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world stock market, us stock market
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS: The market is in full selling right now so not playing new downside at this juncture but instead looking for upside positions to move into if they can hold up as DJ30, SP500 test their January lows.
Upside:
Play Date: 03/08/2008
FDP (Fresh Del Monte Produce--$34.23; +0.44; optionable): Food, beverages
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdp.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-26-08
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Nice 4.5 month base has set up, making higher and higher lows up the 90 day MA (32), making a higher low last week at the 18 day EMA (33.50). There is a constant top at 36, and FDP is building pressure for the breakout from below with those higher and higher lows. Strong money flow broke out ahead of the stock and we are looking for FDP to follow it on up. Did well in the last recession and it is set up to do well here.
Volume: 417.3K Avg Volume: 660.358K
BUY POINT: $36.24 Volume=1M Target=$41.95 Stop=$33.98
POSITION: FDP FG - June 35c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fdp.html
Play Date: 03/08/2008
GGB (Gerdau--$30.92; -0.62; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/ggb.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-13-08
STATUS: Test breakout. As with many steel stocks GGB enjoyed a strong run in February, breaking to an all-time new high and running up to 34.25, clearing a 15 week double bottom along the way. It spent the past week testing that breakout, coming back to the 18 day EMA (31) Friday, showing a rising star doji at that point. That hold of near support is also above the highs in the base, a good point for new buys as it takes back off to the upside from those levels and resumes its new high run. Very solid and a top rated stock in terms of earnings grown and technical position.
Volume: 3.473M Avg Volume: 3.157M
BUY POINT: $32.88 Volume=4.8M Target=$39.45 Stop=$30.58
POSITION: GGB FF - June $30c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ggb.html
Play Date: 03/08/2008
HOS (Hormbeck Offshore Services--$45.39; -0.45; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hos.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-21-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A nice 17 week base has formed as part of a larger 7.5 month pattern. Used the 200 day SMA at 41 as support during January and February, forming the second bottom of the pattern. It surged off the 200 day SMA on the earnings, clearing to a new high. It came back to test in the market selling, but held near support at the 18 day EMA, tapping at that level on the Friday low (44.72). Nice low volume test is setting up the next break higher, and we are just waiting for that move to show itself and give us the buy. A top stock in terms of earnings growth and technical pattern. A shipping stock that is solid despite world economic worries. As with the trucking companies, that tells us something about just how bad the recession is and how far along we are in it. If these stocks break higher then the recession is likely not that deep.
Volume: 483.906K Avg Volume: 611.086K
BUY POINT: $46.88 Volume=800K Target=$53.95 Stop=$44.52
POSITION: HOS FI - June $45c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hos.html
Play Date: 03/08/2008
JBHT (JB Hunt Transportation--$28.60; +0.37; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jbht.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-29-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Taking another look at JBHT because it continues to set up a good pattern despite the selling market and the continuing bad economic news that you would presume would set the transportation stocks on their rears and not too gently at that. Instead JBHT is using the selling in the market to form the handle to its 8 month base, holding above the 50 day EMA (28.22) on the Friday close. Just being patient to let it break higher and show us the buy point.
Volume: 2.398M Avg Volume: 2.445M
BUY POINT: $29.65 Volume=3.5M Target=$35.55 Stop=$28.11
POSITION: JHQ EF - May $30c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jbht.html
Play Date: 03/08/2008
PQ (Petroquest Energy--$15.55; -0.33; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pq.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-20-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice strong run through February, breaking out from a 9 month base on the way. It is now testing that breakout, coming back last week on lower and lower, below average volume as it made the test, holding above the pattern and maintaining its breakout. Looking for PQ to hold the test in this general area and then make the next break higher. That is our buy point and want to see volume kick up as it makes its move. Yet another stock that has high earnings growth rates to match its solid technical pattern.
Volume: 752.325K Avg Volume: 760.644K
BUY POINT: $16.12 Volume=1.1M Target=$19.65 Stop=$15.05
POSITION: PQ GC - July $15c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pq.html
Play Date: 03/08/2008
XIDE (Exide Tech--$11.31; +0.54; optionable): Acid batteries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xide.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-7-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Strong breakout in early February from a 10 month base, gapping higher on strong volume. It then moved laterally over the 18 day EMA (10.45) the past four weeks, moving laterally with the market as it tested the breakout, but was strong enough that it did not give up any ground. Very nice. It started to break higher Wednesday on huge trade, struggled Thursday as the market was whacked, but sold on very light trade and held at the 10 day EMA. Friday it was back up on very strong volume. Looks ready to continue its run. Very strong.
