|
|
yahoo stock, us stock market
Begin Part 2 of 2
Weekly Economic Calendar (All times Eastern). The figures are the consensus expectations, not ours.
2-28-02
Initial Claims, 2/23 (8:30): 378K actual versus 385K expected and 361K prior (revised from 383K).
GDP, preliminary Q4 (8:30): 1.4% actual versus 0.9% expected and 0.2% prior.
Chain Deflator, Q4 (8:30): -0.3% actual versus -0.3% expected and -0.3% prior.
Chicago PMI, February (10:00): 53.1 actual versus 47.0 expected and 45.1 prior.
Help-Wanted Index, January (10:00): 47 actual versus 46 expected and 46 prior.
3-01-02
Truck Sales, February: 7.1M versus 7.1M prior.
Auto Sales, February: 5.3M versus 5.3M prior.
Personal Spending, January (8:30): 0.4% versus -0.2% prior.
Personal Income, January (8:30): 0.1% versus 0.4% prior.
Mich Sentiment-Rev., February (9:45): 91.0 versus 90.9 prior.
ISM Index, February (10:00): 51.0 versus 49.9 prior.
Construction Spending, January (10:00): 0.1% versus 0.2% prior.
SUBSCRIBER QUESTIONS
Q: Where do you get your information on the Put/Call Ratio (CBOE)?
A: The CBOE website contains a summary of daily activity. It can be found at www.cboe.com under the 'Market Data' heading.
Q: [There has been an increased] noise level very recently about US troops moving into Iraq and Turkey. I would really like to hear your take on market reactions if/when there is an escalation on the part of US. It seems imminent that this is the situation. I'd like to be better prepared to know how to prepare and respond for such an event!
A: The rumors have been flying, and have struck two times when the indexes were having decent rallies. Short sellers have good timing. Anyway, if we do send troops into Iraq there will be uncertainty. Uncertainty about a new campaign while another is still ongoing, uncertainty about reprisal attempts, uncertainty about the outcome. The stock market hates uncertainty and they would most likely suffer selling as investors take money off the table and reallocate into some gold and cash. Gold stocks may perform a bit better at first and defense stocks as well. In the 1990 invasion of Kuwait gold spiked higher but then pulled back rather quickly. How fast a recovery comes depends upon the campaign's success. As we saw in 1991 and in 2001, if the success is apparent, the stock market starts to price that in.
TEAM TRADES
BRCM: One of the many techs that rolled over Wednesday and continued today. We were looking at a buy point at 31.90. After testing 33.25 twice early in the session on the early rally it started to roll over with the index. Now an earlier put play hit the target at 32. The stock then hit our next buy point at 31.90, running down fast to 31.50. It bounced after the big drop as most stocks and indexes do, back up to 32 (32 was a point of some support, and that is why the other put play had that as a target). It failed to move over that level and we entered downside positions at 31.98. The May 40 puts were trading 10 by 10.20. We slid a limit order in at 10.20 and that was good enough. The stock then started its descent, hitting 31 and bouncing back up, then heading to the next level, down to 30. Another bounce and then it sold again. It did not make it down to 30 again, holding at 30.50. The options ended the session at 10.80 by 11.
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information. A "prior high" refers to the high at the start of a base.
For conserving space on listings of stop losses, the symbol (7%) indicates that the stop is 7% below the buy point.
Good movers: LNY broke out on huge volume! Remains a buy on the breakout up to 25.20. MVL hit the buy point in the test of the breakout, and on strong volume! Puts: BRCD, QLGC, BRCM. Short: TIER
Targets hit Wednesday: TIER (16, short); BRCM (32; put)
Stop Advisory: ESST (20.50), BPRX (17.75)
Stocks/Indexes from the Wednesday report:
RKY: Only edged higher (+$0.27) despite stronger volume; didn't add much to yesterday's breakout.
JH: Fell through the 18 day MVA on stronger volume. Were looking for a bounce back up from that support after the strong breakout earlier this month.
