|
|
us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 03/07/2008
GILD (Gilead Sciences--$47.81; -1.15; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gild.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-23-08
STATUS: Test breakout. GILD broke higher from a 7 week double bottom to start March, moving higher to end February and start this month on strong volume. It peaked out at 50 on Wednesday and faded, falling again Thursday but on much lower, below average volume. Nice breakout and we are going to let it make the test down near the 10 day EMA (47) and pick it up as it bounces off that level. A picture of strength in a weak market, and after this test of the break higher it will be a good buy as that gives the market time to recover.
Volume: 9.098M Avg Volume: 9.086M
BUY POINT: $47.22 Volume=11M Target=$55.45 Stop=$46.78
POSITION: GDQ EW - May $47.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gild.html
Play Date: 03/07/2008
LSTR (Landstar System--$47.66; -0.87; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lstr.html
EARNINGS: 4-17-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. LSTR is in trucking and as noted in the summary, trucking is forming up, a potential early economic indicator. LSTR is working on a 5 week handle over the 18 day EMA (47.06) in its 10 month base. Strong volume on the rally up the right side of the pattern in January, then low volume during the lateral and lower handle move in February. Volume surged ot start the month, something of a 'get ready' shot. Just being patient as we wait for a breakout on volume that is shooting higher again when it does.
Volume: 466.562K Avg Volume: 776.473K
BUY POINT: $49.05 Volume=1M Target=$56.45 Stop=$46.78
POSITION: QRY GJ - July $50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lstr.html
Play Date: 03/07/2008
XTO (XTO Energy--$60.83; -0.95; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-12-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Made us some great money on its breakout run, and now it is making the test we wanted, coming back to the 10 day EMA (60.68), coming to rest there on the Thursday close on much lower, below average volume. Watching to see if XTO holds at this level and then makes the next break higher in its breakout run. This is the second test of the 10 day EMA after the breakout. When making powerful runs stocks tend to bounce 4 to 5 times off the 10 or 18 day EMA. XTO is one of the stocks that is in a bull market despite the market overall, and it is strong. That means it still has plenty of upside ahead of it.
Volume: 5.583M Avg Volume: 5.981M
BUY POINT: $61.88 Volume=6.2M Target=$70.95 Stop=$60.39
POSITION: XTO HL - Aug. $60c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xto.html
New Leader Play:
Play Date: 03/07/2008
LIFC (Lifecell--$40.23; -0.51; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lifc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-27-08
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. LIFC broke higher just ahead of and after its earnings, moving off the 200 day SMA at 37.25 on strong volume. It ran into the 90 day MA (41.52) on that recovery, and then started to work laterally in a tight range over the 50 day EMA (40.11). As it works laterally money flow is surging higher, showing continued buying as it consolidates. Looking for some strong volume as it makes the break higher from this test.
Volume: 532.961K Avg Volume: 609.282K
BUY POINT: $41.88 Volume=900K Target=$48.31 Stop=$39.89
POSITION: QKL FH - June $40c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/lifc.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ADM: Researching date
AMX: Researching date
ATW: Forecast late February or first week of March. Well, nothing has come from ATW this week.
BUCY: Forecast second week of March
BVN: No split announcement but continuing its move up the 10 day EMA.
CEDC: Forecast tentatively early May
CLF: Forecast second week of May
CPRT: Forecast first week of March
EAC: Tentatively forecast mid-March
ECA: Nice test of the breakout
ESV: Researching date
FCX: Testing back with the commodities but holding support at the 90 day MA
JEC: Forecast third week of April
JOYG: Early March
MA: Forecast late April
MM: Researching date.
OTEX: No announcement 2-7-08.
RIG: Forecast mid-May
TKC: Tentatively forecast mid-April
STLD: Late April
UPL: No announcement but holding up at near support as it tests its run.
VIVO: Researching date.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 03/07/2008
WFT (Weatherford International--$69.99; -0.42; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wft.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-25-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. WFT is coming off a test of the 50 day EMA (66.05) on Tuesday when it tapped at that level and rebounded. Volume rose as it continued higher Wednesday and tried to run higher Thursday. It has formed the right shoulder to a 10 week accumulation pattern. Looking for a strong break higher on continued rising volume to enter the play.
Volume: 4.815M Avg Volume: 4.762M
BUY POINT: $71.68 Volume=6.5M Target=$82.45 Stop=$67.77
POSITION: WFT EN - May $70c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wft.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 03/05/2008
VIVO (Meridian Biosciences--$33.06; -0.77; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vivo.html
EARNINGS: Announced mid-February
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Faded back further Thursday on rising but still low volume. Very nice pattern and looking for it to show a break higher on rising trade before we step in, but have to like this pattern. To recap: Excellent volume the past two weeks as VIVO bounced up off the 50 day EMA (32.50) and then volume faded as it tested slightly lower to the rising 10 day EMA (33.92). When it go there volume jumped Tuesday. This is part of a larger 5 month ascending base setting VIVO up for a breakout to a new all-time high. Very nice.
