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trend trading stock, trading system
Begin part 2 of 3
NOTE: Part 2 precedes part 1 this evening.
CONTINUING PLAYS TABLE
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LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri =Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACI 02/19 Test 18 54.10 +1.18 53.88 63.95 4.2M 5.5M 52.11
Current. Started lower but then bounced higher to close with a gain, albeit one on lower, below average volume. Continues to work laterally in a 2 week range, consolidating and setting up the next break higher over 55.
ADM 02/23 DB hdl 46.47 +1.24 46.68 53.95 6.5M 10M 44.38
Entered today. Nice solid break higher on a solid surge in volume even though trade remained below average. It was enough to go ahead and start some positions.
AGU 02/27 Test BO 76.32 +2.44 71.11 81.95 2.9M 5M 70.22
Buy Not Hit. Never made the test, just galloping on up again.
AGU 02/19 DB hdl 76.32 +2.44 69.15 79.88 2.9M 4M 71.28
Current.
AKS 02/19 DB hdl 54.38 +0.46 49.55 58.95 2.1M 4M 52.45
Current. Taking a breather after a nice break higher to a new high early in the week. Like how it is not giving any ground as it takes a break.
AMX 02/26 Rev HS 62.97 -1.20 64.55 74.25 5.7M 7.5M 62.11
Buy Not Issued. After trying but failing to continue the move Wednesday, AMX faded Thursday. Low, low volume, so just a test back from the run to give it a better ramp to the breakout.
ANSS 02/26 Cup hdl 38.42 -0.14 39.08 44.95 749K 900K 37.68
Buy Not Issued. Bounced some but not the same volume in the prior sessions and it faded back modestly, basically closing flat. A little bit more handle formation is just fine.
ATW 02/13 Test 50 98.35 +1.89 91.18 104.65 453K 700K 96.32
Current. Moving laterally but not giving up any ground as it takes a breather. Nice low volume. Excellent action.
BTU 02/13 Dbl btm 59.14 +1.76 59.10 67.95 4.3M 7M 57.88
Current. Consolidating coal, working laterally over the 18 day EMA in a narrow range spanning 57 to 60. Solid and just looking for the next break higher.
BVN 01/31 PreAnn 77.29 +2.76 70.12 79.95 948K 875K 74.94
Current. Gapped higher on strong volume, accelerating its run higher above the 10 day EMA. Buena.
CCC 02/16 Test BO 16.99 -0.22 17.91 21.45 846K 700K 16.97
Buy Not Issued.
CCC 01/26 Asc Bse 16.99 -0.22 16.89 20.55 846K 1.1M 16.97
Current. Volatile session, closing in the lower rung of the range, just over the December peaks at the top of the base. It needs to hold the line here after something of a double top this month.
CEDC 01/26 PreAnn 59.87 -2.49 56.05 63.95 1.3M 650K 58.11
Current. Gapped lower, giving back the massive Tuesday gain, but then rebounded to cut the losses. Still good shape to move higher as earnings were fine.
CHT 01/22 Test BO 24.48 -0.42 21.89 25.95 1.7M 1.2M 23.98
Current. Second day of rest after a strong gap to start the week. Not a bad pullback at all as it refuses to give up much ground.
CMED 02/27 Test BO 54.51 -0.95 56.12 64.55 1.2M 850K 53.48
Buy Not Issued. Surged then came back for a loss, closing above the 10 day EMA, however. Still solid, but want it to hold here and continue its move as a show of strength and something we can buy into.
CMED 02/04 Test BO 54.51 -0.95 51.68 59.45 1.2M 935K 52.55
Current.
COIN 02/27 Test BO 12.19 -0.79 13.32 16.00 780K 2M 12.39
Buy Not Hit. Still working back to the rising 10 day EMA (11.77), coming up to meet it. Won't be long before it takes off again on rising volume.
CSX 02/20 DB hdl 50.44 -0.85 51.22 59.39 3.5M 9M 50.32
Current. Great Monday and Tuesday moves, then gave it all back Wednesday and Thursday. Difference: very low trade on the downside. Held the 10 day EMA on the close and with this low volume there was no real dumping. Thus it is setting up nicely to get back into the game.
