give us the entry point.
Volume: 581.998K Avg Volume: 570.624K
BUY POINT: $24.34 Volume=750K Target=$27.95 Stop=$23.55
POSITION: FLO GX - July $22.50c (61 delta, 54 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/flo.html
Play Date: 02/11/2008
RIO (Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce--$32.00; +0.09; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rio.html
STATUS: Trend reversal. Gapped higher but then reversed to close just over the 50 day SMA. Solid rise in volume. Looking for the next bounce higher to move in. To recap: RIO was a leader in 2007 then topped in late October. It has faded the past three months, coming back to the 200 day SMA (28.14) and a bit lower on the test in January. It has bounced from that level, rallying to the down trendline to start the month, testing back to the 10 and 18 day EMA the past week, and then breaking higher over that resistance Monday. Volume was up as RIO rallied to the 50 day EMA on the close. Looking for more as it continues higher.
Volume: 28.849M Avg Volume: 24.277M
BUY POINT: $32.32 Volume=28M Target=$37.77 Stop=$30.21
POSITION: RIO FZ - June $32.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rio.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/04/2008
CHNR (China Natural Resources--$23.34; +0.36; no options): Chinese industrial metals, minerals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chnr.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Gapped higher but stalled at the 90 day SMA. Volume was up to average. Looking for a bit more trade to take it to the breakout. To recap: Strong, above average volume, the first in over a month, as CHNR surges off the 200 day SMA (15.88). This base has formed the past 16 weeks, setting up a great foundation for a new breakout and run higher. Strong money flow is strong and sharply ahead of price. CHNR is starting to follow the money higher.
Volume: 699.676K Avg Volume: 555.063K
BUY POINT: New: $23.45 (orig. $23.32) Volume=550K Target=$29.97 Stop=$21.69
POSITION: - Stock (no opition chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chnr.html
Play Date: 02/11/2008
DRYS (Dryships--$77.20; -0.58; optionable): Bulk shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drys.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Gapped higher Tuesday but then reversed to close lower. Volume was a bit higher but still a bit below average. Still a solid pattern and can still give us the breakout move. To recap: Strong runner in 2007 through October, and after that surge it needed to test. It did, tumbling about 50% on the initial run. Over the past 7 weeks it has set up the current base as part of the larger 4 month cup that is forming. This pattern often forms at the bottom of a cup. Started to break higher Monday, clearing the early January peak. Needs some more volume as it makes the break higher.
Volume: 4.189M Avg Volume: 4.388M
BUY POINT: $78.05 Volume=6M Target=$93.50 Stop=$72.11
POSITION: DQR FO - June $75c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/drys.html
Play Date: 02/11/2008
SPN (Superior Energy--$41.46; -0.64; optionable): Oil and gas equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spn.html
EARNINGS: 2-26-08
STATUS: Double bottom. Tried to continue the run off the 200 day SMA but reversed to close lower on lighter, average volume. Excellent action with surging money flow. To recap: Surging Monday on above average volume after three weeks of below average trade. SPN gapped higher in early January, clearing a seven month base on strong, strong volume. In the January selling it came back to test and fill most of the gap, holding at the 200 day SMA (37.89). It formed a double bottom at that level, tapping down Thursday at the 200 day and then starting the rebound. Excellent volume as it surges higher, and looking to move in as it continues the break higher.
Volume: 1.198M Avg Volume: 1.122M
BUY POINT: $42.55 Volume=1.2M Target=$48.95 Stop=$41.11
POSITION: SPN FH - June $40c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/spn.html
Play Date: 02/09/2008
WFR (Memc Electronic--$76.88; -2.30; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-24-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Gapped higher but as with many techs, WFR turned over to close lower. Lower volume, however, shows not many sellers. Looking for it to hold near here and then resume the move higher, giving us a good buy off the test. To recap: Taking another look at WFR as it rebounded right back up after the Tuesday dump to some support at 70. Broke above its recent range Friday, but no volume. This is a short 5 week pattern that is part of a larger topping pattern, but WFR has set up to make the break higher, and if there is some volume as it makes the move it can break up that pattern and give us a very nice run higher.
Volume: 4.746M Avg Volume: 5.598M
BUY POINT: $77.94 Volume=7M Target=$93.50 Stop=$74.18
POSITION: WFR DO - Apr. $75c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wfr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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