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us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 2 of 3
CONTINUING PLAYS
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LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.) Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon Market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor Market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACI 02/19 Test 18 52.69 -1.95 53.88 63.95 4.2M 5.5M 50.89
Current. After the Tuesday and Wednesday break higher it came back on much lower volume to test, still well above the 10 day EMA (51.36).
AGU 02/19 DB hdl 71.02 +0.60 69.15 79.88 4.3M 4M 65.48
Current. Gapped higher and held onto a bit of the gain as AGU continued higher on this nice breakout move.
AKS 02/19 DB hdl 48.81 -2.49 49.55 58.95 3.5M 4M 49.21
Current. Big breakout Wednesday and then turned down Thursday in some sector concerns after MTL raised its prices. Don't like these next day turns back on a breakout, but the breakout is still intact and volume was lower.
ATW 02/13 Test 50 92.27 -3.09 91.18 104.65 731K 700K 93.11
Current. OII had a cautious outlook and the whole sector fell back on that news. Held above the 50 day SMA on the close.
BABY 02/19 DB hdl 19.07 +0.58 19.15 22.95 412K 325K 17.89
Entered today. Solid volume as this BABY screamed higher in its breakout from a neat little pattern. Very good action in a weak market.
BTU 02/13 Dbl btm 57.24 -2.47 59.10 67.95 4.7M 7M 57.88
Current. All energy took a hit Thursday as part of the Boone Pickens 'short oil' statements. Lower, below average volume so no dumping, just no bids in energy on the session.
BVN 01/31 PreAnn 71.93 -1.07 70.12 79.95 599K 875K 69.51
Current. Gapped higher to a new all-time high but could not hold it, fading on the close on continued below average volume. Still in its trend above the 18 day EMA so leaving it alone.
CCC 02/16 Test BO 17.19 -0.52 17.91 21.45 474K 700K 16.97
Buy Not Issued.
CCC 01/26 Asc Bse 17.19 -0.52 16.89 20.55 474K 1.1M 16.97
Current. Faded back to tap the highs in the pattern, holding above the 18 day EMA on the low. Continued low volume on this fade, just what you want.
CHT 01/22 Test BO 22.35 +0.29 21.89 25.95 1.9M 1.2M 21.57
Current. Solid jump in above average volume as CHT pushed to a new all-time closing high.
CHU 01/26 Asc Tri 23.04 -0.90 23.86 28.95 1.5M 2.5M 23.62
Current. Came under pressure as volume ticked higher toward average, falling to a support level at 23.
CMED 02/04 Test BO 52.15 -0.10 51.68 59.45 450K 935K 51.45
Current. Nice lateral move consolidating last week's breakout, moving laterally as the 10 day EMA rises to catch up with it. Very solid.
COIN 02/04 Test 18 11.83 +0.20 10.38 12.95 3.6M 978K 11.38
Target Hit. Gapped modestly higher and then surged higher on strong volume, hitting 13.08 on the high. We took some nice 24.7% gain on our stock position. It closed well off the high but still is solid after that break higher off the 10 day EMA on Wednesday.
CREE 02/02 Cup hdl 33.06 +0.19 31.47 36.75 2.4M 3M 32.42
Current. Gapped higher after the reach lower Wednesday and intraday rebound. It has made the test of the last surge higher, and it looks ready to continue the move. It was held back Thursday by the market's weakness.
CRZO 02/20 DB hdl 54.41 -0.30 55.48 63.95 459K 475K 52.45
Buy Not Issued. Gapped higher and rallied well early, but then faded as many energy stocks struggled as oil took a breather from the run over 100/bbl.
CSX 02/20 DB hdl 50.26 -0.33 51.22 59.39 4.3M 9M 48.94
Entered today. Rallied higher early, continuing the solid Wednesday move. It could not hold to the close, however, finishing modestly lower as volume did not kick in as it did Tuesday.
