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stock split, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 02/26/2008
ANSS (Ansys--$38.86; +2.01; optionable): Technical software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anss.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-21-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Gapped higher on its earnings, forming the right side of its 8 week base that formed using the 200 day SMA as support. After that gap higher on earnings it came back to test the 50 day EMA on lower volume, then surged higher Tuesday on a strong shot above average trade. Money flow is surging higher and ANSS looks ready to continue the move.
Volume: 1.227M Avg Volume: 701.656K
BUY POINT: $39.08 Volume=900K Target=$44.95 Stop=$37.68
POSITION: QUS GH - July $40c (54 delta, 122 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/anss.html
Play Date: 02/26/2008
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$30.98; +1.38; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
EARNINGS: 3-6-08
STATUS: Ascending base. Strong volume Tuesday as URBN cleared a 10 week base that formed with a series of higher lows along the 50 day EMA. Nice break to a 2 year high and we are looking to move in as this leading retailer continues to enjoy climb higher.
Volume: 6.148M Avg Volume: 3.838M
BUY POINT: $31.24 Volume=3.9M Target=$37.48 Stop=$29.48
POSITION: URQ FF - June $30c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/urbn.html
New Leader Play:
Play Date: 02/26/2008
FSTR (L.B. Foster--$46.46; +1.72; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fstr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-31-08
STATUS: Double bottom. Nicely formed 8 week base that formed using the 200 day SMA as support. Improving volume as it bounced off of that support and moved up to the 'hump' in the pattern at 46.40. FSTR rallied to challenge that level Tuesday. Nice set up and looking to move in as FSTR continues the break higher.
Volume: 255.837K Avg Volume: 242.689K
BUY POINT: $47.11 Volume=350K Target=$56.55 Stop=$45.08
POSITION: FQD EI - May $45c (61 delta, 115 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fstr.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ADM: Researching date
ATW: Forecast late February or first week of March.
BUCY: Continuing its trend up the 10 day EMA
BVN: Forecast 2-28-08
CEDC: Researching date
CLF: Researching date
CPRT: Forecast first week of March
EAC: Surging nicely higher for us.
ECA: Nice strong volume as ECA makes the breakout
ISRG: Wildcard. Researching date.
JEC: Researching date
JOYG: Early March
MA: Forecast late April
MM: Researching date.
OTEX: No announcement 2-7-08.
RIG: Nice break higher.
TKC: Excellent breakout move
STLD: Researching date
UPL: Forecast second week of February. Still moving higher though no split announcement yet.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 02/26/2008
AMX (America Movil--$64.18; +1.12; optionable): Latin American wireless
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-6-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Strong volume Tuesday as AMX broke higher from its 11 week base formed at the tail end of an 8 month base. A big mover from 2005 to 2007, it needed this base to consolidate the gains and set up the foundation for the next move higher. Looking to take some positions as AMX continues this break higher.
Volume: 9.287M Avg Volume: 6.683M
BUY POINT: $64.55 Volume=7.5M Target=$74.25 Stop=$62.11
POSITION: AMX HN - Aug. $65c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amx.html
Play Date: 02/25/2008
FCX (Freeport McMoran--$100.32; -0.24; optionable): Copper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-23-08
STATUS: Double bottom. Still working laterally over the 90 day SMA on continued low, below average volume. Still excellent action setting it up for the continued move higher. To recap: Gapped higher last week, clearing the 50 day EMA (94.50) and moving over the 90 day SMA (99.10) Thursday. It is testing, moving laterally over that level on the close after testing lower intraday and recovering. After this test we are looking for this leader in the 2007 rally to resume the break higher, and that is when we move into positions.
