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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS: More solid stocks setting to the upside.
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 02/19/2008
ACI (Arch Coal--$52.82; +3.42; optionable): Coal
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aci.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-1-08
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. ACI broke out from an 8 month base to start February, surging on strong volume. Volume has been strong all month versus the weak trade in the market as a howled. It surged to 55 last week and has come back to test, tapping the 18 day EMA (48.14) on the Friday low and then jumping back Tuesday. Nice break higher from its second test of the breakout, leaving plenty of upside on this run. Looking to move in as ACI moves higher.
Volume: 7.513M Avg Volume: 3.786M
BUY POINT: $53.38 Volume=5.5M Target=$63.95 Stop=$49.91
POSITION: ACI GJ - July $50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aci.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 02/19/2008
AGU (Agrium--$67.96; +2.65; optionable): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-13-08
STATUS: Ascending base. Another leader in the prior rally that has formed up a rising base during the market ups and downs, setting the next move higher. Solid volume last week and then break over the February highs Tuesday on rising, above average volume. This is breaking it higher from its 4 month base. On continued move showing some solid early trade we will look to move in.
Volume: 3.757M Avg Volume: 3.12M
BUY POINT: $68.42 Volume=4M Target=$78.88 Stop=$64.55
POSITION: AGU GN - July $70c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/agu.html
Play Date: 02/19/2008
AKS (AK Steel Holding--$48.63; +2.48; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aks.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-22.08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A sweet 4 month base has formed to set up the next run after the 2007 rally that peaked in late October. Textbook double bottom with handle and a break higher Tuesday on rising, above average volume after a week of below average volume trade. Money flow is strong and leading higher. Looking to move in as AKS continues this breakout move.
Volume: 3.93M Avg Volume: 2.94M
BUY POINT: $49.11 Volume=4M Target=$58.95 Stop=$46.48
POSITION: AKS FS - June $47.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aks.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ATW: Forecast late February or first week of March.
BUCY: Gapping higher Tuesday on solid volume
BVN: Forecast 2-28-08
CEDC: Researching date
CLF: Researching date
CPRT: Forecast first week of March
EOG: No split announcement but a great break higher and it is now testing that break, setting up the next entry point as it tests the 10 day EMA.
GG: Forecast 2-21-08
ISRG: Wildcard. Researching date.
JEC: Researching date
JOYG: Early March
MA: Forecast late April
MM: Researching date.
OTEX: No announcement 2-7-08.
STLD: Researching date
UPL: Forecast second week of February. Still moving higher though no split announcement yet.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 02/19/2008
FLS (Flowserve--$98.01; +1.84; optionable): Oil and gas equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fls.html
EARNINGS: 2-27-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Nice setup with an 11 week base that formed after a nice 2007 run higher. Nice pullback that held the 200 day SMA on the lows, forming a short double bottom at that key support level. Gapped higher to start the month and has worked laterally up to the prior highs. It is set up, just has to show the break over the 100 level on strong volume to show the buyers are ready to drive it higher.
Volume: 624.076K Avg Volume: 816.261K
BUY POINT: $100.55 Volume=1.2M Target=$1115.75 Stop=$95.48
POSITION: FLS GT - July $100c (49 delta, low OI) or FLS DS - Apr. $95c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fls.html
Play Date: 02/19/2008
MON (Monsanto--$117.87; +2.52; optionable): Ag chemicals, biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mon.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-3-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. MON continued rallying on through mid-January. It gapped on earnings but shortly thereafter it ran out of steam given the long run in 2000 preceding that move. It sold hard mid-month with the market, then held the 90 day SMA support, building the pattern using the 90 day SMA as support. Gapped higher to start last week, then moved laterally on low volume to form the handle. Gapped higher Tuesday on rising but still below average volume. Looking for a bit more trade as it continues the break higher.
Volume: 5.793M Avg Volume: 6.586M
BUY POINT: $120.21 Volume=7.5M Target=$137.95 Stop=$115.95
POSITION: MFP GD - July $120c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mon.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 02/16/2008
OTEX (Open Text--$33.13; -0.81; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/otex.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-7-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After an easy pullback to end last week, OTEX sold off to the 10 day EMA on the close. Larger price move than we wanted, but volume was lower and below average. We can live with it. Just looking for the break higher on rising trade. To recap: Nice break higher lat week on strong volume as OTEX moved off the 50 day EMA. It then started testing to end the week, setting up a new handle to its 14 week base (handle or test, very similar in this pattern). Likely to come back to the 10 day EMA (33) before it makes its bounce, but want to be ready.