CTRP 02/16 Rev HS 52.83 +0.70 52.65 62.95 510K 1.2M 49.11
Buy Not Issued. Continued the move higher but no volume yet to really drive it. If it gets more trade on this move it is a buy.
DBC 02/12 Asc Bse 34.82 -0.19 33.83 37.95 566K 900K 33.87
Current. Took a day off after the strong surge this week. Nice low volume pause after a strong, high volume run. Just letting it test.
DRYS 02/20 Rev HS 85.65 +3.92 85.65 99.50 6.1M 6.8M 82.33
Buy Not Issued. Solid action, gapping higher and closing right at the buy point on rising, above average volume. Very solid in a weak market, and if it can continue this move we are looking to buy it.
FLO 02/07 Cup hdl 23.06 -1.03 24.87 28.48 819K 750K 23.91
Exited. Tough session, breaking below the 50 day EMA on rising volume. With that action we took it off the table.
FLS 02/19 Rev HS 102.08 +0.63 100.55 1115.7 867K 1.2M 95.48
Buy Not Issued. Continued its Wednesday move higher but was all over the map as it moved and volume did not ramp up, something lacking on this move thus far.
GIGM 02/16 DB hdl 19.71 -0.04 20.78 24.95 363K 1.6M 19.33
Buy Not Hit. Nice handle continues to set up to prepare for the breakout move.
HES 02/16 DB hdl 92.47 -1.94 94.35 106.45 3.2M 7M 90.91
Current. Turned lower on low volume, posting a loss but still holding above the 10 day EMA on that low trade in a nice pattern.
ILMN 02/16 Test BO 71.78 -1.06 72.32 82.95 735K 1.8M 69.11
Buy Not Issued. Still moving laterally above the 10 day EMA on low trade as it sets up the next move in the trend. Want to see some more trade to take a position.
ILMN 02/02 Test BO 71.78 -1.06 69.86 79.95 735K 1.2M 69.11
Current.
ISRG 02/09 Test 50 286.26 -5.17 307.88 349.00 477K 1.9M 299.88
Current. Under pressure, sliding through the 50 day EMA (290.37) on the close. Volume was extremely light. That indicates no dumping, but after that Tuesday dump lower it is in trouble.
JEC 02/13 Dbl btm 79.28 +1.44 79.75 95.75 2.6M 2.5M 75.68
Buy Not Issued. Volume hit its best level in a month as JEC gapped higher. It stalled at the 50 day EMA (80.83) and faded back modestly. Good traction here and if it continues we will look to buy in.
KWK 02/05 Test BO 33.99 -1.02 30.78 36.45 1.6M 3.4M 32.91
Target Hit. Gapped higher but didn't show any additional strength so we banked some 13% stock gain and 36.7% option gain given the strong surge the past two weeks. Will let it test and see if it sets up a new buy.
MA 02/09 Rev HS 204.48 -3.74 208.22 239.00 2.2M 5M 201.11
Current. Low volume persists as MA works laterally over the rising 50 day EMA. Being patient to let it make the break higher from this tight, low volume range.
MM 02/07 PreAnn 58.78 +1.11 52.78 61.45 338K 450K 56.89
Target Hit. Another gap higher, the third straight, as MM continued a two week surge. It started to waffle and we sold some positions, banking 12.7% stock and 84.9% option gain. Nice surge and letting the remaining positions work for us.
NOK 02/12 Rev HS 36.21 -0.50 37.88 43.65 11M 23M 35.98
Buy Not Hit. Not showing us any move, just stretching the pattern laterally, closing right on the 50 day EMA. Will give it a bit more time, but getting impatient. That is usually when something happens.
OTEX 02/16 Cup hdl 32.70 -0.36 34.31 39.95 431K 1M 32.91
Buy Not Issued.
OTEX 01/30 Test 50 32.70 -0.36 31.62 37.44 431K 825K 33.88
Current. Still testing the 18 day EMA (32.44) on low volume, forming up a very nice handle to the base.