QQQ: Hit the buy point (33.90) for the put play. Holding positions and looking for more. Volume higher on the move down.
OEX: Still holding above support and below resistance (put play).
QLGC: Lost $1.85 today, selling on stronger volume.
Continued plays:
Covered call:
BLL: Still holding above the upper channel line on huge volume. Not the point to enter new positions, but refusing to head lower. The high volume at this high level may indicate some churning before it heads lower, but it has been very stingy with its gains. Continue to look for the drop to 40-38.
FRED: Oh, nice. The stock dropped to a low of 30.20, below the 18 day MVA target for the covered call play. It closed, holding just above that support, and that may be as low as it will get since volume remained well below average. For those still holding the calls, it is a good place to buy them back if that wasn't done on that low today.
Other continued plays:
ESST: Back over the 50 day MVA in a strong move Thursday (2-16 play). The stock closed just below the 50 day MVA simple; it can pull back for a test of the 50 day MVA (exponential), giving a better exit point. There is a chance it can fall back through that support since the 50 day simple is right at the down trendline. If it does, an even better place to get out, or, to keep watching for a drop below 18.
IXX: A packaging stock that is making a move off the 18 day MVA on decent volume. Has made a few bounces from that support since mid-January.
NBTY: Still tightening up nicely in the ascending wedge, and on low volume.
NYCB: Breaking higher on strong volume in the cup base, trying for a move to 31.65 at the highs in the base.
ODP: An alert was inadvertently sent out on ODP today. It did not hit the buy point (19.50) but remains in the flying plateau.
SNS: Falling back pretty abruptly Thursday. Volume still falling, so can hold at 14, or the lower 18 day MVA on the pullback (13.50).
STEC: Getting ready for another bounce; threw a volume spike Wednesday and showed very low volume on a tap at support today. It has made 2 bounces from this 18 day MVA support level since late January.
SUBSCRIBER CHOICE:
CCK (Crown Cork & Seal--$5.73; -0.21; optionable): Packaging
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cck.html
STATUS: Packaging has been a decent sector in the recent market. CCK is a stock in the group that is in quite a large base (just over 5 years) but is off the lows from December that were just under a dollar. From there the stock has trended up nicely, this month breaking out of a two-week wedging/pennant consolidation it developed at the top of the run. It broke out Tuesday on above average volume, but pulled back right away, though showing the proper price/volume action while doing so, lower volume on lower prices. Thursday the stock held above the highs in that recent pattern, tapping the 10 day MVA on the low of 5.65. If it holds that support it can launch another upside move after this test of the breakout. It has already had three bounces from the 18 day MVA, however, after crossing back over the 200 day MVA in early January, so will be ready for a deeper pullback after another one to two bounces up. Volume was lower at 1.3 million (avg. 2 million). Money flow looks good, and relative strength is high. New buy point for aggressive positions is 6 on above average volume for with stock and/or July $5 calls (CCK GA).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cck.html
Best Plays:
1) HRB: Another covered call sale play.
2) EFFI: Selling and looks ready to break down.
3) PSFT: Heading down.
