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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/05/2008
DRS (DRS Technologies--$57.85; +0.99; optionable): Aerospace/defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drs.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-8-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice volume surge Wednesday as DRS headed toward the breakout from a nicely formed 13 week base formed to set the foundation for the next run higher. DRS hit a new high in December and needed to work off the froth. This base has done that and with money flow surging higher ahead of the price it looks as if DRS is ready to follow it higher. Nice. One of the sectors we note looks good.
Volume: 735.7K Avg Volume: 481.568K
BUY POINT: $58.08 Volume=700K Target=$66.85 Stop=$56.22
POSITION: DRS FK - June $55c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/drs.html
Play Date: 03/05/2008
IMCL (Imclone--$46.32; +0.90; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imcl.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-31-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice above average volume Wednesday as IMCL broke higher from a weeklong lateral handle, starting IMCL's move out of its 5 month base and on toward a 3 year high. This is the 'Martha Stewart' stock. Looks ready to clean up a bit.
Volume: 2.011M Avg Volume: 1.373M
BUY POINT: $46.61 Volume=1.5M Target=$54.94 Stop=$44.08
POSITION: QCI EI - May $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/imcl.html
Play Date: 03/05/2008
MUR (Murphy Oil--$83.93; +2.16; optionable): Oil and gas refining, marketing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mur.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-30-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Starting to break higher from a week of lateral movement that formed a handle to the 9 week base. The base used the 200 day SMA (69) as support, showing that the big money was not abandoning it at that point. The break higher Wednesday was on lower volume; want to see that improve as it continues the break higher on toward a new all-time high after setting the foundation with this base.
Volume: 1.54M Avg Volume: 1.503M
BUY POINT: $84.32 Volume=2.3M Target=$96.95 Stop=$80.78
POSITION: MUR GQ - July $85c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mur.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/05/2008
ARG (Airgas--$47.06; +0.86; optionable): Industrial equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/arg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-28-08
STATUS: Put. Broke down through the 200 day SMA (47.83) Tuesday, continuing a three day selloff on sharply higher, above average volume. It stalled out at the July peak and rolled over. Wednesday it rebounded to test the 200 day, moving up on low volume. That typically shows just a relief move and we are looking for a turn back down to give us a buy point for the continued mover lower. A move to the target lands a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 720.553K Avg Volume: 733.952K
BUY POINT: $46.24 Volume=750K Target=$43.15 Stop=$47.69
POSITION: ARG PJ - Apr. $50p (-64 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/arg.html
Play Date: 03/05/2008
CAM (Cooper Cameron--$42.25; +0.83; optionable): Oil services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cam.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-31-08
STATUS: Put. Looking at CAM again as it rebounds from the selling the past three sessions, moving up to the 200 day SMA (43) to test the break below that key level. It double topped spanning October to early January and broke down. It rebounded from the January selling, but stalled at resistance at 45. Wednesday it bounced back up but tapped the 10 day EMA and slid back. Looking for a continued move lower to give us a further downside play. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 4.054M Avg Volume: 4.365M
BUY POINT: $41.55 Volume=4.5M Target=$38.45 Stop=$41.79
POSITION: CAM QV - May $42.50p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cam.html
Play Date: 03/06/2008
PRE (Partnerre Ltd.--$75.59; -1.40; optionable): P&C Insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pre.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-4-08
STATUS: Put. PRE has formed a broad umbrella top the past 4.5 months. It broke below the 200 day SMA (now at 77.88), rebounded but stalled out and rolled back over. It tried to hold at the 200 day to end February , but it broke lower. Monday and Tuesday it tried to bounce off some support at 76, but Wednesday it rolled over and sold through that level. Ready to move in as PRE continues lower and follows some tanking money flow. A move to the target lands a 55%ish gain.
