stock split, stock research

Begin Part 4 of 4

WATCHLISTS:

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS WATCHLIST: AROW, BMS, BRL, CTAS, DRI, IFIN, LSTR, MRBK, and STU.

BER ($54.80; +0.30): Researching a new announcement date. Quite erratic. BER made a big bounce from the 18 day (53.54), but volume was not that great, and it crashed back, although it is currently holding the 10 day (54.22). We will see if it can settle down and show a pattern.

EXPD ($57.45; +2.93): EXPD has found strength. After moving over the 200 day MVA (54.98), Friday it blasted over the 50 day MVA (55.98), moving on very strong volume (928,000; average 363,500). The recent high is ahead at 61.30, but we will see if EXPD sets up something now for an upside play, as any remaining put positions are stopped out.

GTK ($53.99; +0.65): Working on a date. Not that strong a breakout, and after the highs volume doji Thursday and the low volume jump Friday, looks like a drop back toward the prior highs (51.50, near the short-term MVA's - 10 day at 52.02).

DRS ($40.00; 0.00): Another doji Friday after having tried a move up (hit 40.69). We will see if DRS can hold the short-term MVA's (38.84), but the recent lows are at 38. For positions the aggressive can play a move over 41 on volume of 270,000, with stock and/or June $35 calls to buy (DRS FG). The break over the recent high is 43.20.

XL ($94.55; -0.71): Working on an announcement date, but are looking at a board meeting the first week in April. Very erratic at this point, but after pulling back hard from an intraday high Wednesday, XL is holding its 10 day MVA (94.15), falling Friday on continued low volume (down to 475,100; average 879,400). We will see if it can hold up here at 94, and then make a strong move back up.

PDCO ($40.55; -0.02): Researching a date. Has been a bit erratic, but is holding the 50 day MVA (40.03), Friday with a 'shooting star' doji on continued strong volume (down to 300,600; average 253,300). We were expecting a better move on the last bounce, but got an immediate retreat. Looking for another bounce that it can hold, and take out its high at 42.05 (late December). Targeting 48 on a move to a new high. The bounce play is a move over 41.50 on continued strong volume, with stock and/or July $40 calls to buy (DOU GH - low open interest).

MUR ($86.23; +0.05): Forecast to announce a split 4-24-02 after the close, with earnings. Working on a new date. MUR has shot up in recent sessions, but the move has slowed, Friday showing a second consecutive doji. With the high volume (371,100; average 253,600) doji, looks like a test back. We will look for MUR to hold the 10 day MVA (84) or highs in its recent range at 85. From there we can look at aggressive positions, ultimately watching for a move over the high of 87.85.

ESI ($44.94; +0.89): Working on a date. Continued its move up out of its pattern, but volume was not what we were looking for (up today to 132,900; average 138,900). The high (from July) is 46.25, and ESI looks like it will pull back before making a run on that level. If ESI can hold the 10 day at 43.50 (recent highs at 44), we will look for a move over 44.50 on volume of 200,000, with stock and/or July $40 calls to buy (ESI GH - no open interest as yet).

DHI ($40.58; +0.68): Researching a new date. Broke out nicely Tuesday, but DHI has only been able to edge up the last few sessions, as volume steadily falls (1.1 million Friday; average 1.08 million). Targeting 45, but with the recent weak moves we could see a test back before a continuation of the move (10 day MVA at 38.47), recent highs at 38. If we get a test back on lower volume that holds 38, we can look for another strong move back over 39 with volume in the 1.5 million range, with stock and/or May $35 calls to buy (DHI EG).

SLM ($93.60; +0.85): Researching a new date, and looking at a board meeting that our research shows will be in early April. Still holding up after its solid January and early February move. Friday SLM bounced up again from the 10 day (92.38), with above average volume (782,500; average 766,000). We were looking for it to set up a bit better, but the aggressive can look at a move over 94.35 on volume of 1 million, with stock and/or July $90 calls to buy (SLM GR). Target is 105, but it needs a strong move, as it is battling an upper channel trendline at the breakout point.

PRE SPLITS WATCHLIST:

NJR ($46.42; +0.83): Splits 3:2 effective March 4. Good rebound going into the split! Post-split we will see if it can continue the strength, with the recent high at 46.74. The aggressive can look at a move over that level (31.16 post-split). Stock only.

DF ($72.89; +1.22): Splits 2:1 effective 4-25-02. Has made a strong surge, but is slowing down and looks like it needs to pull back and rest. Friday DF moved up again, but volume was very low at 220,800 (average 564,500). Considering taking profits on short-term positions, and looking for the 10 day MVA (70.46) to hold.

WLP ($121.50; -0.12): Announced a 2:1 split, effective March 15. Gapped below the 50 day (122.70) Wednesday, and has now shown three consecutive dojis under that level. We will see if it can bounce back, but on a drop through 120 on increased volume (638,800; average 559,000), we can look at a put play with April $130 puts to buy (WLP PF).

WERN ($24.24; +0.56): Splits 4:3 on or about March 15. Dropped back hard Thursday, making a small bounce Friday. Weak, and the 200 day is below at 22.44.

CONTINUING CANDIDATES WATCHLIST: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date. These include BBBY, EDS, GNSS, GOSHA, JCI, LLL, PII, STJ, TGIC and THQI.

