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world stock market, us stock market
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS: A group of very strong upside movers.
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 03/11/2008
CLF (Cleveland-Cliffs--$113.81; +8.64; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clf.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-7-08
STATUS: Test breakout/50 day MA. CLF broke sharply higher in early February from a 16 week ascending triangle. Nice strong surge on its earnings. It then tested this month, aggressively selling Thursday to Monday, but holding at the tops of the base and at the 50 day SMA (105.68). Tuesday it bounced on the Fed action. We are looking to ride this momentum higher to take advantage of the bounce off key support levels.
Volume: 1.871M Avg Volume: 1.636M
BUY POINT: $114.24 Volume=2M Target=$125.00 Stop=$111.97
POSITION: CLR DC - Apr. $115c (56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/clf.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 03/11/2008
NBR (Nabors Industries--$32.25; +1.40; optionable): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nbr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-5-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Very nice 9 month base, a classic double bottom. It rallied off the January lows to form the last leg and has spent the past 4 weeks working laterally in a range over the 10 day EMA (31.10), consolidating that move. Tuesday volume moved back above average as NBR broke higher from a higher low, moving up to the top of its range. Looks ready to make the breakout and want to see continued solid volume as it does.
Volume: 6.666M Avg Volume: 5.857M
BUY POINT: $32.57 Volume=8M Target=$37.95 Stop=$31.05
POSITION: NBR FZ - June $32.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nbr.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 03/11/2008
HK (Petrohawk Energy--$18.84; +1.43; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-27-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nicely formed 20 week pattern that started to break to the upside Tuesday toward a 6 year high. Very nice set up for the breakout. Looking for a bit more volume as HK makes its next solid move.
Volume: 2.793M Avg Volume: 2.662M
BUY POINT: $19.05 Volume=4M Target=$21.95 Stop=$17.72
POSITION: HK FW - June $17.50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hk.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ACV: Researching date
ADM: Forecast April
ATW: Nothing from ATW to start March other than a dip on Friday.
BVN: No split announcement but continuing its move up the 10 day EMA.
EAC: Tentatively forecast mid-March
ECA: Nice test of the breakout
ESV: Researching date
FCX: Testing back with the commodities but holding support at the 90 day MA
GGB: Researching date
JEC: Forecast third week of April
JOYG: Early March. Reported strong earnings but no split.
MA: Forecast late April
MM: Researching date.
RIG: Forecast mid-May
TKC: Tentatively forecast mid-April
UPL: No announcement but holding up at near support as it tests its run.
WFT: Tentatively forecast late April
WMS: Researching date.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 03/11/2008
MM (Metal Management--$57.96; +1.74; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mm.html
EARNINGS: 2-6-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Made us some great money in February as MM surged higher, clearing an 18 week double bottom w/handle base. It rallied to 65 on that move and then tested back this month. It is holding at the October high that marks the top of the base as well as the 18 day EMA (57.60), at least on the closes. Reached down to the bottom of the recent range on Tuesday then recovered for a gain on strong, strong volume. Looking to move in as MM continues higher on further solid volume.
Volume: 611.5K Avg Volume: 401.616K
BUY POINT: $58.28 Volume=500K Target=$65.95 Stop=$56.31
POSITION: MM GK - July $55c (74 delta, 288 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mm.html
Play Date: 03/11/2008
TKC (Turkcell--$25.25; +2.86; optionable): Turkish wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tkc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-27-08
STATUS: Double bottom. Taking another run at TKC as it came back the past tow weeks to form the second leg in a 14 week double bottom formed over the 200 day SMA. Strong money flow is surging higher ahead of price and we are looking to move in as TKC continues its break higher.
Volume: 2.56M Avg Volume: 1.523M
BUY POINT: $25.55 Volume=2.1M Target=$29.85 Stop=$23.94
POSITION: TKC GE - July $25c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tkc.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 03/08/2008
GGB (Gerdau--$32.05; +1.88; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/ggb.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-13-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Coming off the test of the breakout, gapping higher Tuesday but on continued low trade. Still looks solid however for the break higher. To recap: As with many steel stocks GGB enjoyed a strong run in February, breaking to an all-time new high and running up to 34.25, clearing a 15 week double bottom along the way. It spent the past week testing that breakout, coming back to the 18 day EMA (31) Friday, showing a rising star doji at that point. That hold of near support is also above the highs in the base, a good point for new buys as it takes back off to the upside from those levels and resumes its new high run. Very solid and a top rated stock in terms of earnings grown and technical position.
Volume: 2.947M Avg Volume: 3.192M
BUY POINT: $32.88 Volume=4.8M Target=$39.45 Stop=$30.58
POSITION: GGB FF - June $30c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ggb.html
Play Date: 03/10/2008
UPL (Ultra Petroleum--$76.91; +2.32; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/upl.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-19-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Breaking higher Tuesday but volume was not quite up to snuff, particularly as UPL stalled at the 10 day EMA. Still solid, still looking to buy as UPL continues the break higher. To recap: UPL is coming back to the 50 day EMA (73.33), testing the early February breakout from a 15 week base. Strong run and a nice easy pullback toward key support. Going to let it make the full test of that level and then grab it as it rebounds on some stronger volume.
