|
|
us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS: New upside plays in the Pre-Announcement section
New Downside Plays:
Play Date: 02/22/2008
AMZN (Amazon.com--$69.90; -3.74; optionable): online sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amzn.html
EARNINGS: 4-23-08
STATUS: Put. Double top spanning October to early January broke down in January, but AMZN tried to set up a bottom over 70, working in a 10 point range the past month. Thursday it turned down from near resistance at the 18 day EMA on rising, above average volume. Looking at the chart there is a big gap higher in late April 2007; it is going to fill that at some point and after this double top we think it is going to start working on that. Our initial goal is nowhere near so ambitious, but a move to that target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 13.157M Avg Volume: 9.915M
BUY POINT: $69.64 Volume=10M Target=$64.55 Stop=$70.84
POSITION: AQN PN - Apr. $70p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amzn.html
Play Date: 02/22/2008
UTX (United Technologies--$70.89; -1.16; optionable): Elevators, turbines, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/utx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-23-08
STATUS: Put. UTX broke below the 200 day SMA (74) to start the year, and after selling it spent the past month trying to get back through that level. It is failing. It has two distribution sessions this week, the latest on Thursday. Money flow is weak. Looks ready to run lower, and we don't need it to take out the January lows to makes us a nice 45%ish gain.
Volume: 4.581M Avg Volume: 5.193M
BUY POINT: $70.64 Volume=5.5M Target=$67.55 Stop=$72.22
POSITION: UTX PO - Apr. $75p (-66 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/utx.html
Play Date: 02/22/2008
XRAY (Dentsply--$39.27; -0.77; optionable): Dental instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-6-08
STATUS: Put. Failed to impress the market with its earnings. It was already down at the 200 day SMA (40.35) trying to recover from a mid-January dive lower. It recovered this key level but then slipped back through last Friday on strong volume. It worked laterally, but now it is heading back down from the December to January double top. A move to the target lands us a 52%ish gain.
Volume: 1.224M Avg Volume: 1.296M
BUY POINT: $39.04 Volume=1.4M Target=$37.00 Stop=$40.15
POSITION: XEQ PH - Apr. $40p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xray.html
Play Date: 02/22/2008
ZBRA (Zebra Technologies--$29.39; -0.61; optionable): Computer peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zbra.html
EARNINGS: 2-25-08
STATUS: Put. Nasty decline in December through mid-January, then a recovery into February. It failed, however, and slide lower, trying to consolidate the past couple of weeks with the market. Thursday it started lower again though volume was low. Money flow is weak, however, and it looks as if ZBRA wants to go test its prior lows and beyond. A move to the target lands a 60%ish gain.
Volume: 369.676K Avg Volume: 545.747K
BUY POINT: $29.12 Volume=700K Target=$26.05 Stop=$30.11
POSITION: ZBQ QF - May $30p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/zbra.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ATW: Forecast late February or first week of March.
BUCY: Running out of gas some at the old high but a nice break higher this week.
BVN: Forecast 2-28-08
CEDC: Researching date
CLF: Researching date
CPRT: Forecast first week of March
EOG: No split announcement but a great break higher and it is now testing that break, setting up the next entry point as it tests the 10 day EMA.
GG: Forecast 2-21-08
ISRG: Wildcard. Researching date.
JEC: Researching date
JOYG: Early March
MA: Forecast late April
MM: Researching date.
OTEX: No announcement 2-7-08.
STLD: Researching date
UPL: Forecast second week of February. Still moving higher though no split announcement yet.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 02/21/2008
DO (Diamond Offshore--$117.57; -1.20; optionable): Offshore drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/do.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-7-08
STATUS: Double bottom. Nice trade the past two sessions as DO moved up toward the key 120 level that marks the October peaks and the late January rebound peak. It formed an 8 week double bottom using the 200 day SMA as support for both legs. It may try to form a handle here, a lateral move just below the 'hump' in the middle of the pattern, but given the volume we want to be ready to move in if it makes a clean, high volume break higher.
Volume: 3.002M Avg Volume: 2.667M
BUY POINT: $120.22 Volume=4M Target=$138.95 Stop=$117.72
POSITION: DO FD - June $120c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/do.html
Play Date: 02/22/2008
SGR (Shaw Group--$63.05; +1.30; optionable): Heavy construction services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sgr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-9-08
STATUS: Cup. SGR is bouncing higher off the 200 day SMA, working on the right side of a 16 week cup base. Moved higher the past two sessions, closing over the 90 day SMA (62.52) Thursday. If it can pick up some more trade we will look at a partial position on a further move higher. Then it will likely form a handle, and when it breaks higher from that we can add positions. If it rallies up near 70 before doing so we can even take some interim gain before it forms the handle.
