|
|
world stock market, us stock market
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 03/01/2008
APC (Anadarko Petroleum--$63.74; -1.76; optionable): Independent natural gas, oil producer
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-4-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Working laterally last week, showing upside volume on the gains, APC is forming the handle to a 9 week base that formed using the 200 day SMA to make the two bottoms of the pattern. Nice strong rally in February off the second low, and last week moving laterally to take its first real pause on the run. It started the break higher midmonth as it cleared the 'hump' in the pattern at 60, and this lateral move or test is giving us a great entry point for the next leg higher. Going to wait for it to finish its lateral move as the 10 day EMA (62.86) rushes up to meet it. When it gets there the break higher will follow and that is when we move in.
Volume: 3.811M Avg Volume: 4.905M
BUY POINT: $64.21 Volume=7.4M Target=$73.95 Stop=$62.65
POSITION: APC EL - May $60c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/apc.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 03/01/2008
CHNR (China Natural Resources--$26.30; +2.54; no options): Industrial metals, minerals, China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chnr.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. We looked at CHNR earlier in the month, but it was moving slowly so we took it off but watched it. Friday it broke higher off a raft of support, moving on very strong volume, the strongest in 2.5 months. That is the move we were looking for to start the play. It is making the break from its 11 week bottoming pattern that used the 200 day SMA as support and is part of a larger 5 month cup base. Ready to move in and take positions as CHNR continues the break to the upside.
Volume: 1.353M Avg Volume: 587.86K
BUY POINT: $26.48 Volume=625K Target=$32.75 Stop=$24.63
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/chnr.html
Play Date: 03/01/2008
CRZO (Carrizo Oil & Gas--$57.75; -3.78; optionable): Independent natural gas and oil producer
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crzo.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-28-08
STATUS: Test breakout. CRZO broke out last Monday, surging out of a nicely formed 8 week base that set up a new run by testing down to the 200 day SMA on the January lows. It announced earnings Thursday and Friday it sold back on that announcement, giving back some of the breakout, but still just a test of the nice breakout move as it tapped the 10 day EMA on the low (57) and bounced modestly. Volume was lower. Looking for CRZO to hold this level and then rebound for the next run, giving us our entry point.
Volume: 778.457K Avg Volume: 403.006K
BUY POINT: $58.11 Volume=600K Target=$69.95 Stop=$56.44
POSITION: QOW GK - July $55c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/crzo.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/01/2008
APOL (Apollo Group--$61.38; -2.81; optionable): Private education and training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apol.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-8-08
STATUS: Put. APOL double topped in January to early February and started this decline. Last week it broke below the 200 day SMA (64.43), rebounded to recapture that level, but volume was low. It slipped modestly Thursday back to that level, then gaped lower Friday on strong, above average volume. It is in a dive and we are ready to move in as it continues lower. A move to the target lands a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 3.99M Avg Volume: 3.253M
BUY POINT: $61.08 Volume=3.3M Target=$56.05 Stop=$62.11
POSITION: OAQ PL - Apr. $60c (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/apol.html
Play Date: 03/01/2008
GRA (W.R. Grace & Co.--$21.23; -1.63; optionable): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gra.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-30-08
STATUS: Put. GRA made us some great money on its January dive lower, and after a low volume rebound and consolidation attempt at the 50 day EMA (22.60) in February, it started to roll over to end last week, falling on some rising trade as it bumps the bottom of its February range. Looking for a break lower from this range as GRA follows its weakening money flow. Ready to move in as it continues lower. A move to the target lands a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 971.371K Avg Volume: 1.031M
BUY POINT: $20.86 Volume=1.1M Target=$18.25 Stop=$22.05
POSITION: GRP PX - Apr. $22.50p (-66 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gra.html
Play Date: 03/01/2008
PCP (Precision Castparts--$110.39; -5.09; optionable): Metal fabrication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcp.html
EARNINGS: 1-22-08
STATUS: Put. Steel itself is hot but parts that are made are not so hot: if the US economy and world economies are slowing, demand for parts will wane. Thus PCP's laggard status even though it is involved in steel. It tanked hard in January but then rebounded into February, forming a consolidation similar to the rest of the market. It consolidated in a tight range the past two weeks, particularly last week, then Friday it broke lower out of that consolidation. Volume was up, though it was still well below average. Looking for another selloff here to take it back down toward the January lows near 100. Our target is not that ambitious, but it lands a 45%ish gain. If it is selling hard at that point, we will of course let at least part of the position continue lower.
Volume: 1.324M Avg Volume: 1.739M
BUY POINT: $109.68 Volume=1.8M Target=$103.55 Stop=$111.21
POSITION: PCP PB - Apr. $110p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pcp.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ADM: Researching date
AMX: Researching date
ATW: Forecast late February or first week of March.
BUCY: Forecast second week of March
BVN: Forecast 2-28-08. Good session ahead of earnings. No news on a split as of yet.
CEDC: Forecast tentatively early May
CLF: Forecast second week of May
CPRT: Forecast first week of March
EAC: Tentatively forecast mid-March
ECA: Nice strong volume as ECA makes the breakout
FCX: Good start to the play with a nice break higher the past two sessions.
ISRG: Wildcard. Researching date.
JEC: Forecast third week of April
JOYG: Early March
MA: Forecast late April
MM: Researching date.
