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stock split, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 02/28/2008
NEOG (Neogen--$27.72; -0.38; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/neog.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-3-08
STATUS: Test breakout. NEOG broke higher just over a week back, clearing a 4.5 month base formed after NEOG's nice 2007 run, a run that needed a bit of consolidation before the stock could move higher. After that base it broke sharply higher mid-month, rallying on very strong volume. After that move it turned laterally for this week, waiting for the 10 day EMA (27.11) to catch up with it. It has now done that, and we are ready to move in as NEOG makes the next break higher on strong volume.
Volume: 46.622K Avg Volume: 42.954K
BUY POINT: $28.24 Volume=64K Target=$33.95 Stop=$26.77
POSITION: QOL EF - May $30c (48 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/neog.html
Play Date: 02/28/2008
PPDI (Pharmaceutical Product Dev.--$46.88; +0.45; optionable): Medical labs, research
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ppdi.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-6-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A sweet little 7 week base has formed using the 50 day EMA as support, consolidating the January run to a new all-time high. It has worked laterally the past week, holding a tight range as the 10 day EMA (45.80) rose to meet it. Thursday it gapped lower to that level then reversed to close positive. Very solid pattern that is ready to show us the breakout move.
Volume: 924.788K Avg Volume: 991.749K
BUY POINT: $47.22 Volume=1.5M Target=$56.75 Stop=$45.63
POSITION: PJQ GW - July $47.50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ppdi.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 02/28/2008
MEA (Metalico, Inc.--$12.20; -0.20; no options): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mea.html
EARNINGS: Late April
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working on a two week handle to the 18 week base formed after MEA rallied to a new high in October. It rallied back up to test that level mid-month, then faded to the 10 and 18 day EMA where it found support. Now we are looking for it to make the break higher off this level, and the low volume hammer doji shown Thursday in the candlestick chart is a good indication it is getting close to the breakout move.
Volume: 113.467K Avg Volume: 213.898K
BUY POINT: $13.11 Volume=321K Target=$15.95 Stop=$12.19
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mea.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/28/2008
ESRX (Express Scripts--$63.05; -1.86; optionable): Mail order prescriptions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-21-08
STATUS: Put. Looking to play ESRX to the downside again after it has tested the 50 day EMA (66.11) and has failed, starting to fall in earnest Thursday. It gapped lower in mid-January and then spent the time since trying to move back up through that level. It has started to roll over on rising volume, ready to follow the declining money flow lower. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 3.949M Avg Volume: 3.18M
BUY POINT: $62.94 Volume=3.6M Target=$59.65 Stop=$64.55
POSITION: XTQ PM - Apr. $65p (-55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/esrx.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ADM: Researching date
AMX: Researching date
ATW: Forecast late February or first week of March.
BUCY: Continuing its trend up the 10 day EMA
BVN: Forecast 2-28-08. Good session ahead of earnings. No news on a split as of yet.
CEDC: Researching date
CLF: Researching date
CPRT: Forecast first week of March
EAC: Surging nicely higher for us.
ECA: Nice strong volume as ECA makes the breakout
FCX: Good start to the play with a nice break higher the past two sessions.
ISRG: Wildcard. Researching date.
JEC: Researching date
JOYG: Early March
MA: Forecast late April
MM: Researching date.
OTEX: No announcement 2-7-08.
RIG: Nice break higher.
TKC: Excellent breakout move
STLD: Researching date
UPL: Forecast second week of February. Still moving higher though no split announcement yet.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 02/28/2008
JEC (Jacobs Engineering--$83.70; +0.66; optionable): Engineering services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jec.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-22-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After surging to just over 100 to start January, JEC plunged down to the 200 day SMA to start the current 7 week base that is consolidating the 2007 run that more than doubled the price. It needed this rest, and it is setting up well to make a new run. It moved up through the 50 day EMA (81.26) Monday and has moved laterally since, tapping the 50 day EMA each session on the intraday low and then rebounding. This action is building a nice handle and shaking out the weak holders, setting up a new breakout. The bigger pattern can be viewed as a head and shoulders, but we like the volume JEC is showing on the upside, and if it gives a strong burst of volume on the breakout move it will break up that pattern that often does not come to fruition.
