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stock recommendation, stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside: Some of those solid leaders setting up good bases and some stocks we already have positions in as we stick with winners in position to move higher again.
Play Date: 02/16/2008
CTRP (Ctrip.com International--$51.71; +2.21; optionable): Chinese travel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctrp.html
EARNINGS: 2-27-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle Up and down the past month along with many stocks, but setting up a double bottom after a 2 month pullback. Made a higher low in early February then a break higher Tuesday on strong, above average volume. It worked laterally a bit more and then broke higher through the 50 day EMA (51.22) Friday. Big 2007 winner that needed a break, and this has given it that breather to set up the foundation for a new run. Ready to move in if CTRP can continue the break higher on stronger volume.
Volume: 871.345K Avg Volume: 819.883K
BUY POINT: $52.65 Volume=1.2M Target=$62.95 Stop=$49.11
POSITION: QCT FJ - June $50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ctrp.html
Play Date: 02/16/2008
GIGM (Gigamedia--$19.99; -0.08; optionable): Online gaming software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gigm.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice 15 week base has set up the breakout, laying the foundation for a new run after GIGM's strong rally from August to November. Spent the last week working laterally over the 90 day SMA after a high volume jump to start the week. May take a few more sessions to finish the base, but setting up well with money flow leading higher.
Volume: 547.876K Avg Volume: 1.054M
BUY POINT: $20.78 Volume=1.6M Target=$24.95 Stop=$19.33
POSITION: GBU GD - July $20c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gigm.html
Play Date: 02/16/2008
HES (Hess Corp.--$90.65; -0.55; optionable): Oil and gas refining/marketing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hes.html
EARNINGS: Announce 1-30-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Huge surge in December capped out HES' move for the year, and then it slipped into the current 7 week base over the 50 day EMA, similar to the one from October to November that set up that prior run. Nice handle last week and HES is set up to make the breakout and run to the prior high at 105.
Volume: 4.085M Avg Volume: 4.828M
BUY POINT: $93.55 Volume=7M Target=$105.45 Stop=$88.65
POSITION: IGG ER - May $90c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hes.html
New buy points on current positions:
Play Date: 02/16/2008
CCC (Calgon Carbon--$17.74; +0.27; optionable): Air and water purification systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ccc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Excellent surge out of a 9 week reverse head and shoulders base last Monday. Nice breakout then a quick test Thursday and Friday of the 10 day EMA (17.10), tapping that level on the Friday low and bouncing to close positive. Ready to move in as CCC resumes its breakout move.
Volume: 579.02K Avg Volume: 646.878K
BUY POINT: $17.91 Volume=700K Target=$21.45 Stop=$16.97
POSITION: CCC GW - July $17.50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ccc.html
Play Date: 02/16/2008
ILMN (Illumina--$71.95; +1.10; optionable): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ilmn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-4-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice break higher last week, then tapping the 10 day EMA on the Friday low before bouncing up for a solid gain on the session. Volume moved up above average; as the market volume was lower this shows some real interest. Ready to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 1.688M Avg Volume: 1.288M
BUY POINT: $72.32 Volume=1.8M Target=$82.95 Stop=$69.11
POSITION: IQA FN - June $70c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ilmn.html
Play Date: 02/16/2008
OTEX (Open Text--$33.94; -0.56; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/otex.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-7-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice break higher lat week on strong volume as OTEX moved off the 50 day EMA. It then started testing to end the week, setting up a new handle to its 14 week base (handle or test, very similar in this pattern). Likely to come back to the 10 day EMA (33) before it makes its bounce, but want to be ready.
Volume: 823.422K Avg Volume: 687.713K
BUY POINT: $34.31 Volume=1M Target=$39.95 Stop=$32.91
POSITION: QFT EG - May $35c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/otex.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/16/2008
LTD (The Limited--$17.55; +0.27; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/ltd.html
EARNINGS: 2-27-08
STATUS: Put. In a steady downtrend since the April and July double top. It sold hard to begin January and then recovered the past month. If tried to hold the line at the 50 day EMA (18.11) but then broke lower Thursday. It bounced modestly Friday and may bounce up again to test the resistance near 18. Looking to pick it up as it comes back down off of that test. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 3.781M Avg Volume: 5.924M
BUY POINT: $17.68 Volume=6M Target=$16.05 Stop=$18.16
POSITION: LTD QW - May 17.50p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ltd.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock pick
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