Volume: 1.146M Avg Volume: 623.75K
BUY POINT: $11.53 Volume=800K Target=$14.45 Stop=$10.72
POSITION: FRU FB - June $10c (70 delta, 101 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/xide.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/07/2008
GILD (Gilead Sciences--$48.70; +0.89; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gild.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-23-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Tapped at the 10 day EMA on the low and broke higher on rising trade. Could have entered on Friday but wanted to see what kind of downside Monday brings in the market. A big of testing won't hurt at all, but if it continues higher from Friday it is still a buy. To recap: GILD broke higher from a 7 week double bottom to start March, moving higher to end February and start this month on strong volume. It peaked out at 50 on Wednesday and faded, falling again Thursday but on much lower, below average volume. Nice breakout and we are going to let it make the test down near the 10 day EMA (47) and pick it up as it bounces off that level. A picture of strength in a weak market, and after this test of the break higher it will be a good buy as that gives the market time to recover.
Volume: 10.403M Avg Volume: 9.139M
BUY POINT: On a continued move higher (orig. Test 47 then $47.22 on the way back up) Volume=11M Target=$55.45 Stop=$46.78
POSITION: GDQ EW - May $47.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gild.html
Play Date: 03/05/2008
IMCL (Imclone--$44.71; -0.67; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imcl.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-31-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Fell to the 10 day EMA on the Friday close on continued below average volume. Still working on the handle as it sets up for the breakout move. To recap: Nice above average volume Wednesday as IMCL broke higher from a weeklong lateral handle, starting IMCL's move out of its 5 month base and on toward a 3 year high. This is the 'Martha Stewart' stock. Looks ready to clean up a bit.
Volume: 1.36M Avg Volume: 1.351M
BUY POINT: $46.61 Volume=1.5M Target=$54.94 Stop=$44.08
POSITION: QCI EI - May $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/imcl.html
Play Date: 03/07/2008
LIFC (Lifecell--$40.55; +0.32; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lifc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-27-08
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Very solid action to end the week, gapping lower on the weak market open Friday, holding the 18 day EMA on that move and then bouncing for a gain on a sharp jump in volume. Like the movement and just waiting for a break higher on that continued strong volume to give us the buy point. To recap: LIFC broke higher just ahead of and after its earnings, moving off the 200 day SMA at 37.25 on strong volume. It ran into the 90 day MA (41.52) on that recovery, and then started to work laterally in a tight range over the 50 day EMA (40.11). As it works laterally money flow is surging higher, showing continued buying as it consolidates. Looking for some strong volume as it makes the break higher from this test.
Volume: 793.197K Avg Volume: 607.284K
BUY POINT: $41.88 Volume=900K Target=$48.31 Stop=$39.89
POSITION: QKL FH - June $40c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/lifc.html
Play Date: 03/07/2008
XTO (XTO Energy--$60.17; -0.66; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-12-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Excellent action to end the week, gapping down Friday but tapping the 18 day EMA (59.26) on the low and rebounding for modest loss. Lower, below average volume as it continued its tetst from that initial breakout and run higher. Excellent set up for the next move upside. To recap: Made us some great money on its breakout run, and now it is making the test we wanted, coming back to the 10 day EMA (60.68), coming to rest there on the Thursday close on much lower, below average volume. Watching to see if XTO holds at this level and then makes the next break higher in its breakout run. This is the second test of the 10 day EMA after the breakout. When making powerful runs stocks tend to bounce 4 to 5 times off the 10 or 18 day EMA. XTO is one of the stocks that is in a bull market despite the market overall, and it is strong. That means it still has plenty of upside ahead of it.
Volume: 5.214M Avg Volume: 5.973M
BUY POINT: $61.88 Volume=6.2M Target=$70.95 Stop=$60.39
POSITION: XTO HL - Aug. $60c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xto.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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