Volume: 686.686K Avg Volume: 687.713K
BUY POINT: $34.31 Volume=1M Target=$39.95 Stop=$32.91
POSITION: QFT EG - May $35c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/otex.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/16/2008
HES (Hess Corp.--$94.09; +3.44; optionable): Oil and gas refining/marketing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hes.html
EARNINGS: Announce 1-30-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Gapped higher Tuesday though volume did not follow it, and HES sold off from the high on the close. Still a solid gain, and on a continued move higher it is still a buy. To recap: Huge surge in December capped out HES' move for the year, and then it slipped into the current 7 week base over the 50 day EMA, similar to the one from October to November that set up that prior run. Nice handle last week and HES is set up to make the breakout and run to the prior high at 105.
Volume: 3.532M Avg Volume: 4.828M
BUY POINT: $93.55 Volume=7M Target=$105.45 Stop=$88.65
POSITION: IGG ER - May $90c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hes.html
Play Date: 02/14/2008
GES (Guess? Inc.--$39.49; -0.81; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/ges.html
EARNINGS: 3-19-08
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Plopped back to the 50 day EMA but on continued low volume, so not bad. Just waiting for it to make the move again, and looking fo a bit more trade this time around. To recap: After peaking in October GES trended lower into the January low and reversal. It recovered and formed a 5 week reverse head and shoulders patter at the bottom of the downtrend. It surged higher Monday and Tuesday, clearing the base and the 50 day EMA (38.95) resistance as well. Came back Wednesday and Thursday to test, coming back toward the 50 day EMA on very low, below average volume. Looking for it to complete the test of the 50 day EMA support and then after that pick it up as it rebounds on rising trade. That rising trade shows us the buyers are back in and ready to push it higher in its base.
Volume: 1.089M Avg Volume: 2.019M
BUY POINT: $40.21 Volume=3M Target=$45.25 Stop=$38.89
POSITION: GES FH - June $40c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ges.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/16/2008
CCC (Calgon Carbon--$17.91; +0.17; optionable): Air and water purification systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ccc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped higher Tuesday, continuing the Friday bounce off the 10 day EMA, but it closed well off its high to close basically flat as the market reversed. Still in great shape and still looking to move in as it continues higher on a bit more volume. To recap: Excellent surge out of a 9 week reverse head and shoulders base last Monday. Nice breakout then a quick test Thursday and Friday of the 10 day EMA (17.10), tapping that level on the Friday low and bouncing to close positive. Ready to move in as CCC resumes its breakout move.
Volume: 482.372K Avg Volume: 646.878K
BUY POINT: $17.91 Volume=700K Target=$21.45 Stop=$16.97
POSITION: CCC GW - July $17.50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ccc.html
Play Date: 02/16/2008
GIGM (Gigamedia--$19.50; -0.49; optionable):software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gigm.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working on the handle, fading back to the 90 day SMA again on Tuesday with very low volume. No issue with that as it sets up its base a bit better. To recap: Nice 15 week base has set up the breakout, laying the foundation for a new run after GIGM's strong rally from August to November. Spent the last week working laterally over the 90 day SMA after a high volume jump to start the week. May take a few more sessions to finish the base, but setting up well with money flow leading higher.
Volume: 565.763K Avg Volume: 1.054M
BUY POINT: $20.78 Volume=1.6M Target=$24.95 Stop=$19.33
POSITION: GBU GD - July $20c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gigm.html
CONTINUING DOWNSIDE PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/14/2008
INTC (Intel--$20.16; +0.05; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/intc.html
EARNINGS: announced 1-15-08
STATUS: Put. Tried the 18 day EMA again on the high then turned over to close flat. Lower, below average volume, but still primed to make a break lower. The HPQ earnings outlook may give it some strength early, but a reversal from that is a buy. To recap: INTC has been a disaster since peaking in December, then gapping lower in early January and again in mid-January on its earnings. It recovered to early February, sold, then recovered again to the 18 day EMA. It started to roll over again Thursday, breaking down through the 10 day EMA (20.66) on rising though still below average volume. Typically you get three to four gaps lower in a serious downtrend, and it looks as if INTC is setting up for another gap lower. A move to the target lands a 48% gain.
Volume: 65.702M Avg Volume: 76.323M
BUY POINT: New: On a continued move lower (orig. $20.32) Volume=85M Target=$18.75 Stop=$20.98
POSITION: NQ PU - Apr. $21p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/intc.html
Play Date: 02/16/2008
LTD (The Limited--$17.32; -0.23; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/ltd.html
EARNINGS: 2-27-08
STATUS: Put. Gapped up to tap the 10 and 18 day EMA on the high (1776) and then faded for a modest loss. No volume yet so didn't move in, but if it continues lower on some better trade it is a go. To recap: In a steady downtrend since the April and July double top. It sold hard to begin January and then recovered the past month. If tried to hold the line at the 50 day EMA (18.11) but then broke lower Thursday. It bounced modestly Friday and may bounce up again to test the resistance near 18. Looking to pick it up as it comes back down off of that test. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 3.074M Avg Volume: 5.924M
BUY POINT: On a further move lower on rising trade (orig. $17.68) Volume=6M Target=$16.05 Stop=$18.16
POSITION: LTD QW - May 17.50p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ltd.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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