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yahoo stock, us stock market
Begin Part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information. A "prior high" refers to the high at the start of a base.
For conserving space on listings of stop losses, the symbol (7%) indicates that the stop is 7% below the buy point.
Good movers: Breakout from CNMD (remains a buy up to 22.63 on the move out of the flat base)! MVL continued its breakout Friday in a strong move! TIER dropped to a low of 15.66 then held at our target for the short sale, 16. That play required patience!
Targets hit Friday: PENN (35.75)
Trailing Stop Advisory: RBK (27), VRTS (37.50)
Stop Advisory: BRCM (35 on buys at 31.90). Still below resistance at the 18 day MVA, 36.11, for continued holds on the put play.
Stocks/Indexes from the Thursday report:
CCK: Held the 10 day MVA as volume fell lower. Has made two 18 day MVA bounces and readying for another from here.
HRB: Hit the aggressive buy point (50) for the covered call sale play, target is 48. Volume was lower for the slight pullback and the stock held support for now, but still looking for the drop.
RMCI: No specific news to explain the fall through the 18 day MVA on strong volume. It closed just above a December/February up trendline, tapping it on the low, but the higher volume is of concern.
Neither of the puts hit the buy point, instead heading north in the rally:
EFII: Volume was lower but the stock rose back up to its 50 day MVA, closing just below that resistance. Can still make the drop for the put play (head and shoulders).
PSFT: A similar move from another software stock as PSFT crossed its 18 day MVA but closed below the 50 day MVA after tapping near that resistance.
Continued plays:
Covered call:
BLL: Still holding above the upper channel line Friday, and volume fell back well below average after Thursday big numbers. The stock held the 18 day MVA. The March $35 calls are asking for $8.10 (they were at $8.30 at the sell point earlier this month for the covered call sale play). We will look at closing out positions if it moves up on good volume, as this monster just won't quit lately (expiration in less than three weeks).
Other continued plays: Still like NBTY, ODP, PCX, JH, and LYTS in addition to the stocks listed below:
GAP: After breaking out of the ascending wedge, has tested the breakout and appears ready to hold the 10 day MVA.
HARB: In the cup with handle it tried to breakout from in late February but instead has formed a volatile pennant pattern. Volume is very low. New buy point 20.11 on strong volume (57,000 or higher).
STAR: Making the move on rising volume Friday, after tapping the 18 day MVA on the low. This is the move we were waiting for (2-25) after taking earlier positions at 19.75. From here, 20.50 on continued strong volume (up above average Friday) for positions with stock and/or July $17.50 calls to buy.
Updates on Puts: BRCD (buy point 23) was up on lower volume and still under resistance, so are holds for now.
QLGC: Rebounded to the 18 day MVA, but on lower volume, and still has the 200 day MVA at 44.03 to take out. It is still up from our buy point (39) however, so will be ready to close out that play if it breaks through resistance.
QQQ (put, buy point 33.90): Bounced up from 34 on lower volume. Just crested the 18 day MVA (35.55) and we have a stop loss at 36.
OEX: Had been watching this for a put, but the index broke above the 50 day MVA resistance Friday on rising, above average volume (never hit the next buy point). Did not close out the puts taken Thursday, but will use any weakness Monday to do so.
QSFT: Buy point was 18.50, stop loss is 21.50 just above the 18 day MVA (20.40). Closed just below that level Friday and there was lower volume on the move. Holding positions to see if weakens Monday.
CALP: 2-21. After the head and shoulders breakdown (buy point 11.90), the stock hit 11 where it found support for a Friday bounce back up on low volume. At resistance, so can fall back down (closed at 11.94 Friday). Stop advisory: 14
Best Plays: Like them all!
1) HNT: A low-volume pullback to support.
2) SIMG: A solid move off support.
3) IMAX: A strong move!
4) ASYT: Ditto.
5) PETM: Another good move, with a break of resistance!
New:
HNT (Healthnet--$24.12; -0.12; optionable): Health care plans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hnt.html
STATUS: Broke out of a flat base/cup of 13 weeks and on that move reached the February high at 25. It is in a larger cup with handle base that started in January 2001 and is now forming the handle to that bigger pattern. Volume is falling back from the strong breakout levels on the recent pattern, and Friday was down to 237,800 (avg. 401,000). The stock tapped the 18 day MVA (again) on the low of 23.88, support for the last 8 days, along with the 10 day MVA. Looking for another breakout from this tightening pattern. Money flow looks good. Target: 30
BUY POINT: 25.10 on volume of 540,000 or higher. Stop advisory (7%): 23.34
POSITION: Stock and/or July $20 calls to buy (HNT GD; low open interests).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/hnt.html
SIMG (Silicon Image--$7.24; +0.56; no options): Memory Chips
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/simg.html
STATUS: In a long base (2 years) but off the floor that is around $1 (highs near 60, but we won't let that discourage us)! The stock crossed back over its 200 day MVA the last day of November, a move that is always positive, and in this case SIMG followed through on that move over resistance. It ran to the January high at 7.35 but began at that point to consolidate in a wedge (posting higher lows above the 50 day MVA which is just below 6) with peaks at that January high save the mid February peak. Friday SIMG opened at the 18 day MVA (6.73 range), then on a strong shot of volume bounced up to the resistance (volume was 925,500; avg. 565,000). Looking for a breakout on the strong move. Great money flow, high relative strength. Target: 9
BUY POINT: Breakout: 7.45 on continued strong volume (minimum breakout volume was met at 763,000). Stop advisory (7%): 6.93
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/simg.html
IMAX (Imax Corp--$3.89; +0.38; no options): Leisure: Entertainment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imax.html
STATUS: Economy is better, so let's go to the show! Broke out of a flat base pattern that is the handle of a 13-month cup (the stock is making successive bounces from support levels, at the lowest in the base is the 50 day MVA, bouncing from there earlier in February, then from the 18 day MVA late in the month). Friday's move was off the 10 day MVA (3.48) on big volume (295,900; avg. 117,000). The company reported earnings, and the good news of higher profits sent the stock on its way. It broke the January closing (handle) high at 3.74, and we look for a continued move on the momentum (the stock is within our 5% limit for buying on breakouts). IMAX has strong money flow, and relative strength is breaking out. Target: 5
BUY POINT: 3.90 on continued strong volume. Stop advisory (7%): 3.63. May get an early Monday (intraday) test of the buy point of 3.88 before it heads out again. A buy up to 4.07 on the breakout.