New:
Covered Call
HRB (H&R Block--$50.45; +0.20; optionable): Diversified Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hrb.html
STATUS: HRB is a continuing play that has had a good run after bouncing from the 50 day MVA mid-January. It has put in a couple of bounces from the 18 day MVA since, and with the recent action looks ready to make another pullback in that direction (the support is at 48.23 currently). HRB showed strong volume Thursday, up to 1.8 million; avg. 1 million), and the stock did what we call churning; that is, it couldn't make much of a move on the higher volume. If a line is drawn connecting the November, December and January highs, one can see that the stock has moved above that upper channel line. Once that happens, a move back down can have some strength to it. For now we are looking for the pullback to the 48 range, at the level of the early February highs.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 50 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: April $45 calls to sell (HRB DI, selling at the close for $6.40. For a 2-point move, the 0.88 delta can reduce the value to around $4.60).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/hrb.html
Update:
RMCI (Right Mgmt--$25.04; -0.26; optionable): Diversified Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rmic.html
STATUS: RMCI was on as a subscriber's choice recently, and is forming up nicely in the 14-week cup, pulling back on low volume in a handle (245,100; avg. 335,000). The stock tapped near the 10 day MVA on the low of 24.64 (the support is at 24.19), showing another loose doji on the slight loss. We look for RMCI to complete the pullback to the 10 day MVA, which for now is right at the early February high, then bounce back up for a breakout from this new pattern. We like the high money flow and relative strength. Target: 31
BUY POINT: Breakout: 26.12 on volume of 503,000 or higher. Stop advisory (7%): 24.29
POSITION: Stock and/or July $20 calls to buy (UHU GD).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/rmci.html
Puts:
EFII (Electronics For Imaging--$19.40; -0.67; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/efii.html
STATUS: In a head and shoulders type pattern of about 4.5-months (started mid-October in the first "shoulder", which isn't that well-formed but has the distinctive peak in early November that is close to the recent highs in February in the right shoulder (at the 21 level). Peak in the head of the pattern is in January at 25.25. We are looking for a breakdown at the neck, at 19, for a move down to 13 to complete the pattern. Wednesday EFII tried to break back over its 50 day MVA (20.71) but failed, breaking below the 18 day MVA today (20.04) on two days of above average volume (645,200 Thursday; avg. 534,000).
BUY POINT: Breakdown: 18.75 on continued rising volume.
POSITION: July $50 puts to buy (EFX SX).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/efii.html
PSFT (Peoplesoft--$29.07; -2.77; optionable): Application Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psft.html
STATUS: PSFT broke below the 50 day MVA mid-January and hasn't moved back over it since. It tried to move up to it earlier this month but the 18 day MVA thrust it back down again. Wednesday that stock ran back over that resistance and actually hit the 50 day MVA but by the end of the day the chart showed a tombstone doji. The downside move was confirmed Thursday as the stock sold back on a strong surge in volume (23 million; avg. 8 million). Looking for continued selling, watching the 27.50 level for potential support on the way down. Target: 22.50, at the mid-October low.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 28.65 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: July $32.50 puts to buy (PQO SZ).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/psft.html
PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: DGX, FRX, LLL, MIK, BMET, APPB, IGT.
BMET ($30.56; -0.46): Broke the 50 day MVA on rising volume (up to average levels, strong). It has an August/January up trendline from which it can find support; on the intraday low Wednesday the stock tapped then bounced from that level. Need a quick move back over the 50 day or it is a sell.
LLL ($109.85; -2.27): Selling on stronger volume Thursday, still holding support at the 10 day MVA. Looking for a break there and drop to the 18 day MVA for the covered call play.
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: BBBY, SRCL
BBBY ($33.40; -0.63): Still holding at the 50 day MVA in the flat base though it fell back through the 18 day MVA on stronger volume. May be able to hold if we get a slow Friday, but not good price/volume action.
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CSCO, SEBL, EMLX, BRCM, HDI, BRCD, BUD, AMGN, WMT, ORCL, HB, NOC
SEBL ($27.76; -2.59): Another sell-off and a sell if it breaks the support at the February low (27.59). Doesn't look promising after this heavy selling. Can fall to 25 before finding lower support if it does break through.
HB ($59.99; -0.06): Holding up in the pennant pattern with a tight hammer doji Thursday. Volume was back below average so we are keeping watch for the move up! Buy point for aggressive positions is 60.50; breakout is 61.50 for possible positions with stock and/or June $50 calls to buy (HB FJ).
EMLX ($32.46; -1.06): Slowed the selling on a bounce back from the 200 day MVA. Volume very strong so may bounce back higher tomorrow for better exit points.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
yahoo stock
us stock market
|