APPB ($35.90; -0.18): Was not ready to drop again and give a new put play, instead running hard through the 50 day (34.72) this week. Still holding up, but we expect a bit of a retreat, and will see where it catches support.

BBY ($68.03; +0.63): After hitting the put buy point and dropping, BBY has taken a bit of a bounce, but it could not take out its 10 day MVA (68.97) Thursday, and could not reach up that high Friday, showing a doji. Still riding positions, and we will see if it can continue down toward the target of 63.

DIAN ($60.04; -1.81): Dropped back again, unable to hold the 18 day MVA (61.43). It tapped near the 50 day (58.29) at its low of 58.96, and volume was light (159,800; average 284,000), so we will look for DIAN to hold the 50 day and try and set up a bounce. It has support from January-February consolidation levels at the 50 day as well.

ETH ($40.77; +0.24): Has made a nice little run, but with the loose doji on lighter volume (188,900; average 207,000), testing back to 39.60 intraday. We will look for a gentle pullback and see if it can hold the 40 range (50 day MVA at 38.65).

FLIR ($54.36; -0.17): After the great move on the breakout test, FLIR has pulled back a bit, but Friday showed some good action as it tapped back to its 10 day MVA at its low of 52.55, then bounced back up for a 'hammer' doji with increased, strong volume of 1.05 million (average 382,500). We will look for a nice bounce in a continued rally that could make it to our target of 58. Aggressive on a move over 55 from here on continued strong volume, with April $50 calls to buy (FFQ DJ) for a quick bounce play.

INVN ($40.10; +0.99): No announcement, but INVN is holding over its short-term MVA's (38.74). Volume continues to be very weak, so we continue to look for a move over 42.74 on above average volume (2.9 million), with stock and/or July $40 calls to buy (FQQ GH).

LLL ($111.28; +1.43): LLL has made a great run on its breakout from a cup (at 98). It has ridden up its 10 day MVA (109.73), and after hitting an intraday high at 114.40, has formed a pennant. LLL moved up from the 10 day today, with volume low at 482,700 (average 580,000). The aggressive can look at a move over 112.90, with volume of 600,000, with stock and/or July $105 calls to buy (LLL GA - low open interest).

MI ($61.17; +0.18): Holding over support (50 day and short-term MVA's at 60.51-60.71), showing another doji today after dipping back to 60.25 intraday. In the right shoulder of a reverse head and shoulders formed since early January. The aggressive play is 61.50 on volume of 540,000, with stock and/or June $55 calls to buy (MI FK - low open interest).

RYL ($91.40; +2.07): Great breakout Monday and Tuesday, and continued up today, although we need to be careful here with short-term positions as volume dipped back below the average (413,600; average 430,000). Past the target now, and support is at the 10 day (with the upper channel), at 86.

TGH ($71.57; -0.13): Has set up nicely, but suddenly dropped back Wednesday, and after giving up the 50 day MVA (72.12), Friday showed a doji under that level. There is support at 70, but we will see if it can recover back through the 50 day.

THC ($58.15; +0.40): After tapping down close to the target (the 200 day at 56.56) Thursday, THC gapped up but then retreated on continued strong volume (3.38 million; average 1.9 million). Does not look like it wants to rebound, but are protecting positions, looking for a move to the target.

YUM ($59.15; +0.02): Good breakout, but is showing topping signs shy of our target of 62. After pulling back from 60 at its high (59.95) Thursday on good volume, YUM did the same thing today (high of 59.88) with bigger volume (999,800; average 779,600). The action indicates a pullback, and YUM on this breakout took out its upper channel trendline, so we will be careful with positions on a drop back - moving stops up just below the highs in its former consolidation, at 56. If it can hold the 10 day MVA (57.50), we will look to continue to ride.

POST SPLITS WATCHLIST: Watching BSYS, CHS and HTLD. CHBS made a solid move back down, and SONC rebounded up again. ACS has flown, and we will see if it pulls back to earth to set something up.

BLL ($42.84; +0.55): Split 2:1 effective February 25. Continues to hold right at the 10 day MVA (42.33), which is with its upper channel trendline. Volume dipped way back Friday as the stock pushed up slightly (227,900; average 298,000). Holding pretty strong, but again, with positions we are carefully watching for a drop back, and after its run that could be severe. The action here (the 18 day is at 41.46), and with weakness we will exit.

VAR ($41.25; +0.87): Split 2:1 on 1-16-02. After the Thursday drop, VAR started down hard in the first hour Friday, hitting all the way to 38.55 (former highs before the recent breakout; 50 day MVA at 37.87) before a smart rebound. Quite a move back up, closing with a gain on volume that increased to 690,200 (average 374,500). An aggressive play from here, but on a move up we can look at a continued run toward our target 46. On a move over 41.50 (high is 42.30) with continued strong volume, stock and/or May $37.50 calls to buy (VAR EU).

XRAY ($33.28; +0.11): Split 3:2 effective February 1. Dipped out of its lateral consolidation Thursday, but held the 50 day (33.02) and showed a loose doji Friday over that support. Volume continued in its recent range (327,200; average 296,000). If it can hold, the aggressive can play a bounce over the short-term MVA's (33.53) on continued strong volume, with stock and/or July $30 calls to buy (RHE GF - very low open interest).

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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