POT 02/09 Rev HS 156.87 +0.87 143.57 162.65 7.2M 7.5M 153.55
Target Hit. Decided to take a part of the 10% stock, 34% option gain as POT gapped higher again but could not push significantly higher.
PTNR 02/09 Asc Bse 20.84 -0.01 22.12 26.65 126K 402K 20.74
Buy Not Hit. Tired of waiting. Will drop here as it tests the 50 day EMA but will continue watching it.
QID 01/30 Test 18 51.45 +0.78 50.96 57.32 32M 39M 51.88
Current. Reversed at the 18 day EMA yet again as the NASDAQ large caps solid and pushed this inverse index higher. Still trading blows day to day as the large cap indices set up the next move.
QID 01/26 Test 18 51.45 +0.78 51.57 57.32 32M 39M 51.88
Current.
RIMM 02/09 Dbl btm 106.69 +8.78 92.30 105.95 43M 32M 105.22
Target hit. Gapped higher on stronger than expected subscription growth. Cleared the 90 day SMA on the move but could not take it further. We banked some of the 16% stock and 57% option gain.
SDS 01/30 Test 18 63.33 +1.25 63.28 72.45 21M 25M 63.38
Current. Bounced back up in its lateral range as SP500 fell in its lateral range. Still in the process of resolving the lateral move in the indices, and that keeps it in the range for now. A bit more negative for the large caps Thursday so watching closely.
SDS 01/24 Test BO 63.33 +1.25 63.18 72.45 21M 30M 63.38
Current.
SPN 02/11 Dbl btm 43.10 -0.82 43.75 49.95 1.1M 1.2M 42.11
Current. Faded on the oil shorting/Pickens slide, but volume remained low and it was still well above the 10 day EMA after the close.
STLD 02/14 Dbl btm 58.48 -1.33 57.68 67.45 2.4M 3M 56.42
Current. Ran higher early but then faded for a loss following the solid break higher this week. Turned back at the December peak. Will let it test but don't want to see the character change and it start some high volume selling.
SVNT 02/06 Test 50 21.05 +0.43 21.33 25.95 1.3M 2M 20.22
Buy Not Issued. Volume was up and so was SVNT, but it could not sustain the move into the close. Still very solid in its pattern.
TJX 01/31 DB hdl 31.16 -0.02 32.07 36.95 7.7M 6.5M 30.31
Current. Could not continue the Wednesday gain, or at least hold it, closing flat. Solid move on the earnings news, and now TJMax has to hold those gains here.
TWM 01/24 Test 18 82.86 +3.16 85.77 97.95 8.7M 10M 82.05
Current. Strong volume as TMW bounces off the 50 day EMA as the small cap indices fade from the 50 day EMA.
VIP 02/12 Dbl btm 38.15 +0.07 38.36 45.65 3.1M 6M 36.57
Current. Gapped higher but did not get any more volume off the break higher and closed flat. Still moving higher but sure would like to see some more volume.
VVUS 01/26 Test BO 5.99 -0.01 6.37 7.98 576K 750K 6.11
Current. Large intraday trading range that saw no net move as VVUS runs in place. Needs to make one of these upside gains stick.
WDC 02/20 Cup hdl 31.30 +0.66 32.00 37.95 9M 5M 29.76
Entered today. Gapped higher and surged to 32.40 on strong volume but slid back as the market did the same but it managed to hold some green on the close.
WFR 02/09 Rev HS 80.25 +1.84 81.09 95.95 5.6M 7M 78.21
Current. Nice surge even if it did give back just over half the session gains. Rising volume though still below average. Like what it is showing.
XTO 02/14 Test BO 56.40 -2.20 55.21 62.97 9.1M 7M 56.38
Current. Reversed pretty hard as the 'short oil' comment from Pickens echoed. Still holding above the 10 day EMA (55.76) and in its breakout uptrend. Looks just as if it was a bad day for energy.
