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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS: Still looking for an upside bounce after this selling, and these stocks held well during the market selling and are in good position to rebound and at least make us some nice trades.
Upside:
Play Date: 03/10/2008
CHK (Chesapeake Energy--$44.09; -0.65; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-21-08
STATUS: Breakout test. CHK surged higher in early February, breaking out from a 12 week base and rallying to 47 on the initial run. It peaked that first move in late February and slid laterally into March. The past three sessions it faded back to the 18 day EMA (44.23) on lower, below average volume. Looking for CHK to hold at this general level and then rebounding on a solid jump in volume to give us the entry point.
Volume: 7.244M Avg Volume: 8.938M
BUY POINT: $45.11 Volume=13M Target=$50.95 Stop=$43.68
POSITION: CHK GI - July $45c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/chk.html
Play Date: 03/10/2008
DNA (Genentech--$78.21; -1.18; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dna.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-14-08
STATUS: Test breakout. DNA reported approval of Avastin for breast cancer use and it shot higher - twice. It has come back on low volume the past three sessions, holding near support at the 10 day EMA (78). In a weak market it is a stock that is getting money. Want to see it hold here and rebound on rising trade to show us the buyers are back. That is when we move in.
Volume: 3.782M Avg Volume: 4.105M
BUY POINT: $80.05 Volume=6M Target=$90.00 Stop=$77.78
POSITION: DWN FP - June $80c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dna.html
Play Date: 03/10/2008
ODFL (Old Dominion Freight Line--$28.20; -0.17; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/odfl.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-31-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Working on a five week handle to its 8 month base. Strong surge to end January and through mid-February, forming the right side of the base. It has slid back to test the 50 day EMA (27.19), bouncing off that level, showing some better volume as it makes the attempts. Trucking is improving in a weak market and economy; an enigma. Looking for a strong volume break upside to give us a nice run. Like tha tit can cover ground quickly; what you would expect from a truck line, huh?
Volume: 504.293K Avg Volume: 560.114K
BUY POINT: $29.55 Volume=840K Target=$35.45 Stop=$27.48
POSITION: QPS GF - July $30c (51 delta, 80 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/odfl.html
Play Date: 03/10/2008
UPL (Ultra Petroleum--$74.59; -0.83; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/upl.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-19-08
STATUS: Test breakout. UPL is coming back to the 50 day EMA (73.33), testing the early February breakout from a 15 week base. Strong run and a nice easy pullback toward key support. Going to let it make the full test of that level and then grab it as it rebounds on some stronger volume.
Volume: 711.848K Avg Volume: 1.309M
BUY POINT: $75.48 Volume=1.6M Target=$84.95 Stop=$73.21
POSITION: UPL FO - June $75c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/upl.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/08/2008
FDP (Fresh Del Monte Produce--$33.81; -0.42; optionable): Food, beverages
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdp.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-26-08
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Took a day off Monday still holding the 18 day EMA on the low. Volume moved up to average on the session, just more work in setting up the break higher. Letting it set up and show the break. To recap: Nice 4.5 month base has set up, making higher and higher lows up the 90 day MA (32), making a higher low last week at the 18 day EMA (33.50). There is a constant top at 36, and FDP is building pressure for the breakout from below with those higher and higher lows. Strong money flow broke out ahead of the stock and we are looking for FDP to follow it on up. Did well in the last recession and it is set up to do well here.
Volume: 736.1K Avg Volume: 660.358K
BUY POINT: $36.24 Volume=1M Target=$41.95 Stop=$33.98
POSITION: FDP FG - June 35c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fdp.html
Play Date: 03/05/2008
IMCL (Imclone--$43.55; -1.16; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imcl.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-31-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Reached all the way down to the 50 day SMA on the low at 42 and then rebounded to recoup much of the loss, holding near the 18 day EMA on the close. Good shakeout action and looking for a continued rebound to show us the breakout move. To recap: Nice above average volume Wednesday as IMCL broke higher from a weeklong lateral handle, starting IMCL's move out of its 5 month base and on toward a 3 year high. This is the 'Martha Stewart' stock. Looks ready to clean up a bit.
Volume: 2.537M Avg Volume: 1.351M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $44.95 (Breakout: $46.61) Volume=1.5M Target=$54.94 Stop=$44.08
POSITION: QCI EI - May $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/imcl.html
Play Date: 03/08/2008
PQ (Petroquest Energy--$15.37; -0.18; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pq.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-20-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Still testing, tapping at the 18 day EMA (15.11) on the Monday low and rebounding for a modest loss on rising, above average volume. Held the December highs and still looks solid for the next break higher to continue the breakout run. Excellent set up. To recap: Nice strong run through February, breaking out from a 9 month base on the way. It is now testing that breakout, coming back last week on lower and lower, below average volume as it made the test, holding above the pattern and maintaining its breakout. Looking for PQ to hold the test in this general area and then make the next break higher. That is our buy point and want to see volume kick up as it makes its move. Yet another stock that has high earnings growth rates to match its solid technical pattern.
Volume: 1.02M Avg Volume: 760.644K
BUY POINT: $16.12 Volume=1.1M Target=$19.65 Stop=$15.05
POSITION: PQ GC - July $15c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pq.html
Play Date: 03/08/2008
XIDE (Exide Tech--$10.71; -0.60; optionable): Acid batteries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xide.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-7-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Gave back the Friday bounce, coming back toward the 18 day EMA (10.48) on lower, below average volume. Not bad for a weak market. Just needs a breather in the market to make its next break higher. To recap: Strong breakout in early February from a 10 month base, gapping higher on strong volume. It then moved laterally over the 18 day EMA (10.45) the past four weeks, moving laterally with the market as it tested the breakout, but was strong enough that it did not give up any ground. Very nice. It started to break higher Wednesday on huge trade, struggled Thursday as the market was whacked, but sold on very light trade and held at the 10 day EMA. Friday it was back up on very strong volume. Looks ready to continue its run. Very strong.
Volume: 621.271K Avg Volume: 623.75K
BUY POINT: $11.53 Volume=800K Target=$14.45 Stop=$10.72
POSITION: FRU FB - June $10c (70 delta, 101 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/xide.html
Play Date: 03/07/2008
XTO (XTO Energy--$58.83; -1.34; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-12-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Still testing back on low, below average volume, coming back from that strong February run to 64. Would like to see it hold around 58 and then make the next bounce higher; a selloff in the market early Tuesday would do that. To recap: Made us some great money on its breakout run, and now it is making the test we wanted, coming back to the 10 day EMA (60.68), coming to rest there on the Thursday close on much lower, below average volume. Watching to see if XTO holds at this level and then makes the next break higher in its breakout run. This is the second test of the 10 day EMA after the breakout. When making powerful runs stocks tend to bounce 4 to 5 times off the 10 or 18 day EMA. XTO is one of the stocks that is in a bull market despite the market overall, and it is strong. That means it still has plenty of upside ahead of it.
Volume: 5.366M Avg Volume: 5.973M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $60.48 (orig. $61.88) Volume=6.2M Target=$70.95 Stop=$60.39
POSITION: XTO HL - Aug. $60c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xto.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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