Volume: 2.448M Avg Volume: 1.891M
BUY POINT: $85.08 Volume=2.8M Target=$99.90 Stop=$81.22
POSITION: JEQ GQ - July $85c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jec.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 02/26/2008
AMX (America Movil--$62.97; -1.20; optionable): Latin American wireless
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-6-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. After the surge higher Tuesday, AMX is testing, coming back Thursday on low volume toward the 10 day EMA (62.27). This pullback gives it a good point to surge off of. To recap: Strong volume Tuesday as AMX broke higher from its 11 week base formed at the tail end of an 8 month base. A big mover from 2005 to 2007, it needed this base to consolidate the gains and set up the foundation for the next move higher. Looking to take some positions as AMX continues this break higher.
Volume: 5.724M Avg Volume: 6.704M
BUY POINT: $64.55 Volume=7.5M Target=$74.25 Stop=$62.11
POSITION: AMX HN - Aug. $65c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amx.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/26/2008
ANSS (Ansys--$38.42; -0.14; optionable): Technical software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anss.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-21-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working laterally on lower volume, still working on the handle and setting up the next break higher. Just being patient to let it show us the break higher. To recap: Gapped higher on its earnings, forming the right side of its 8 week base that formed using the 200 day SMA as support. After that gap higher on earnings it came back to test the 50 day EMA on lower volume, then surged higher Tuesday on a strong shot above average trade. Money flow is surging higher and ANSS looks ready to continue the move.
Volume: 749.177K Avg Volume: 712.519K
BUY POINT: $39.08 Volume=900K Target=$44.95 Stop=$37.68
POSITION: QUS GH - July $40c (54 delta, 122 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/anss.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/27/2008
COIN (Converted Organics--$12.19; -0.79; no options): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coin.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Still setting up for the next break higher, testing back to the 10 day EMA (11.77) on low, below average volume. Looking for another strong bounce off of this level to give us the buy point. To recap: Another stock that has made us some nice money already, COIN has come back to test the 10 day EMA, the first test of the breakout from its 5 week cup with handle base. Wednesday it tapped at the 10 day EMA and then reversed for a solid gain. Looking to step in with some more positions as COIN continues the next leg higher.
Volume: 779.922K Avg Volume: 1.023M
BUY POINT: $13.32 Volume=2M Target=$16.00 Stop=$12.39
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/coin.html
Play Date: 02/27/2008
CMED (China Medical Technologies--$54.51; -0.95; optionable): Chinese medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmed.html
EARNINGS: 2-28-08 after the close
STATUS: Breakout test. Tried to make the break higher Thursday with some strong volume and an early surge, but it could not hold the move, fading back to the 10 day EMA (53.79) on the intraday low. Still a nice test, still ready to move higher, and ready to pick up some more positions as it does. To recap: Coming back to test the near support at the 10 day EMA (53.62) after the strong breakout from the short double bottom with handle base last week, part of a base on base that started in November. Nice volume on the break higher, lower volume on the pullback to near support where it tapped and then rebounded Wednesday. Excellent action and looking to add to positions as CMED comes off of this test.
Volume: 1.197M Avg Volume: 601.798K
BUY POINT: $56.12 Volume=850K Target=$64.55 Stop=$53.48
POSITION: QCY FK - June $55c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cmed.html
Play Date: 02/16/2008
GIGM (Gigamedia--$20.28; -0.42; optionable): Online gaming software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gigm.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Back down to the 10 day EMA on very low volume as GIGM continues forming the handle, preparing for the break higher from this nicely formed pattern. Need to see some volume when it makes the move. To recap: Nice 15 week base has set up the breakout, laying the foundation for a new run after GIGM's strong rally from August to November. Spent the last week working laterally over the 90 day SMA after a high volume jump to start the week. May take a few more sessions to finish the base, but setting up well with money flow leading higher.
Volume: 316.935K Avg Volume: 989.43K
BUY POINT: $20.78 Volume=1.6M Target=$24.95 Stop=$19.33
POSITION: GBU GD - July $20c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gigm.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock split
stock recommendation
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