|
|
trade stock, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
We apoligize for the late delivery this evening. We suffered a serious programming issue that delayed us. We appreciate your patience.
THE PLAYS:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 02/14/2008
GES (Guess? Inc.--$39.54; -1.13; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/ges.html
EARNINGS: 3-19-08
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After peaking in October GES trended lower into the January low and reversal. It recovered and formed a 5 week reverse head and shoulders patter at the bottom of the downtrend. It surged higher Monday and Tuesday, clearing the base and the 50 day EMA (38.95) resistance as well. Came back Wednesday and Thursday to test, coming back toward the 50 day EMA on very low, below average volume. Looking for it to complete the test of the 50 day EMA support and then after that pick it up as it rebounds on rising trade. That rising trade shows us the buyers are back in and ready to push it higher in its base.
Volume: 1.416M Avg Volume: 2.023M
BUY POINT: $40.21 Volume=3M Target=$45.25 Stop=$38.89
POSITION: GES FH - June $40c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ges.html
Play Date: 02/14/2008
XTO (XTO Energy--$55.00; -1.61; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-12-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Surged higher heading into earnings, rallying ahead of the news. When it came out XTO started to test on that day. Friday XTO gapped lower on some very strong volume, but we still think it is going to perform well once this test is over. Looking for a test of the 10 day EMA (54.12) and then rebound to continue the breakout move.
Volume: 9.072M Avg Volume: 5.006M
BUY POINT: $54.39 Volume=7M Target=$62.48 Stop=$53.22
POSITION: XTO EK - May $55c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xto.html
New Downside Plays:
Play Date: 02/14/2008
INTC (Intel--$20.46; -0.75; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/intc.html
EARNINGS: announced 1-15-08
STATUS: Put. INTC has been a disaster since peaking in December, then gapping lower in early January and again in mid-January on its earnings. It recovered to early February, sold, then recovered again to the 18 day EMA. It started to roll over again Thursday, breaking down through the 10 day EMA (20.66) on rising though still below average volume. Typically you get three to four gaps lower in a serious downtrend, and it looks as if INTC is setting up for another gap lower. A move to the target lands a 48% gain.
Volume: 71.583M Avg Volume: 76.084M
BUY POINT: $20.32 Volume=85M Target=$18.75 Stop=$20.98
POSITION: NQ PU - Apr. $21p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/intc.html
Play Date: 02/14/2008
IWM (Ishares Russell 2000--$70.18; -1.67; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iwm.html
STATUS: Put. IWM rallied back up to the 50 day EMA (72.33) Wednesday and gapped to that level Thursday. Then just as in early February IWM rolled over and started to sell. Volume was still low, but this has the look of a rollover to take it down past the February lows just over 68. A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 78.31M Avg Volume: 96.14M
BUY POINT: $69.88 Volume=98M Target=$67.35 Stop=$71.11
POSITION: DIW OR - Mar. $70p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/iwm.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
APOL: Now that is an ugly dive lower
ATW: Forecast late February or first week of March. Nice break higher on volume.
BUCY: Coming back to test and we will see if it gives a good buy point out of it.
BVN: Forecast 2-28-08
CEDC: Researching date
CLF: Researching date
CPRT: Forecast first week of March
EOG: Forecast the first week of February. No split announcement but a great break higher and it is now testing that break, setting up the next entry point.
GG: Forecast 2-21-08
ISRG: Wildcard. Researching date.
JEC: Researching date
JOYG: Early March
MA: Forecast late April
MM: Researching date.
OTEX: No announcement 2-7-08. Made the break higher and is now pausing a bit after the surge.
UPL: Forecast second week of February. Still moving higher though no split announcement yet.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 02/14/2008
STLD (Steel Dynamics--$55.13; +1.39; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stld.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-28-08
STATUS: Double bottom. STLD just cleared the 'hump' in its 7 week base that formed using the 200 day SMA (47.57) on the lows as support. No blowout volume, just solid trade moving it higher. It may be ready to pause and test that move over 54 before it moves higher, and that would give us a great entry point. On a continued move up from here, however, we will look at starting some positions and then picking up some more on the test.