DBC 02/12 Asc Bse 36.70 +0.35 33.83 37.95 1.5M 900K 35.88
Current. Commodities keep climbing as the dollar keeps falling and thus DBC is rising. Ever-increasing volume as it moves up.
DE 02/25 Asc Bse 86.97 +0.73 90.65 103.95 4M 8.2M 85.91
Buy Not Hit. Still waiting for it to run like a Deere off the 50 day EMA where it tested on the Thursday low.
DO 02/21 Dbl btm 122.99 +0.97 123.76 138.95 1.5M 4M 119.89
Current. After the big break higher Tuesday DO is working laterally, forming a nice handle. That will likely give a new break higher and when it moves over 124.85 on volume it is a buy again.
DRYS 02/20 Rev HS 78.16 -2.55 86.48 99.50 2.8M 6.8M 83.45
Current. Hanging on at the 18 day EMA on low volume Thursday. Needs to ship out to the upside from this test of support.
EAC 02/23 DB hdl 37.48 +0.64 37.00 42.95 649K 875K 36.22
Current. Moving higher on rising, average volume as EAC continues its breakout run.
ECA 02/23 DB hdl 78.12 +3.03 73.15 86.88 5.7M 3.8M 76.38
Current. Ole. Huge volume impressive price move as ECA adds to its gains, clearing the November peak.
FCSX 02/25 DB hdl 48.61 -0.34 48.91 54.95 577K 600K 46.68
Entered today. Tested back to support at 47.50 and bounced after that strong surge so we moved into a few positions and we will look at some more as it continues to set up.
FCX 02/25 Dbl btm 106.57 +2.95 104.32 119.95 11M 15M 103.11
Current. Another solid upside session even with some lower volume, rallying on the Wednesday momentum. Nice upside break in progress.
FMX 02/07 Rev HS 42.18 -0.77 39.86 45.85 897K 1.9M 41.48
Current. Testing back to the 10 day EMA on the close, maintaining its uptrend as it takes a breather on low volume.
FSTR 02/26 Dbl btm 43.65 -2.39 47.11 56.55 264K 350K 45.08
Buy Not Issued. Sold off on some higher volume Thursday, managing to land close to the 50 day EMA. Dropping for now given the bit of distribution but will keep an eye on it.
GIGM 02/16 DB hdl 20.28 -0.42 20.78 24.95 317K 1.6M 19.33
Buy Not Issued. Still working laterally still forming the handle to its base.
HAL 02/25 Dbl btm 39.06 +1.60 39.21 44.45 21M 15M 37.94
Entered today. Great surge higher on a spike in trade.
HES 02/16 DB hdl 95.97 +0.48 94.35 106.45 2.8M 7M 96.32
Current. Holding the 10 day EMA (94.52) as HES tests back and sets the stage for the next move toward that old high at 105ish.
ILMN 02/16 Test BO 73.95 -0.53 72.32 82.95 629K 1.8M 69.11
Buy Not Issued.
ILMN 02/02 Test BO 73.95 -0.53 69.86 79.95 629K 1.2M 73.44
Current. Testing back to the 10 day EMA on the low (73) but continuing its illuminating trend higher up that near support level.
ISRG 02/09 Test 50 289.91 -5.01 307.88 349.00 534K 1.9M 299.88
Current. Working laterally around the 50 day EMA (290.88) on very low volume, trading in a tight range. A hard read right now, but if it cannot break back up through 300 in the next week we will look to close it.
JBHT 02/27 Cup hdl 27.96 -0.71 29.65 35.55 2.7M 3.5M 28.11
Buy Not Hit. Locked up the brakes and gapped lower, selling off to the 200 day SMA on the close. Not the move we wanted, but will give it a session or two to work it out.
KWK 02/27 Test BO 35.22 +1.16 34.98 39.95 2M 3M 32.95
Entered today. Solid move off of the 18 day EMA test. Not a lot of trade but it had the momentum so we opted for some more positions as KWK continues its breakout move.
KWK 02/05 Test BO 35.22 +1.16 30.78 36.45 2M 3.4M 34.68
Current.
