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trade stock, top stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/25/2008
DE (Deere & Co.--$88.99; +1.82; optionable): Farm and construction machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/de.html
EARNINGS: 5-14-08
STATUS: Ascending base. Volume starting to pick up on the upside after DE bounced off the 90 day SMA (83) and moved through the 50 day EMA (85), tested, and then started back up. A rather ragged 11 week base, but as with the market, it has made higher lows and is ready to try the early February high (90.49). A break over that level on continued improving volume is a buy.
Volume: 54.523M Avg Volume: 5.5M
BUY POINT: $90.65 Volume=8.2M Target=$103.95 Stop=$85.91
POSITION: DE FR - June $90c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/de.html
Play Date: 02/25/2008
FCSX (FCStone Group--$46.91; +3.01; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcsx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-14-08
STATUS: Cup. FCSX got some strong, above average volume and surged off the 90 day SMA Monday, starting to build the right side of a 6 week base. Not quite a year old, FCSX has shown it can be a real powerhouse. After this base it is set up well and ready to take some positions as it continues this move higher toward a new high, and if it tests and forms some sort of handle, we can use that as an entry point for additional positions.
Volume: 919.939K Avg Volume: 586.234K
BUY POINT: $47.21 Volume=600K Target=$54.95 Stop=$44.77
POSITION: QGD GI - July $45c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fcsx.html
Play Date: 02/25/2008
FCX (Freeport McMoran--$100.56; +1.20; optionable): Copper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-23-08
STATUS: Double bottom. Gapped higher last week, clearing the 50 day EMA (94.50) and moving over the 90 day SMA (99.10) Thursday. It is testing, moving laterally over that level on the close after testing lower intraday and recovering. After this test we are looking for this leader in the 2007 rally to resume the break higher, and that is when we move into positions.
Volume: 10.125M Avg Volume: 12.143M
BUY POINT: $102.95 Volume=15M Target=$118.95 Stop=$97.88
POSITION: FCX ET - May $100c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fcx.html
Play Date: 02/25/2008
HAL (Halliburton--$37.09; +0.93; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hal.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-28-08
STATUS: Double bottom. HAL is working on an 18 week base; rather skewed and violent, but double bottoms are the 'scare them out' type of bases versus the slow moving 'grind them out' ones. Big plunge to start the year and form the second leg, rebounding up to mid-February where it ran into the 200 day SMA (36.30) where it stalled. It did not fall, however, just moved laterally over the 200 day on lower volume and then broke higher Monday and clearing the recent high on strong, above average volume, the best in a month. Like that money surge and ready to move in as HAL continues its break higher.
Volume: 16.831M Avg Volume: 13.2M
BUY POINT: $37.55 Volume=15M Target=$42.95 Stop=$36.11
POSITION: HAL GT - July $37.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hal.html
Play Date: 02/25/2008
USO (United States Oil Fund ETF--$78.73; +0.13; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uso.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Test breakout. Boone Pickens may be shorting oil, but this certainly is a technical breakout from a 13 week trading range. It looked as if oil was going to break lower to start February, but it found its footing again and surged up to the top of the range, gapping out of the pattern last Tuesday. It has since worked laterally, resting and consolidating the move but not giving any of it up. That shows its staying power, and we are just waiting for a new break higher on this move to enter the play.
Volume: 2.598M Avg Volume: 3.65M
BUY POINT: $79.48 Volume=4.5M Target=$91.45 Stop=$76.55
POSITION: UNA GA - July $79c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/uso.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/23/2008
ADM (Archer Daniels Midland--$44.83; +0.25; optionable): Corn
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adm.html
EARNINGS: 5-7-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Continues setting up its base, testing back the past couple of sessions on low volume, ready to make a higher low and a new break higher. Very solid. To recap: Nice set up here as it sold back on Friday to tap at the 18 day EMA (43.83) on lower, below average volume, then bouncing modestly to hold near support. This is forming the handle to a 7 week double bottom using the 50 day EMA and the 90 day SMA on the lows as support. Part of a much larger 22 month double bottom with handle, and this pattern is the last part of that larger base. Large base, large run on the breakout. Part of the corn craze (a.k.a. ethanol insanity), so there is a continuing demand for its products. After this pullback looking for a new strong breakout to give us the entry point.