Volume: 1.083M Avg Volume: 1.315M
BUY POINT: New: On a continued break higher (orig. $75.48) Volume=1.6M Target=$84.95 Stop=$73.21
POSITION: UPL FO - June $75c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/upl.html
Play Date: 03/08/2008
WMS (Williams Industries--$39.72; +2.54; optionable): Gaming machines, video lottery terminals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wms.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-6-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped higher and continued higher to the close, but just no volume. If it can continue the move Wednesday that shows the buyers still want it and we can move in. To recap: Earnings in early February broke WMS out of a 16 week ascending base, pushing WMS to a new high on strong volume. Solid move higher then the market selling. WMS did not tank, it used the selling come back in an orderly fashion, testing back to the late December and late January highs in the base. Volume started to pick up last week, but it was on the sessions WMS posted a gain. That shows buyers are accumulating the stock, and that has us on the ready for a strong break higher on continued solid volume as our buy point. And yet another stock with strong earnings growth rates to match its strong technical pattern.
Volume: 665.951K Avg Volume: 781.937K
BUY POINT: New: On a continued move higher (orig. $39.31) Volume=1.1M Target=$46.95 Stop=$37.22
POSITION: WMS GH - July $40c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wms.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/10/2008
DNA (Genentech--$79.28; +1.07; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dna.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-14-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Tested the 10 day EMA again on the low and then bounced back up for a gain on rising, average trade. Still set to make the break. To recap: DNA reported approval of Avastin for breast cancer use and it shot higher - twice. It has come back on low volume the past three sessions, holding near support at the 10 day EMA (78). In a weak market it is a stock that is getting money. Want to see it hold here and rebound on rising trade to show us the buyers are back. That is when we move in.
Volume: 4.364M Avg Volume: 4.084M
BUY POINT: $80.05 Volume=6M Target=$90.00 Stop=$77.78
POSITION: DWN FP - June $80c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dna.html
Play Date: 03/07/2008
GILD (Gilead Sciences--$47.25; +1.12; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gild.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-23-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Tapped the 50 day EMA on the low and rebounded for a gain on lower, just below average volume. Nice test and now ready to make the move. To recap: GILD broke higher from a 7 week double bottom to start March, moving higher to end February and start this month on strong volume. It peaked out at 50 on Wednesday and faded, falling again Thursday but on much lower, below average volume. Nice breakout and we are going to let it make the test down near the 10 day EMA (47) and pick it up as it bounces off that level. A picture of strength in a weak market, and after this test of the break higher it will be a good buy as that gives the market time to recover.
Volume: 9.161M Avg Volume: 9.336M
BUY POINT: On a continued move higher (orig. Test 47 then $47.22 on the way back up) Volume=11M Target=$55.45 Stop=$46.78
POSITION: GDQ EW - May $47.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gild.html
Play Date: 03/07/2008
XTO (XTO Energy--$61.08; +2.25; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-12-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Tested the 18 day EMA and a bit lower on Monday, then reversed field with the market Tuesday on slightly better but still below average volume. Need to see some better trade as XTO continues higher and moves through the buy point. To recap: Made us some great money on its breakout run, and now it is making the test we wanted, coming back to the 10 day EMA (60.68), coming to rest there on the Thursday close on much lower, below average volume. Watching to see if XTO holds at this level and then makes the next break higher in its breakout run. This is the second test of the 10 day EMA after the breakout. When making powerful runs stocks tend to bounce 4 to 5 times off the 10 or 18 day EMA. XTO is one of the stocks that is in a bull market despite the market overall, and it is strong. That means it still has plenty of upside ahead of it.
Volume: 5.628M Avg Volume: 6.047M
BUY POINT: $61.88 Volume=6.2M Target=$70.95 Stop=$60.39
POSITION: XTO HL - Aug. $60c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xto.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/05/2008
DRS (DRS Technologies--$57.07; +1.05; optionable): Aerospace/defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drs.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-8-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Has made a nice lower volume test of the 18 day EMA and then rebounded Tuesday. It is set to make the move, just has to show it along with some good volume accompaniment. To recap: Nice volume surge Wednesday as DRS headed toward the breakout from a nicely formed 13 week base formed to set the foundation for the next run higher. DRS hit a new high in December and needed to work off the froth. This base has done that and with money flow surging higher ahead of the price it looks as if DRS is ready to follow it higher. Nice. One of the sectors we note looks good.
Volume: 394.77K Avg Volume: 504.179K
BUY POINT: $58.08 Volume=700K Target=$66.85 Stop=$56.22
POSITION: DRS FK - June $55c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/drs.html
Play Date: 03/08/2008
HOS (Hormbeck Offshore Services--$45.01; +0.81; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hos.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-21-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Holding near the 18 day EMA (44.62), checking up after some higher volume selling Monday. Still in a nice handle, still looking for the break higher. To recap: A nice 17 week base has formed as part of a larger 7.5 month pattern. Used the 200 day SMA at 41 as support during January and February, forming the second bottom of the pattern. It surged off the 200 day SMA on the earnings, clearing to a new high. It came back to test in the market selling, but held near support at the 18 day EMA, tapping at that level on the Friday low (44.72). Nice low volume test is setting up the next break higher, and we are just waiting for that move to show itself and give us the buy. A top stock in terms of earnings growth and technical pattern. A shipping stock that is solid despite world economic worries. As with the trucking companies, that tells us something about just how bad the recession is and how far along we are in it. If these stocks break higher then the recession is likely not that deep.
Volume: 627.7K Avg Volume: 615.974K
BUY POINT: $46.88 Volume=800K Target=$53.95 Stop=$44.52
POSITION: HOS FI - June $45c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hos.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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