Volume: 312.8K Avg Volume: 372.658K
BUY POINT: $35.22 Volume=550K Target=$40.95 Stop=$33.25
POSITION: ZUG GG - July $35c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vivo.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/05/2008
MUR (Murphy Oil--$81.80; -2.13; optionable): Oil and gas refining, marketing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mur.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-30-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Tried to run higher Thursday but turned over and gave back some gain on a sharp rise in volume. Still well above the 10 day EMA (81.06) and looking for it to hold over that level and then give us a buy on a bounce back up. To recap: Starting to break higher from a week of lateral movement that formed a handle to the 9 week base. The base used the 200 day SMA (69) as support, showing that the big money was not abandoning it at that point. The break higher Wednesday was on lower volume; want to see that improve as it continues the break higher on toward a new all-time high after setting the foundation with this base.
Volume: 2.073M Avg Volume: 1.503M
BUY POINT: $84.32 Volume=2.3M Target=$96.95 Stop=$80.78
POSITION: MUR GQ - July $85c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mur.html
Play Date: 03/04/2008
DNR (Denbury Resources--$31.97; -0.58; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dnr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Lost some ground Thursday on very low, below average volume. DNR is continuing its lateral move over the 10 day EMA, and like the way it held up as the market sold. Ready to move in as it moves up. To recap: Big volume Tuesday as DNR held the 10 day EMA (31.50) on the low as it continues working on the week long handle to its 8 week base. Very nice rest stop as DNR pauses to set up for a new breakout to a new high. Excellent set up and just waiting for it to make the break higher on continued strong volume.
Volume: 1.851M Avg Volume: 2.178M
BUY POINT: $33.11 Volume=3M Target=$39.75 Stop=$31.24
POSITION: DNR FZ - June $32.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dnr.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/05/2008
DRS (DRS Technologies--$58.49; +0.64; optionable): Aerospace/defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drs.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-8-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong volume surge and a good price move Thursday in a weak market. Sold off the high at 59.27 so we waited to see how it continues on Friday. If it continues we move in. To recap: Nice volume surge Wednesday as DRS headed toward the breakout from a nicely formed 13 week base formed to set the foundation for the next run higher. DRS hit a new high in December and needed to work off the froth. This base has done that and with money flow surging higher ahead of the price it looks as if DRS is ready to follow it higher. Nice. One of the sectors we note looks good.
Volume: 973.164K Avg Volume: 481.568K
BUY POINT: New: On a continued move higher (orig. $58.08) Volume=700K Target=$66.85 Stop=$56.22
POSITION: DRS FK - June $55c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/drs.html
CONTINUING DOWNSIDE PLAYS: Still in position to fall and room to do so as well.
Play Date: 03/05/2008
ARG (Airgas--$46.60; -0.46; optionable): Industrial equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/arg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-28-08
STATUS: Put. Modest loss after tapping at the 50 day SMA again on the high. Low volume; need to see some stronger trade as it breaks lower. Still looks ready to make the move lower. To recap: Broke down through the 200 day SMA (47.83) Tuesday, continuing a three day selloff on sharply higher, above average volume. It stalled out at the July peak and rolled over. Wednesday it rebounded to test the 200 day, moving up on low volume. That typically shows just a relief move and we are looking for a turn back down to give us a buy point for the continued mover lower. A move to the target lands a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 406.1K Avg Volume: 733.952K
BUY POINT: $46.24 Volume=750K Target=$43.15 Stop=$47.69
POSITION: ARG PJ - Apr. $50p (-64 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/arg.html
Play Date: 03/06/2008
PRE (Partnerre Ltd.--$75.64; +0.05; optionable): P&C Insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pre.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-4-08
STATUS: Put. Started to sell Thursday but then rebounded upside only to close flat. Still in a parabolic pattern and still looks ready to fall. To recap: PRE has formed a broad umbrella top the past 4.5 months. It broke below the 200 day SMA (now at 77.88), rebounded but stalled out and rolled back over. It tried to hold at the 200 day to end February , but it broke lower. Monday and Tuesday it tried to bounce off some support at 76, but Wednesday it rolled over and sold through that level. Ready to move in as PRE continues lower and follows some tanking money flow. A move to the target lands a 55%ish gain.
Volume: 553.1K Avg Volume: 609.745K
BUY POINT: $75.38 Volume=625K Target=$72.21 Stop=$76.65
POSITION: PRE PQ - Apr. $75p (-42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pre.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