Volume: 5.204M Avg Volume: 6.679M
BUY POINT: $46.15 Volume=10M Target=$53.95 Stop=$43.94
POSITION: ADM FI - June $45c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/adm.html
Play Date: 02/16/2008
GIGM (Gigamedia--$20.44; +0.77; optionable): Online gaming software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gigm.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume edged higher but was still too low, but GIGM made a nice price break higher Monday and looks ready to try that breakout. Just needs some volume as it does. To recap: Nice 15 week base has set up the breakout, laying the foundation for a new run after GIGM's strong rally from August to November. Spent the last week working laterally over the 90 day SMA after a high volume jump to start the week. May take a few more sessions to finish the base, but setting up well with money flow leading higher.
Volume: 628.189K Avg Volume: 1.002M
BUY POINT: $20.78 Volume=1.6M Target=$24.95 Stop=$19.33
POSITION: GBU GD - July $20c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gigm.html
Play Date: 02/23/2008
RIG (Transocean--$140.65; +2.69; optionable): Offshore oil and gas drilling services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rig.html
EARNINGS: 5-7-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Started moving higher after a short handle attempt, moving up on rising but just average trade. If it can continue with this kind of trade, however, that is not bad as it enjoyed solid volume last week as it broke higher. That would make it a buy on a further move on solid trade. To recap: Surged higher Wednesday on strong volume, breaking over the 'hump' in its 8 week double bottom base. It then started to test, coming back modestly Thursday and Friday, tapping at support at 135 on the Friday low before rebounding to close. Nice lower volume as it tests. May come back and snug up a bit more near 135 before continuing, but then looking for a nice strong volume as it renews its breakout.
Volume: 7.414M Avg Volume: 8.596M
BUY POINT: New: On a continued move higher on rising trade (orig. $140.48) Volume=11M Target=$161.85 Stop=$135.11
POSITION: RIG EH - May $140c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rig.html
Play Date: 02/23/2008
TKC (Turkcell--$24.81; +0.19; optionable): Turkish wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tkc.html
EARNINGS: 2-27-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still bumping against the 90 day SMA but trade backed off Monday. Very nice pattern setting up and just waiting for a break higher on a jump in volume. To recap: It has been awhile but TKC is setting up for us once more. Earnings are coming this week, and we like how TKC is setting up ahead of those. It has formed a double bottom with handle just over the 200 day SMA, using that key level as support for the two bottoms. Nice surge up to the 90 day SMA (24.87) two weeks back and then a lateral, low volume move to form the handle, shaking out some more sellers. Big volume spike Thursday; that is a 'get ready' spike, telling us to prepare for the breakout. Want to see it make the move to start the play, but if it has not before earnings we will take a chance with some positions on Tuesday 2-27.
Volume: 969.444K Avg Volume: 1.474M
BUY POINT: $25.04 Volume=2.2M Target=$29.95 Stop=$23.45
POSITION: TKC GE - July $25c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tkc.html
Play Date: 02/13/2008
YTEC (Yucheng Technologies--$17.74; +0.64; optionable): Intellectual technology for banking industry in China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/ytec.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume moved up above average for the first time in two weeks as YTEC tested the 18 day EMA (16.66) on the low and then rebounded for a nice gain. Now it looks ready to make the move we want to see. To recap: Big volume on the surge higher la week back capped a solid run off the second leg of its 14 week double bottom base. Formed using the 50 day EMA (13.09) as the support for the legs. Then a lateral move the past week on lower volume, testing the break higher and setting up the next move as the 10 day EMA (16.79) rises to meet it. Strong money flow is leading higher. May take another 2 to 3 sessions, but when it goes it is going to go and we need to be ready.
Volume: 253.055K Avg Volume: 200K
BUY POINT: $18.48 Volume=700K Target=$23.55 Stop=$17.19
POSITION: TXE DW - Apr. $17.50c (60 delta) or TXE GW - July $17.50c (no OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ytec.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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