MA 02/09 Rev HS 194.70 +3.51 208.22 239.00 2.9M 5M 201.11
Current. Recovered the 90 day SMA (193.90) after the early week selling. No volume and it failed on the session high at the 50 day EMA (197.64); needs to clear that level to get back in decent shape.
MM 02/07 PreAnn 63.60 -0.02 52.78 61.45 486K 450K 61.38
Current. Won't stop though it finally finished flat on the Thursday session, having to come back to close flat. Volume surged. Have to be careful here as noted Wednesday given it has rallied 17 clicks on this move alone.
MON 02/19 DB hdl 118.52 -0.75 120.88 137.95 4.5M 7.5M 115.95
Current. Doji at the 10 day EMA on low volume. In good shape to continue the move higher.
NOK 02/12 Rev HS 37.90 -0.35 38.30 43.95 11M 23M 37.11
Current. Took a day off on low volume after the break higher Tuesday through the 90 day SMA.
OTEX 02/16 Cup hdl 33.18 +0.18 34.31 39.95 375K 1M 32.91
Buy Not Issued.
OTEX 01/30 Test 50 33.18 +0.18 31.62 37.44 375K 825K 33.88
Current. Continued the Monday bounce off the 50 day EMA though the entire move is on low volume. Still in a great pattern, still looking for another definitive move higher as it did 2 weeks back.
POT 02/16 Rev HS 162.29 +2.69 152.59 172.95 4.9M 7.8M 158.91
Current. Bounced off the 10 day EMA for a nice price gain though volume did not follow along.
POT 01/12 Test 50 162.29 +2.69 143.11 164.32 4.9M 5.5M 158.91
Current.
RIG 02/23 Cup hdl 143.88 +2.19 142.88 163.85 5.7M 11M 139.88
Current. Forming a second handle with a lateral, low volume test. On a break higher on rising trade we are looking to add to positions.
RIMM 02/09 Dbl btm 109.05 -2.45 92.30 105.95 17M 32M 105.22
Current. Took a day off on low volume after the nice Wednesday break higher. Still solid, still letting it set up and make its next move.
RTN 02/07 Test BO 66.29 -0.13 67.15 76.95 1.8M 3M 65.77
Current. Tested lower to the 18 day EMA then rebounded to flat on another day of low volume (three weeks running), working laterally as it still looks for a new break higher.
SDA 02/23 Cup 17.56 -0.24 18.64 22.38 453K 450K 17.74
Buy Not Hit. Still working over the 50 day EMA, still setting up for a break higher, but it will have to show it.
SGR 02/22 Cup 68.29 +0.59 63.88 74.95 1.3M 2.5M 61.54
Buy Not Issued. Will have to make a test. Dropping for now.
SPN 02/11 Dbl btm 42.95 +1.29 43.75 49.95 1.2M 1.2M 42.88
Current. Rebounded from the rather wild Wednesday trade that saw SPN tap the 50 day EMA on the low and rebound into the close. It continued that rebound today, leaving it in pretty solid shape, but it still needs to keep the recovery moving.
STLD 02/14 Dbl btm 62.01 +1.55 57.68 67.45 2M 3M 59.11
Current. Bounced up off of the half-test of the 10 day EMA. Closed off the session high but still a solid resumption of the move as volume did improve on the bounce.
SVNT 02/06 Test 50 24.16 +0.46 22.77 27.39 1.5M 2M 22.88
Current. Added to its gains on rising, above average volume as the momentum from the Tuesday breakout move continues.
TJX 01/31 DB hdl 32.62 -0.25 32.07 36.95 4.8M 6.5M 31.92
Current. Fading back on low, below average volume after that strong move through Tuesday. Pretty typical test at this point.
TKC 02/23 DB hdl 26.12 -0.71 26.21 30.89 2.4M 2.2M 25.78
Current. Gapped lower on the session but held up at support at 26 and on lower though still above average volume. Nice handle forming again.
TRA 02/23 DB hdl 48.06 +0.60 50.65 60.85 3.2M 5.7M 47.10
Current. Tough Wednesday session as TRA gapped lower and closed over the 18 day EMA. It started there Thursday and managed to scratch out a gain though on very low volume. Still in solid shape and still looking for a break higher from this near support.