Volume: 600.6K Avg Volume: 609.745K
BUY POINT: $75.38 Volume=625K Target=$72.21 Stop=$76.65
POSITION: PRE PQ - Apr. $75p (-42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pre.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/03/2008
CPRT (Copart--$41.83; +0.13; optionable): Auto parts salvage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cprt.html
EARNINGS: 3-6-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still setting up nicely for the break higher, tapping near support at the 18 day EMA on the lows and rebounding to close flat. Very solid, just waiting for the break higher. To recap: Strong volume the past week as CPRT surged higher off the second bottom in its 9 week base. CPRT has a habit of performing well in weaker economies; we played it frequently in 2001 during the official recession. Very nice pattern. Money flow is surging up ahead of price, and we are looking for a break higher to step into this very nicely formed base.
Volume: 455.375K Avg Volume: 590.139K
BUY POINT: $42.92 Volume=750K Target=$49.75 Stop=$40.38
POSITION: KQJ EH - May $30c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cprt.html
Play Date: 03/04/2008
DNR (Denbury Resources--$32.55; +0.21; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dnr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Another good session of volume as DNR edged higher toward the breakout. Looks very strong, just have to see it make the break on this solid trade. To recap: Big volume Tuesday as DNR held the 10 day EMA (31.50) on the low as it continues working on the week long handle to its 8 week base. Very nice rest stop as DNR pauses to set up for a new breakout to a new high. Excellent set up and just waiting for it to make the break higher on continued strong volume.
Volume: 2.759M Avg Volume: 2.168M
BUY POINT: $33.11 Volume=3M Target=$39.75 Stop=$31.24
POSITION: DNR FZ - June $32.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dnr.html
Play Date: 03/01/2008
GTIV (Gentiva Health Services--$21.98; -0.12; optionable): Home health care
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gtiv.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-14-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working laterally in the handle still looking for the break higher. Set up, and now it has to show the move. To recap: Nice, low volume handle has formed the past two weeks as GTIV takes a breather after a strong run mid-February that formed the right side of the 7 month base. Strong volume on that run higher then a nice lower volume handle as the gain is consolidated and the short term profit takers leave. Looking for a break higher on strong volume to signal the breakout is underway. That is when we move in.
Volume: 253.57K Avg Volume: 244.205K
BUY POINT: $22.66 Volume=357K Target=$27.25 Stop=$21.22
POSITION: FUP ED - May $20c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gtiv.html
Play Date: 03/05/2008
IBM (International Business Machines--$115.39; -0.32; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ibm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-17-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Gapped higher but then faded to flat on just below average volume. Still a solid pattern setting up and just waiting for the break higher. To recap: IBM has carved out a 5 month base, surging last week to clear the hump in the pattern formed with the December high at 112. It is testing that move, working laterally the pat week on low, below average volume following that high volume surge. Monday the 10 day EMA (113) caught up with it and IBM jumped higher. Volume was up but it could be better. Looking for more trade as IBM makes the next break higher.
Volume: 8.431M Avg Volume: 8.983M
BUY POINT: $116.88 Volume=12M Target=$133.95 Stop=$112.55
POSITION: IBM GC - July $115c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ibm.html
Play Date: 03/05/2008
VIVO (Meridian Biosciences--$33.83; -0.59; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vivo.html
EARNINGS: Announced mid-February
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Tested a bit more, tapping the 18 day EMA on the low (33.43) and rebounding. It was still down but on low trade. Nice shakeout setting up the breakout. Nice. To recap: Excellent volume the past two weeks as VIVO bounced up off the 50 day EMA (32.50) and then volume faded as it tested slightly lower to the rising 10 day EMA (33.92). When it go there volume jumped Tuesday. This is part of a larger 5 month ascending base setting VIVO up for a breakout to a new all-time high. Very nice.
Volume: 244.42K Avg Volume: 376.132K
BUY POINT: $35.22 Volume=550K Target=$40.95 Stop=$33.25
POSITION: ZUG GG - July $35c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vivo.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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