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world stock market, us stock market
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/03/2008
CPRT (Copart--$42.28; +0.62; optionable): Auto parts salvage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cprt.html
EARNINGS: 3-6-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Strong volume the past week as CPRT surged higher off the second bottom in its 9 week base. CPRT has a habit of performing well in weaker economies; we played it frequently in 2001 during the official recession. Very nice pattern. Money flow is surging up ahead of price, and we are looking for a break higher to step into this very nicely formed base.
Volume: 769.045K Avg Volume: 588.616K
BUY POINT: $42.92 Volume=750K Target=$49.75 Stop=$40.38
POSITION: KQJ EH - May $30c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cprt.html
Play Date: 03/04/2008
IMO (Imperial Oil Ltd.--$55.80; -0.79; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imo.html
EARNINGS: 5-1-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Moving laterally and fading back to the 10 day EMA (55.30) the past week, forming a handle to its 16 week base formed after running to a new high in early November. Needed the base, and this is a kingly looking base. Looking for high volume off of the 10 day EMA; there was very strong trade Monday as it tested lower and then rebounded.
Volume: 573.889K Avg Volume: 360.702K
BUY POINT: $57.55 Volume=500K Target=$66.31 Stop=$54.55
POSITION: IMO EK - May $55c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/imo.html
Play Date: 03/04/2008
TX (Ternium--$37.86; +0.60; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Faded back the past week and one-half to the 18 day EMA (37.37), forming a handle to its 11 week base that used the 200 day SMA on the lows as support. A new issue in mid-2006; like relatively new issues. It hit a new high in early December and needed a base. Nice base at that. Good low volume on this test of near support after some really strong volume broke it higher two weeks back. Just looking for that volume bump again as it starts back up to show us the buyers are jumping in.
Volume: 250.777K Avg Volume: 408.873K
BUY POINT: $39.11 Volume=613K Target=$44.95 Stop=$26.97
POSITION: TX EH - May $40c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tx.html
New buy points on current positions:
Play Date: 03/03/2008
AKS (AK Steel Holding--$52.72; +0.10; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aks.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-22-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice tap of the 10 day EMA (51.88) Monday and then a bounce positive; barely. Nice test the past four sessions following that mid-February breakout from its 15 week double bottom with handle base. Very nice action; a leader in its field. Ready to move in with more positions as it continues higher on rising trade.
Volume: 2.456M Avg Volume: 3M
BUY POINT: $53.31 Volume=4.5M Target=$61.38 Stop=$51.21
POSITION: AKS FJ - June $50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aks.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/03/2008
DXD (ProShares DJ30 UltraShort ETF--$57.82; +0.17; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dxd.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Don't want to leave out the downside given the indices are testing the bottom of their trading ranges. DXD jumped Friday as DJ30 sold. It paused Monday as DJ30 held basically steady. Looking for the next big break lower by DJ30 to send DXD higher and give us a nice buy point.
Volume: 4.956M Avg Volume: 5M
BUY POINT: $58.92 Volume=7.5M Target=$64.95 Stop=$56.23
POSITION: DXD DF - Apr. $58c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dxd.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/01/2008
APC (Anadarko Petroleum--$64.20; +0.46; optionable): Independent natural gas, oil producer
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-4-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Tried to make the move Monday but not enough trade pushing it. Still a solid pattern and just waiting for the breakout. To recap: Working laterally last week, showing upside volume on the gains, APC is forming the handle to a 9 week base that formed using the 200 day SMA to make the two bottoms of the pattern. Nice strong rally in February off the second low, and last week moving laterally to take its first real pause on the run. It started the break higher midmonth as it cleared the 'hump' in the pattern at 60, and this lateral move or test is giving us a great entry point for the next leg higher. Going to wait for it to finish its lateral move as the 10 day EMA (62.86) rushes up to meet it. When it gets there the break higher will follow and that is when we move in.