Volume: 1.98M Avg Volume: 2.105M
BUY POINT: $55.97 Volume=3M Target=$65.95 Stop=$52.89
POSITION: RQL EK - May $55c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/stld.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 02/13/2008
JEC (Jacobs Engineering--$76.79; -1.74; optionable): Engineering services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jec.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-22-08
STATUS: Double bottom. Paused Thursday on low volume after the bounce off the 200 day SMA, taking a moment after the second bounce higher off that level that started last week. Nice test, and it may take another day or two of testing to set up the next move. To recap: Sold off in the January selling along with most stocks, even those with the overseas connections. Bottomed at the 200 day SMA (72.43), however, a level where the institutions buy in more or sell it off. It bounced, tested, then bounced again this past week. Low volume on the move, however. Strong money flow is leading higher, but it needs to show a volume spike as it makes the break higher.
Volume: 1.433M Avg Volume: 1.805M
BUY POINT: $79.75 Volume=2.5M Target=$95.75 Stop=$75.68
POSITION: JEC GP - July $80c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jec.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/13/2008
BTU (Peabody Energy--$57.07; +0.09; optionable): Coal
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/btu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-31-08
STATUS: Double bottom. Surged higher Thursday, continued the Wednesday recovery bounce. Ran out of as and reversed to flat, however on continuing above average volume. Still in excellent position to break higher despite the Thursday reversal. To recap: Made its second leg in the 7 week pattern at the 200 day SMA (50.78) last week and bounced higher. Tried to reverse Tuesday, but then turned right back up Wednesday on continuing strong, above average volume. Solid money flow, and this hiccup Tuesday let some of the selling pressure off and on a continued move higher it is a buy.
Volume: 5.832M Avg Volume: 4.881M
BUY POINT: $58.05 Volume=7M Target=$66.95 Stop=$54.88
POSITION: BTU FK - June $55c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/btu.html
Play Date: 02/11/2008
RIO (Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce--$32.21; -0.47; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rio.html
STATUS: Trend reversal. Stalled at the 90 day SMA (33.01) and faded Thursday for a modest loss on even lower, below average volume. Pausing and moving laterally after the early week break higher, and we are looking for a new break to the upside though it may take a couple more sessions for it to do that. Still quite nice. To recap: RIO was a leader in 2007 then topped in late October. It has faded the past three months, coming back to the 200 day SMA (28.14) and a bit lower on the test in January. It has bounced from that level, rallying to the down trendline to start the month, testing back to the 10 and 18 day EMA the past week, and then breaking higher over that resistance Monday. Volume was up as RIO rallied to the 50 day EMA on the close. Looking for more as it continues higher.
Volume: 19.295M Avg Volume: 24.175M
BUY POINT: $32.32 Volume=28M Target=$37.77 Stop=$30.21
POSITION: RIO FZ - June $32.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rio.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/12/2008
ABMD (Abiomed--$15.11; -0.10; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abmd.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-7-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Gapped higher Thursday but could not hold the move. Unlike the indices, however, the downside was modest, holding the 10 day EMA and on low volume to boot. Continuing its lateral move over near support, setting up the next break higher. To recap: Gapped higher on its earnings, but not enough to push it out of its 7 week base that formed with a fast, hard drop to the 200 day SMA in that mid-January selling. Nice recovery, nice easy pullback this month has set up the break higher. Just looking for that strong break higher.
Volume: 159.918K Avg Volume: 238.103K
BUY POINT: $15.81 Volume=358K Target=$18.95 Stop=$14.85
POSITION: IBU FC - June $15c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/abmd.html
Play Date: 02/12/2008
NOK (Nokia--$36.22; -1.04; optionable): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nok.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-24-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Turned back from the 90 day SMA (37.32) on continued below average volume, closing at the 50 day EMA. Looking for a hold here and then rebound on rising, above average traded. To recap: Strong rally from early January 2007 through early November. It has sold back into a base, holding at the 200 day SMA on the lows and fully testing the break higher from August that marked the last run higher in the rally. It has formed up the current 6 week base at the bottom of its larger base, breaking higher Tuesday with a gap on higher volume. Stalled at the 90 day SMA (37.31) but looking for a break over that to give us the buy as it clears that resistance.
Volume: 15.486M Avg Volume: 15.463M
BUY POINT: $37.88 Volume=23M Target=$43.65 Stop=$35.98
POSITION: NAY GG - July $35c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nok.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
trade stock
stock split
|
