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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/21/2008
DO (Diamond Offshore--$117.57; -1.20; optionable): Offshore drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/do.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-7-08
STATUS: Double bottom. Nice trade the past two sessions as DO moved up toward the key 120 level that marks the October peaks and the late January rebound peak. It formed an 8 week double bottom using the 200 day SMA as support for both legs. It may try to form a handle here, a lateral move just below the 'hump' in the middle of the pattern, but given the volume we want to be ready to move in if it makes a clean, high volume break higher.
Volume: 3.002M Avg Volume: 2.667M
BUY POINT: $120.22 Volume=4M Target=$138.95 Stop=$117.72
POSITION: DO FD - June $120c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/do.html
Play Date: 02/22/2008
DSX (Diana Shipping--$29.94; -0.77; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dsx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-15-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Didn't get a big pop out of earnings but it did continue working on its pattern, an 11 week reversed head and shoulders at the bottom of a 15 week cup base. This pattern often forms at the bottom of this kind of base in a turbulent market. Nice lateral move this week on lower trade the past few sessions. Quieting down in a final shakeout before it makes the break it looks to be wanting.
Volume: 1.698M Avg Volume: 2.313M
BUY POINT: $32.22 Volume=3.5M Target=$41.95 Stop=$30.88
POSITION: DSX FF - June $30c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dsx.html
Play Date: 02/22/2008
SGR (Shaw Group--$63.05; +1.30; optionable): Heavy construction services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sgr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-9-08
STATUS: Cup. SGR is bouncing higher off the 200 day SMA, working on the right side of a 16 week cup base. Moved higher the past two sessions, closing over the 90 day SMA (62.52) Thursday. If it can pick up some more trade we will look at a partial position on a further move higher. Then it will likely form a handle, and when it breaks higher from that we can add positions. If it rallies up near 70 before doing so we can even take some interim gain before it forms the handle.
Volume: 1.65M Avg Volume: 1.803M
BUY POINT: $63.88 Volume=2.5M Target=$74.95 Stop=$61.54
POSITION: SGR GL - July $60c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sgr.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/22/2008
AMZN (Amazon.com--$69.90; -3.74; optionable): online sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amzn.html
EARNINGS: 4-23-08
STATUS: Put. Double top spanning October to early January broke down in January, but AMZN tried to set up a bottom over 70, working in a 10 point range the past month. Thursday it turned down from near resistance at the 18 day EMA on rising, above average volume. Looking at the chart there is a big gap higher in late April 2007; it is going to fill that at some point and after this double top we think it is going to start working on that. Our initial goal is nowhere near so ambitious, but a move to that target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 13.157M Avg Volume: 9.915M
BUY POINT: $69.64 Volume=10M Target=$64.55 Stop=$70.84
POSITION: AQN PN - Apr. $70p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amzn.html
Play Date: 02/22/2008
UTX (United Technologies--$70.89; -1.16; optionable): Elevators, turbines, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/utx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-23-08
STATUS: Put. UTX broke below the 200 day SMA (74) to start the year, and after selling it spent the past month trying to get back through that level. It is failing. It has two distribution sessions this week, the latest on Thursday. Money flow is weak. Looks ready to run lower, and we don't need it to take out the January lows to makes us a nice 45%ish gain.
Volume: 4.581M Avg Volume: 5.193M
BUY POINT: $70.64 Volume=5.5M Target=$67.55 Stop=$72.22
POSITION: UTX PO - Apr. $75p (-66 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/utx.html
Play Date: 02/22/2008
XRAY (Dentsply--$39.27; -0.77; optionable): Dental instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-6-08
STATUS: Put. Failed to impress the market with its earnings. It was already down at the 200 day SMA (40.35) trying to recover from a mid-January dive lower. It recovered this key level but then slipped back through last Friday on strong volume. It worked laterally, but now it is heading back down from the December to January double top. A move to the target lands us a 52%ish gain.
Volume: 1.224M Avg Volume: 1.296M
BUY POINT: $39.04 Volume=1.4M Target=$37.00 Stop=$40.15
POSITION: XEQ PH - Apr. $40p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xray.html
Play Date: 02/22/2008
ZBRA (Zebra Technologies--$29.39; -0.61; optionable): Computer peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zbra.html
EARNINGS: 2-25-08
STATUS: Put. Nasty decline in December through mid-January, then a recovery into February. It failed, however, and slide lower, trying to consolidate the past couple of weeks with the market. Thursday it started lower again though volume was low. Money flow is weak, however, and it looks as if ZBRA wants to go test its prior lows and beyond. A move to the target lands a 60%ish gain.
Volume: 369.676K Avg Volume: 545.747K
BUY POINT: $29.12 Volume=700K Target=$26.05 Stop=$30.11
POSITION: ZBQ QF - May $30p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/zbra.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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