URBN 02/26 Asc Bse 29.53 -1.25 31.24 37.48 3.7M 3.9M 29.48
Buy Not Hit. Great move Tuesday, took it all back Thursday. Volume was much lower than the Tuesday upside run so we will see if it can hold at the 18 day EMA (29.25) and rebound on stronger trade once more.
USO 02/25 Test BO 81.48 +2.56 80.16 91.95 3.3M 4.5M 79.89
Current. Another break higher by oil and thus this oil-based ETF.
VIP 02/12 Dbl btm 36.01 -0.57 38.36 45.65 2.5M 6M 36.57
Current. Gapped lower but held above the 90 day SMA on volume that remains well below average. Still a good pattern. On a break back upside it is worth adding to positions.
WFR 02/09 Rev HS 78.68 -1.32 81.09 95.95 3.1M 7M 78.21
Current. Fell back to the 50 day SMA Wednesday and Thursday, holding that level on low, below average volume. Not breaking down, just having a hard time making the next move higher. The pattern remains solid, however.
XTO 02/14 Test BO 63.00 +2.48 55.21 62.97 8.4M 7M 61.31
Current. Another big surge higher on strong volume as XTO in the natural gas sector runs like a wild horse. It has topped our target, but given the strong move we are letting it run as far as it will.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AMZN 02/22 Put 67.85 -3.02 71.21 64.55 13M 10M 68.42
Tanked down after failing at the 10 day EMA. Volume jumped back above average as AMZN turns south.
CNH 01/30 HdShldr 52.09 -0.47 47.65 41.54 522K 850K 4615.0
Current. After several dojis below the 50 day EMA on low volume CNH started to nudge lower on rising trade. Needs to show more volume on the way lower to really break down, but if it does pick up selling pressure we will let it fall and look at some new downside positions as money flow remains very weak.
GRMN 02/09 Put 60.44 -0.75 65.58 59.54 3.8M 5.5M 62.68
Current. No big lurches lower, but a steady decline down the 10 day EMA. Has to break below the 60 level to really get back to the downside run in earnest.
IWM 02/14 Put 70.32 -1.08 69.88 67.35 66M 98M 71.11
Buy Not Issued.
IWM 02/09 Put 70.32 -1.08 69.09 66.04 66M 15M 70.44
Current. Tanked lower through the 10 and 18 day EMA though on low volume. After four tries it turned lower, tapping some support at 70 on the low. Needs to break through there to get some downside momentum, but the small caps are starting to look weaker.
PCLN 02/05 Put 123.31 +0.06 95.45 86.05 1.2M 1.8M 94.11
Current. PCLN has faded back from that huge spike 2 weeks back, but it held at the 10 day EMA on the Thursday low. Likely not going back any further, but the options are worthless, so if it bounces it really doesn't matter.
QID 01/30 Test 18 50.97 +0.74 50.96 57.32 29M 39M 51.88
Current. Continues working laterally over the 18 day EMA as the large cap tech index does the same on the other side, i.e. bumping up against the 18 day EMA from the downside. Dell was pressuring it, but a lot of 'rah rah' in the conference call changed that some. Still was lower after hours, and that is good for QID.
QID 01/26 Test 18 50.97 +0.74 51.57 57.32 29M 39M 51.88
Current.
SDS 01/30 Test 18 61.54 +1.43 63.28 72.45 18M 25M 63.38
Current. Sold back to the 50 day EMA as SP500 rallied up to that level, then bounced Thursday as SP500 faded. Not much volume. How it handles 62.50 level will tell more, but right now there is not much downside momentum and thus this is a relief bounce for SDS.
SDS 01/24 Test BO 61.54 +1.43 63.18 72.45 18M 30M 63.38
Current.
TWM 01/24 Test 18 81.15 +2.57 85.77 97.95 8.2M 10M 82.05
Current. Bounced off the 50 day EMA as the Russell bounced down from another test of the 50 day EMA and fell through the 10 and 18 day EMA. Interesting development as the small gap Russell looks ready to fall.
XRAY 02/22 Put 40.15 +0.19 39.04 37.00 944K 1.4M 40.15
Buy Not Issued. Low volume tap at the 18 day EMA and the 200 day SMA. Looking for it to roll over from this test, but need to see the volume ratchet up as it does.
End part 2 of 3
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