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/imax.html
Update:
ASYT (Asyst Technologies--$17.68; +0.90; optionable): Semiconductor Equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asyt.html
STATUS: First update since 2-13 when we covered the stock in the ascending wedge it had formed since early January. ASYT did not break out but instead again tested the 50 day MVA 6 days ago, and Friday got a volume surge in the chips rally that popped the stock off of its most recent support, the 18 day MVA (16.61). Volume was up to 861,900 (avg. 350,300) on the move. We are looking for a breakout here, from the pattern that still resembles an ascending wedge, with upper resistance at the February high, 18. When that move looks ready to top out, ASYT can pull back to form a handle to the 9-month cup base which it is carving. That can lead to bigger gains on another breakout. Target: 22
BUY POINT: 18.10 on volume of 474,000 or higher. Stop Advisory (7%): 16.83
POSITION: Stock and/or June $15 calls to buy (QQY FC).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/asyt.html
PETM (PetsMart--$11.50; +0.81; optionable): Specialty Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/petm.html
STATUS: On the report 2-20. After a nice uptrend from the September low of 5.65, PETM peaked at the January high at 11.13 and formed an ascending wedge from which it broke out though the stock didn't follow through on the strong volume shown that day. Instead, PETM tested back to the 18 day MVA, even trading below that support Thursday but it was a quick tryst as the stock blasted back up Friday on big volume (2.7 million; avg. 1.2 million). There was no news backing the strong bounce but technically the 2 dips in the former ascending wedge pattern to the 50 day MVA helped consolidate the stock ahead of the move. PETM just beat the previous February intraday high (11.48), so is free and clear to run if the market lets it. Money flow is strong and breaking out, and relative strength is heading north as well. Target: 14
BUY POINT: 11.55 on continued strong volume. May get a slight pullback, after the strong move, to the 11.25-11.27 range before heading back out. Stop advisory (7%): 10.74
POSITION: Stock and/or July $10 calls to buy (QPT GB).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/petm.html
PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: DGX, FRX, LLL, MIK, BMET, APPB, IGT.
DGX ($71.31; +0.40; optionable): DGX is holding above the 50 day MVA, tapped on Thursday's low. Friday on higher volume (still below average), the stock closed just under its 18 day MVA (71.35). Looking for another 50 day MVA bounce. If it takes out the 18 day, it can run to the February high at 74.75 but our initial target on a bounce is at $77-78. Still has to break that resistance first.
FRX ($78.64; -0.88): Broke the 50 day MVA on stronger volume selling. It tapped the 78 level support, where it last held on stronger selling in mid-February. The more times FRX finds support there, the better, but the stock sure has been flirting with that level a lot lately without being able to hold a move back over its 18 day MVA, which is has tried since the earlier heavy selling. That selling weakened the stock. If it does not hold at 78 it is an easy fall to the 200 day MVA at 75.
LLL ($111.28; +1.43): Held the 10 day MVA for a bounce, with volume lower. May try to hold here, but has resistance at the 112 level. If it can't get over that soon, can give us the move down for the covered call sale play. Price/volume action has been off kilter the last six days.
MIK ($32.28; +2.48): Found support at 30 again, then bounced back over the 50 day and short term MVAs. Want to see it hold above those levels, but it is forming a head and shoulders pattern.
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: BBBY, SRCL
BBBY ($34.15; +0.75): Did as we wanted and held the 50 day MVA as it tries to tighten up in the flat base pattern. Price/volume still not great, up on lower volume (the stock broke below the 18 day MVA Thursday on rising volume) but at least price was back over the 18 day Friday.
SRCL ($65.57; +1.06): After hesitating with a few lateral dojis after the breakout from its cup 6 days ago, SRCL started to move up again on a slight rise in volume. It has to move over the previous high from February at 65.68, but volume was yet below average on the price rise. Looks like a pullback is in the offing toward 62 to 61.
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CSCO, SEBL, EMLX, BRCM, HDI, BRCD, BUD, AMGN, WMT, ORCL, HB, NOC
As with many tech stocks, the likes of CSCO, SEBL, EMLX, BRCM, BRCD were up Friday but on lower volume, and are still below resistance levels. They will need to show some follow-through on the moves up, and the patterns, too, are not the best at this point. ORCL is holding above its support (50 and 200 day MVAs but not above the 18 day, closing just under that level Friday, but that changed after hours when it announced it would miss its quarterly estimates.
AMGN ($58.53; +0.55): Haven't said anything about AMGN since adding it to the portfolio, but it is worth a mention as it forms an ascending wedge while deep in its cup base. Still below major resistance at the 200 day MVA (60.52).
HDI ($52.49; +1.23): Back over the 50 day MVA, though volume was below average. A good sign for the stock, which had traded below that level since near mid-February. Of course, now we want to see it hold above the 50 day and move laterally to finish working out the sellers.
HB ($59.70; -0.29): Looks good as the pennant continues to tighten up. Buy point (aggressive) is 60.50; breakout, 61.50.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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yahoo stock
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