OTEX: No announcement 2-7-08.
RIG: Forecast mid-May
TKC: Tentatively forecast mid-April
STLD: Late April
UPL: Forecast second week of February. Still moving higher though no split announcement yet.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 03/01/2008
SGR (Shaw Group--$64.38; -3.91; optionable): Construction services (utility plants, power plants, etc.) worldwide
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sgr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-9-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. We looked at SGR over the past couple of weeks, trying to get a decent entry point on it, but it moved up on low overall volume and we waited. Friday it finished the month with some profit taking after a nice run. Volume on the session was low so there was no dumping, just some adjusting ahead of month end. It may take a few sessions to complete this pullback, but we want to be ready to move in when it makes the strong volume break higher.
Volume: 1.536M Avg Volume: 2M
BUY POINT: $65.78 Volume=3M Target=$78.95 Stop=$62.22
POSITION: SGR GM - July $65c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sgr.html
Play Date: 03/01/2008
PCU (Southern Copper--$114.11; -5.29; optionable): Copper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcu.html
EARNINGS: Last week of April
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. PCU tried to make a break higher mid-week but it did not get a lot of volume to push it, and on Friday it faded back some. It is working on a handle to a 16 week base. Made a nice pullback to the 10 day EMA (112.23) last week after a nice surge midmonth. It bounced and came back Friday, on low trade, and we are looking to pick it up off of this test if it can show some better volume once more as it starts upside.
Volume: 1.964M Avg Volume: 2.261M
BUY POINT: $116.25 Volume=3.4M Target=$138.75 Stop=$112.11
POSITION: PCU FC - June $115c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pcu.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/25/2008
DE (Deere & Co.--$85.21; -1.76; optionable): Agriculture machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/de.html
EARNINGS: 5-14-08
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. DE is still at the 50 day EMA (85.34), selling back to that level Friday in the market selling. This keeps it in a four week lateral ascending range after the recovery from the January selling. If it makes a higher low here at the 50 day EMA (has used the 90 day SMA on the two previous lows) that puts us on alert for the breakout move.
Volume: 5.208M Avg Volume: 5.433M
BUY POINT: $90.65 Volume=8.2M Target=$103.95 Stop=$85.91
POSITION: DE FR - June $90c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/de.html
Play Date: 02/28/2008
NEOG (Neogen--$26.99; -0.74; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/neog.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-3-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Still testing, holding at the November and December peaks on low volume. Showed a pair of dojis to end last week as the market was under pressure. That means no selling ongoing in NEOG. Looking for it to make its next break higher when the current market weakness abates. To recap: NEOG broke higher just over a week back, clearing a 4.5 month base formed after NEOG's nice 2007 run, a run that needed a bit of consolidation before the stock could move higher. After that base it broke sharply higher mid-month, rallying on very strong volume. After that move it turned laterally for this week, waiting for the 10 day EMA (27.11) to catch up with it. It has now done that, and we are ready to move in as NEOG makes the next break higher on strong volume.
Volume: 41.803K Avg Volume: 42.954K
BUY POINT: $28.24 Volume=64K Target=$33.95 Stop=$26.77
POSITION: QOL EF - May $30c (48 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/neog.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/27/2008
COIN (Converted Organics--$12.80; +0.61; no options): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coin.html
STATUS: Test breakout. COIN made another test of the 10 day EMA (11.96) Thursday then started to rebound Friday though volume did not move with it. Still very solid and it is ready to make the next break higher. To recap: Another stock that has made us some nice money already, COIN has come back to test the 10 day EMA, the first test of the breakout from its 5 week cup with handle base. Wednesday it tapped at the 10 day EMA and then reversed for a solid gain. Looking to step in with some more positions as COIN continues the next leg higher.
Volume: 723.203K Avg Volume: 1.046M
BUY POINT: $13.32 Volume=2M Target=$16.00 Stop=$12.39
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coin.html
Play Date: 02/16/2008
ILMN (Illumina--$72.41; -1.54; optionable): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ilmn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-4-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Coming back to test the 18 day EMA (71.50) last week on very low, below average volume, using the market selling as cover for a normal test of its move higher. Looking for volume to pick up after this test to give us the new buy on ILMN as it continues the run from its breakout.
Volume: 819.127K Avg Volume: 1.351M
BUY POINT: New: $72.92 (orig. $72.32) Volume=1.8M Target=$82.95 Stop=$69.11
POSITION: IQA FN - June $70c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ilmn.html
Play Date: 02/28/2008
MEA (Metalico, Inc.--$11.63; -0.57; no options): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mea.html
EARNINGS: Late April
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Tumbled Friday on rising, above average volume, but we are not taking our eye off of this one as it makes this test given its pattern and its sector. Just waiting for it to make the next rebound in this handle. To recap: Working on a two week handle to the 18 week base formed after MEA rallied to a new high in October. It rallied back up to test that level mid-month, then faded to the 10 and 18 day EMA where it found support. Now we are looking for it to make the break higher off this level, and the low volume hammer doji shown Thursday in the candlestick chart is a good indication it is getting close to the breakout move.
Volume: 335.521K Avg Volume: 213.332K
BUY POINT: $13.11 Volume=321K Target=$15.95 Stop=$12.19
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mea.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
world stock market
us stock market
|