Volume: 1.65M Avg Volume: 1.803M
BUY POINT: $63.88 Volume=2.5M Target=$74.95 Stop=$61.54
POSITION: SGR GL - July $60c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sgr.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 02/20/2008
JOYG (Joy Global--$67.72; -0.45; optionable): Farm and construction machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/joyg.html
EARNINGS: 3-6-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Ran again Thursday, but could not hold the move. Still solid, and if it continues higher from here it is a buy. To recap: Back on the report as JOYG shows its best volume of the month as JOYG breaks higher from its 8 week base after a nice, quick test of the 18 day EMA this week. A base on base pattern that formed after the December breakout from a 6 month cup that broke out just to hit the January selling. Back on track and moving higher.
Volume: 2.494M Avg Volume: 1.998M
BUY POINT: $68.44 Volume=3M Target=$78.95 Stop=$64.91
POSITION: JQY GQ - July $65c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/joyg.html
Play Date: 02/19/2008
MON (Monsanto--$116.43; -2.62; optionable): Ag chemicals, biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mon.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-3-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Gapped higher Thursday but volume did not ramp and it could not hold the move, coming back to rest just over the 10 day EMA. Still in the pattern and still in contention for the breakout. To recap: MON continued rallying on through mid-January. It gapped on earnings but shortly thereafter it ran out of steam given the long run in 2000 preceding that move. It sold hard mid-month with the market, then held the 90 day SMA support, building the pattern using the 90 day SMA as support. Gapped higher to start last week, then moved laterally on low volume to form the handle. Gapped higher Tuesday on rising but still below average volume. Looking for a bit more trade as it continues the break higher.
Volume: 5.689M Avg Volume: 6.616M
BUY POINT: $120.21 Volume=7.5M Target=$137.95 Stop=$115.95
POSITION: MFP GD - July $120c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mon.html
Play Date: 02/16/2008
OTEX (Open Text--$32.70; -0.36; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/otex.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-7-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still a nice low volume pullback to the 18 day EMA as it continues the nice test of the breakout. Just looking for the bounce higher on rising trade to give us the entry. To recap: Nice break higher lat week on strong volume as OTEX moved off the 50 day EMA. It then started testing to end the week, setting up a new handle to its 14 week base (handle or test, very similar in this pattern). Likely to come back to the 10 day EMA (33) before it makes its bounce, but want to be ready.
Volume: 430.936K Avg Volume: 697.298K
BUY POINT: $34.31 Volume=1M Target=$39.95 Stop=$32.91
POSITION: QFT EG - May $35c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/otex.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/16/2008
CCC (Calgon Carbon--$17.19; -0.52; optionable): Air and water purification systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ccc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Low volume continues as CCC falls back to again test near support, tapping at the December high in the base on the low. After this test it is still ready to make the next break higher and continue the breakout move. To recap: Excellent surge out of a 9 week reverse head and shoulders base last Monday. Nice breakout then a quick test Thursday and Friday of the 10 day EMA (17.10), tapping that level on the Friday low and bouncing to close positive. Ready to move in as CCC resumes its breakout move.
Volume: 474.228K Avg Volume: 591.545K
BUY POINT: $17.91 Volume=700K Target=$21.45 Stop=$16.97
POSITION: CCC GW - July $17.50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ccc.html
Play Date: 02/20/2008
DRYS (Dryships--$85.65; +3.92; optionable): Bulk Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drys.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-14-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Gapped higher on solid trade, and closed right at the buy point, just over the 90 day SMA. If it can hold here it is in great position to make a nice big run for us. A buy as it continues higher. To recap: Made us some money on its last run when we sold it on its earnings announced that gapped it over the 90 day SMA (85.45). It could not hold that move, reversing that day. It has come back to test, tapping the 10 day EMA (78.44) on the Wednesday low and rebounding to recoup its losses. Lower volume test of near support. Now we look for it to surge back up past the 90 day SMA to give us the buy. Why that move? Because the 90 day stalled it the last three times it tried it, i.e. the last three sessions.
Volume: 6.069M Avg Volume: 4.528M
BUY POINT: $85.65 Volume=6.8M Target=$99.50 Stop=$82.33
POSITION: DQR FQ - June $85c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/drys.html
Play Date: 02/16/2008
GIGM (Gigamedia--$19.71; -0.04; optionable): software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gigm.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working on the handle, holding the 90 day SMA (19.27) Wednesday and a nice tight doji Thursday. Excellent set up for the breakout. Just being patient. To recap: Nice 15 week base has set up the breakout, laying the foundation for a new run after GIGM's strong rally from August to November. Spent the last week working laterally over the 90 day SMA after a high volume jump to start the week. May take a few more sessions to finish the base, but setting up well with money flow leading higher.
Volume: 363.305K Avg Volume: 1.023M
BUY POINT: $20.78 Volume=1.6M Target=$24.95 Stop=$19.33
POSITION: GBU GD - July $20c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gigm.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