YTEC 02/13 Test BO 17.39 -0.24 18.48 23.55 154K 700K 17.19
Buy Not Hit. Still working laterally on low volume at the 10 day EMA. Nice, just needs to show us the next leg.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
CNH 01/30 HdShldr 51.30 +1.61 47.65 41.54 1.3M 850K 4615.0
Current. Gapped higher and ran but then stalled and fell back from its high and the 50 day EMA, giving back over half the gain. Needs to come back and fill that gap, and what it does there will tell us if it should be closed (i.e. it holds).
DIA 01/30 Put 123.20 -0.89 124.12 113.55 13M 26M 123.44
Current. Fell back through the short term moving averages and tapped the low of this week's range before a modest rebound. Tied to the Dow and that index is working through its own consolidation.
DIA 01/24 Put 123.20 -0.89 122.65 113.55 13M 26M 123.44
Current.
GRMN 02/09 Put 62.72 -1.75 65.58 59.54 6.7M 5.5M 64.32
Current. Continued lower after the upside gap and reversal on Wednesday and the earnings. How it trades at 60 will tell us more, but that is getting close to our target as well.
IBM 02/05 Put 106.93 -0.92 103.92 99.15 8.3M 9.5M 103.38
Current. Rallied up to the 200 day SMA on the high and then reversed to close negative. Still didn't show a lot of negative action given the market decline.
INTC 02/14 Put 20.30 -0.08 20.32 18.75 78M 85M 20.98
Buy Not Issued. Rallied through the 18 day EMA on the high and then reversed to close negative but still in the lateral range of this week. Need to see it crack 20 to really have confidence it is selling again.
IWM 02/14 Put 69.39 -1.38 69.88 67.35 86M 98M 71.11
Buy Not Issued.
IWM 02/09 Put 69.39 -1.38 69.09 66.04 86M 15M 70.44
Current. Gapped higher to tap at the 50 day EMA then reversed to close at a new low in this short lateral move. Small caps look vulnerable here to lead the next decline.
LTD 02/16 Put 17.19 -0.56 17.68 16.05 3.6M 6M 18.16
Buy Not Issued. Gapped and tapped the 50 day EMA early then reversed to close near the lows in this lateral move the past week. Volume was up but still very low. If it breaks down from here it is still a buy as it has plenty of downside room.
PCLN 02/05 Put 123.71 -3.80 95.45 86.05 1.4M 1.8M 94.11
Current. Gapped higher then turned over and sold back after that big surge higher. Lower volume so there was no reversal. It has to sell a lot more to make this even remotely interesting, but if the market rolls over again PCLn may follow in its own way. So, as we are already in, we just wait and see if it does turn back down.
SU 02/06 Dbl Top 96.47 -2.77 90.08 85.11 1.8M 2.6M 93.11
Current. Fell back through the 50 day EMA to the 18 day EMA. Stalling some after the rebound as oil prices climbed. Oil fades in value, then so does this stock. If oil does fall a la T. Boone's prediction then SU could fall right back into contention for us.
VLO 02/05 Put 59.84 -1.60 56.58 51.66 6.6M 9M 57.88
Current. Turned back after tapping the 50 day SMA on the Wednesday and Thursday highs. Closed at the 10 day EMA on low volume, but there was no volume on the way up either. Critical point for VLO; needs to fall through 59 to keep this thing interesting.
XLF 02/05 Put 26.62 -0.48 27.19 25.05 76M 115M 27.08
Current. Tapped the 18 day EMA on the high and then turned lower, continuing its fade below the 10 and 18 day EMA though it is working laterally as with the rest of the market this past week. Need to see a sharper break lower.
XOM 02/02 Put 86.92 -1.18 83.78 79.45 30M 27M 82.05
Current. Came back on rising trade after that Tuesday gap higher. Closed just below the 50 day EMA. Need to see it below 85.50 on more volume to see it in the game to resume the selling.
End part 2 of 3
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