|
|
us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/23/2008
ADM (Archer Daniels Midland--$44.58; -0.84; optionable): Corn
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adm.html
EARNINGS: 5-7-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice set up here as it sold back on Friday to tap at the 18 day EMA (43.83) on lower, below average volume, then bouncing modestly to hold near support. This is forming the handle to a 7 week double bottom using the 50 day EMA and the 90 day SMA on the lows as support. Part of a much larger 22 month double bottom with handle, and this pattern is the last part of that larger base. Large base, large run on the breakout. Part of the corn craze (a.k.a. ethanol insanity), so there is a continuing demand for its products. After this pullback looking for a new strong breakout to give us the entry point.
Volume: 6.133M Avg Volume: 6.679M
BUY POINT: $46.15 Volume=10M Target=$53.95 Stop=$43.94
POSITION: ADM FI - June $45c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/adm.html
Play Date: 02/23/2008
ECA (Encana Corp.--$70.96; +0.81; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eca.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-14-08
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. One of the more common bases setting up in this up and down market. ECA is working on a nice tight handle to its 14 week base, using the 10 day EMA as support for the lows; it reaches down intraday to tap them then recovers to the close. Strong volume on the upside sessions shows continued accumulation. After running to a new high in early November it needed a new base to rest and set the foundation for the next run higher. This has done that with a couple of lows, the second that deep test in January. Just going to wait and let it show us the strong breakout move to give us our entry point.
Volume: 3.23M Avg Volume: 2.552M
BUY POINT: $71.84 Volume=3.8M Target=$85.95 Stop=$69.11
POSITION: ECA GN - Jujly $70c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/eca.html
Play Date: 02/23/2008
RIG (Transocean--$137.96; -0.22; optionable): Offshore oil and gas drilling services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rig.html
EARNINGS: 5-7-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Surged higher Wednesday on strong volume, breaking over the 'hump' in its 8 week double bottom base. It then started to test, coming back modestly Thursday and Friday, tapping at support at 135 on the Friday low before rebounding to close. Nice lower volume as it tests. May come back and snug up a bit more near 135 before continuing, but then looking for a nice strong volume as it renews its breakout.
Volume: 6.696M Avg Volume: 8.596M
BUY POINT: $140.48 Volume=11M Target=$161.85 Stop=$135.11
POSITION: RIG EH - May $140c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rig.html
Play Date: 02/23/2008
TKC (Turkcell--$24.62; +0.36; optionable): Turkish wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tkc.html
EARNINGS: 2-27-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. It has been awhile but TKC is setting up for us once more. Earnings are coming this week, and we like how TKC is setting up ahead of those. It has formed a double bottom with handle just over the 200 day SMA, using that key level as support for the two bottoms. Nice surge up to the 90 day SMA (24.87) two weeks back and then a lateral, low volume move to form the handle, shaking out some more sellers. Big volume spike Thursday; that is a 'get ready' spike, telling us to prepare for the breakout. Want to see it make the move to start the play, but if it has not before earnings we will take a chance with some positions on Tuesday 2-27.
Volume: 825.862K Avg Volume: 1.474M
BUY POINT: $25.04 Volume=2.2M Target=$29.95 Stop=$23.45
POSITION: TKC GE - July $25c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tkc.html
Play Date: 02/23/2008
TRA (Terra Industries--$47.75; -0.40; optionable): Agricultural chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tra.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-7-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. After a breakout and run higher starting last October, TRA has formed the current 8 week pattern in the market up and down selling, using the 90 day SMA as support for the two bottoms. Nice surge on volume this month, particularly the start of last week, and then a nice lower, below average volume test of the 10 day EMA to end the week. Indeed, Friday it tapped the 10 day on the low (46.40) and rebounded for a modest lost. May take another day or two to finish the handle, but like this set up from this solid leader in a solid sector.
Volume: 3.487M Avg Volume: 3.829M
BUY POINT: $50.65 Volume=5.7M Target=$60.85 Stop=$47.10
POSITION: TRA FJ - June $50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tra.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/23/2008
ALB (Albemarle Corp.--$38.20; -1.05; optionable): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/alb.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-28-08
STATUS: Put. ALB has just formed the right shoulder to a large 8 month head and shoulders top. It plunged lower in January, recovering off that low and into this month, coming up just under the 200 day SMA (40.86) the past week. It never made it that high before rolling over. Friday it undercut the 50 day EMA (39.06) on the strongest volume in two weeks. It managed to bounce off some support at 38. Looking for it to undercut that again on continued solid trade to give us the entry point. A move to the target lands us a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 1.584M Avg Volume: 1.122M
BUY POINT: $37.74 Volume=1.2M Target=$34.72 Stop=$38.69
POSITION: ALB PH - Apr. $40p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/alb.html
Continuing plays: Watching these for moves this week.
DO
GIGM
SGR
SVNT
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
