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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/14/2008
GES (Guess? Inc.--$39.54; -1.13; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/ges.html
EARNINGS: 3-19-08
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After peaking in October GES trended lower into the January low and reversal. It recovered and formed a 5 week reverse head and shoulders patter at the bottom of the downtrend. It surged higher Monday and Tuesday, clearing the base and the 50 day EMA (38.95) resistance as well. Came back Wednesday and Thursday to test, coming back toward the 50 day EMA on very low, below average volume. Looking for it to complete the test of the 50 day EMA support and then after that pick it up as it rebounds on rising trade. That rising trade shows us the buyers are back in and ready to push it higher in its base.
Volume: 1.416M Avg Volume: 2.023M
BUY POINT: $40.21 Volume=3M Target=$45.25 Stop=$38.89
POSITION: GES FH - June $40c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ges.html
Play Date: 02/14/2008
STLD (Steel Dynamics--$55.13; +1.39; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stld.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-28-08
STATUS: Double bottom. STLD just cleared the 'hump' in its 7 week base that formed using the 200 day SMA (47.57) on the lows as support. No blowout volume, just solid trade moving it higher. It may be ready to pause and test that move over 54 before it moves higher, and that would give us a great entry point. On a continued move up from here, however, we will look at starting some positions and then picking up some more on the test.
Volume: 1.98M Avg Volume: 2.105M
BUY POINT: $55.97 Volume=3M Target=$65.95 Stop=$52.89
POSITION: RQL EK - May $55c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/stld.html
Play Date: 02/14/2008
XTO (XTO Energy--$55.00; -1.61; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-12-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Surged higher heading into earnings, rallying ahead of the news. When it came out XTO started to test on that day. Friday XTO gapped lower on some very strong volume, but we still think it is going to perform well once this test is over. Looking for a test of the 10 day EMA (54.12) and then rebound to continue the breakout move.
Volume: 9.072M Avg Volume: 5.006M
BUY POINT: $54.39 Volume=7M Target=$62.48 Stop=$53.22
POSITION: XTO EK - May $55c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xto.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/14/2008
INTC (Intel--$20.46; -0.75; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/intc.html
EARNINGS: announced 1-15-08
STATUS: Put. INTC has been a disaster since peaking in December, then gapping lower in early January and again in mid-January on its earnings. It recovered to early February, sold, then recovered again to the 18 day EMA. It started to roll over again Thursday, breaking down through the 10 day EMA (20.66) on rising though still below average volume. Typically you get three to four gaps lower in a serious downtrend, and it looks as if INTC is setting up for another gap lower. A move to the target lands a 48% gain.
Volume: 71.583M Avg Volume: 76.084M
BUY POINT: $20.32 Volume=85M Target=$18.75 Stop=$20.98
POSITION: NQ PU - Apr. $21p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/intc.html
Play Date: 02/14/2008
IWM (Ishares Russell 2000--$70.18; -1.67; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iwm.html
STATUS: Put. IWM rallied back up to the 50 day EMA (72.33) Wednesday and gapped to that level Thursday. Then just as in early February IWM rolled over and started to sell. Volume was still low, but this has the look of a rollover to take it down past the February lows just over 68. A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 78.31M Avg Volume: 96.14M
BUY POINT: $69.88 Volume=98M Target=$67.35 Stop=$71.11
POSITION: DIW OR - Mar. $70p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/iwm.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
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