Volume: 4.292M Avg Volume: 4.905M
BUY POINT: $64.21 Volume=7.4M Target=$73.95 Stop=$62.65
POSITION: APC EL - May $60c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/apc.html
Play Date: 03/01/2008
CHNR (China Natural Resources--$24.17; -2.13; no options): Industrial metals, minerals, China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chnr.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Gapped higher, looked good, then faded to close at the 10 day EMA. Still solid, and looking for that next break higher that sticks to move into it. To recap: We looked at CHNR earlier in the month, but it was moving slowly so we took it off but watched it. Friday it broke higher off a raft of support, moving on very strong volume, the strongest in 2.5 months. That is the move we were looking for to start the play. It is making the break from its 11 week bottoming pattern that used the 200 day SMA as support and is part of a larger 5 month cup base. Ready to move in and take positions as CHNR continues the break to the upside.
Volume: 457.277K Avg Volume: 587.86K
BUY POINT: $26.48 Volume=625K Target=$32.75 Stop=$24.63
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/chnr.html
Play Date: 03/01/2008
GTIV (Gentiva Health Services--$22.00; +0.44; optionable): Home health care
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gtiv.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-14-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume kicked up above average Monday as GTIV bounced up off the 10 day EMA. Looks ready to make the move. To recap: Nice, low volume handle has formed the past two weeks as GTIV takes a breather after a strong run mid-February that formed the right side of the 7 month base. Strong volume on that run higher then a nice lower volume handle as the gain is consolidated and the short term profit takers leave. Looking for a break higher on strong volume to signal the breakout is underway. That is when we move in.
Volume: 302.551K Avg Volume: 238.276K
BUY POINT: $22.66 Volume=357K Target=$27.25 Stop=$21.22
POSITION: FUP ED - May $20c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gtiv.html
Play Date: 02/16/2008
ILMN (Illumina--$72.88; +0.47; optionable): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ilmn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-4-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Bouncing off the 18 day EMA but no volume yet. Just looking for some more trade as it makes the move. To recap: Coming back to test the 18 day EMA (71.50) last week on very low, below average volume, using the market selling as cover for a normal test of its move higher. Looking for volume to pick up after this test to give us the new buy on ILMN as it continues the run from its breakout.
Volume: 611.074K Avg Volume: 1.351M
BUY POINT: New: $72.92 (orig. $72.32) Volume=1.8M Target=$82.95 Stop=$69.11
POSITION: IQA FN - June $70c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ilmn.html
Play Date: 03/01/2008
PCU (Southern Copper--$114.89; +0.78; optionable): Copper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcu.html
EARNINGS: Last week of April
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Jumped higher early but could not hold the move even though volume moved up to near average on the session. Still very solid, tapping the 10 day EMA (112.72) on the low and recovering for a gain. Excellent set up and ready to move higher. To recap: PCU tried to make a break higher mid-week but it did not get a lot of volume to push it, and on Friday it faded back some. It is working on a handle to a 16 week base. Made a nice pullback to the 10 day EMA last week after a nice surge midmonth. It bounced and came back Friday, on low trade, and we are looking to pick it up off of this test if it can show some better volume once more as it starts upside.
Volume: 2.32M Avg Volume: 2.261M
BUY POINT: $116.25 Volume=3.4M Target=$138.75 Stop=$112.11
POSITION: PCU FC - June $115c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pcu.html
CONTINUING DOWNSIDE:
Play Date: 03/01/2008
PCP (Precision Castparts--$109.18; -1.21; optionable): Metal fabrication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcp.html
EARNINGS: 1-22-08
STATUS: Put. Gapped lower Monday, sold off, then rebounded to recoup just over half the loss on the session. Still weak, still looking for the turn down. If it does, it is still a buy. To recap: Steel itself is hot but parts that are made are not so hot: if the US economy and world economies are slowing, demand for parts will wane. Thus PCP's laggard status even though it is involved in steel. It tanked hard in January but then rebounded into February, forming a consolidation similar to the rest of the market. It consolidated in a tight range the past two weeks, particularly last week, then Friday it broke lower out of that consolidation. Volume was up, though it was still well below average. Looking for another selloff here to take it back down toward the January lows near 100. Our target is not that ambitious, but it lands a 45%ish gain. If it is selling hard at that point, we will of course let at least part of the position continue lower.
Volume: 1.528M Avg Volume: 1.739M
BUY POINT: New: $108.98 (orig. $109.68) Volume=1.8M Target=$103.55 Stop=$111.21
POSITION: PCP PB - Apr. $110p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pcp.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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