Volume: 9.71M Avg Volume: 12.143M
BUY POINT: $102.95 Volume=15M Target=$118.95 Stop=$97.88
POSITION: FCX ET - May $100c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fcx.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 02/23/2008
ADM (Archer Daniels Midland--$45.92; +1.09; optionable): Corn
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adm.html
EARNINGS: 5-7-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Bounced up off the 10 day EMA Tuesday, moving toward the breakout from its base. Needs a bit more volume, however. To recap: Nice set up here as it sold back on Friday to tap at the 18 day EMA (43.83) on lower, below average volume, then bouncing modestly to hold near support. This is forming the handle to a 7 week double bottom using the 50 day EMA and the 90 day SMA on the lows as support. Part of a much larger 22 month double bottom with handle, and this pattern is the last part of that larger base. Large base, large run on the breakout. Part of the corn craze (a.k.a. ethanol insanity), so there is a continuing demand for its products. After this pullback looking for a new strong breakout to give us the entry point.
Volume: 4.615M Avg Volume: 6.726M
BUY POINT: $46.15 Volume=10M Target=$53.95 Stop=$43.94
POSITION: ADM FI - June $45c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/adm.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/25/2008
DE (Deere & Co.--$87.46; -1.53; optionable): Farm and construction machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/de.html
EARNINGS: 5-14-08
STATUS: Ascending base. Faded back to the 50 day SMA on Tuesday, but DE still remains in good shape to break higher still, and this breather actually gives it a better ramp to make the run from. Just looking for the next break higher to take positions. To recap: Volume starting to pick up on the upside after DE bounced off the 90 day SMA (83) and moved through the 50 day EMA (85), tested, and then started back up. A rather ragged 11 week base, but as with the market, it has made higher lows and is ready to try the early February high (90.49). A break over that level on continued improving volume is a buy.
Volume: 4.661M Avg Volume: 5.552M
BUY POINT: $90.65 Volume=8.2M Target=$103.95 Stop=$85.91
POSITION: DE FR - June $90c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/de.html
Play Date: 02/25/2008
HAL (Halliburton--$37.56; +0.47; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hal.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-28-08
STATUS: Double bottom. Moved higher Tuesday right up to the buy point with lower but still above average volume. Looking for it to continues this move and give us the buy point. To recap: HAL is working on an 18 week base; rather skewed and violent, but double bottoms are the 'scare them out' type of bases versus the slow moving 'grind them out' ones. Big plunge to start the year and form the second leg, rebounding up to mid-February where it ran into the 200 day SMA (36.30) where it stalled. It did not fall, however, just moved laterally over the 200 day on lower volume and then broke higher Monday and clearing the recent high on strong, above average volume, the best in a month. Like that money surge and ready to move in as HAL continues its break higher.
Volume: 15.212M Avg Volume: 13.158M
BUY POINT: $37.55 Volume=15M Target=$42.95 Stop=$36.11
POSITION: HAL GT - July $37.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hal.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/16/2008
CCC (Calgon Carbon--$18.01; +0.06; optionable): Air and water purification systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ccc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. A bit volatile of late, but a nice hold at the 10 day EMA, showing a doji. Very good pullback and it looks ready to make the break. To recap: Excellent surge out of a 9 week reverse head and shoulders base last Monday. Nice breakout then a quick test Thursday and Friday of the 10 day EMA (17.51), tapping that level on the Friday low and bouncing to close positive. Ready to move in as CCC resumes its breakout move.
Volume: 805.315K Avg Volume: 607.577K
BUY POINT: New: On a continuing move early this week (orig. $17.91) Volume=700K Target=$21.45 Stop=$16.97
POSITION: CCC GW - July $17.50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ccc.html
Play Date: 02/16/2008
GIGM (Gigamedia--$20.51; +0.07; optionable): Online gaming software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gigm.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Showed some life Tuesday, flirting with the buy point Tuesday but backing off as volume was still so-so. Looks ready to move and just needs some volume with it as it does. To recap: Nice 15 week base has set up the breakout, laying the foundation for a new run after GIGM's strong rally from August to November. Spent the last week working laterally over the 90 day SMA after a high volume jump to start the week. May take a few more sessions to finish the base, but setting up well with money flow leading higher.
Volume: 621.717K Avg Volume: 1.006M
BUY POINT: $20.78 Volume=1.6M Target=$24.95 Stop=$19.33
POSITION: GBU GD - July $20c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gigm.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock split
stock recommendation
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