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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Post-Splits:
Play Date: 03/12/2008
NTES (Netease.com--$20.44; -0.05; optionable): Chinese online entertainment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntes.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-20-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Looks as if this could be interesting as well. Nice low volume fade to the 18 day EMA (20.24) as NTES forms a nice handle to its 22 week base. This is part of a large 2 year cup base that is setting up a for a nice breakout.
Volume: 730.85K Avg Volume: 1.074M
BUY POINT: $21.05 Volume=1.5M Target=$25.31 Stop=$19.65
POSITION: NQG FD - June $20c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ntes.html
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 03/12/2008
BNI (Burlington Northern--$90.83; -0.04; optionable): Railroads
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bni.html
EARNINGS: 4-29-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Solid volume the past week as trade swells in the last part of the handle, indicating a breakout move is coming. Indeed, BNI tried the move Wednesday but faded back to flat with the market, still in its nicely formed 9 month base. Great pattern and just crossing 90; it will likely make a move to 100. We want to capture that move, but with this pattern it can give us more. We will take what we can get out of it and that may be just to 100 but could be much more as the transportation stocks, whether trucking (ODFL) or rails are coming to life. As we noted before, this is an indication the economy is not going to head into a long hibernation.
Volume: 3.934M Avg Volume: 3.296M
BUY POINT: $91.42 Volume=4.5M Target=$99.95 Stop=$88.48
POSITION: BNI GR - July $90c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bni.html
New Downside Plays:
Play Date: 03/12/2008
DIA (Diamonds Trust (DJ30 EFT)--$121.40; -0.66; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dia.html
STATUS: Put. DIA bounced sharply Tuesday, turning from a certain test of the January low (115.80) on the FOMC news. It tracked the Dow Wednesday, moving through the 18 day EMA on the high and then reversing to close below the 10 day EMA (121.66). Not a ton of volume so it was no clear reversal. If the market starts soft we don't want to move in too quickly but give it time to recover. If it does then we wait and see if it turns back over and falls; that is a clearer indication it is going to head lower and make that test of the January low. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 13.041M Avg Volume: 16.47M
BUY POINT: $121.09 Volume=17M Target=$117.55 Stop=$122.65
POSITION: DAW PR - Apr. $122p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dia.html
Play Date: 03/12/2008
IWM (Ishares Russell 2000--$66.52; -0.78; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iwm.html
STATUS: Put. Tracking the Russell 2000 small caps, IWM rallied to the 18 day EMA (68.17) on the Wednesday high and then rolled over to close below the 10 day EMA and at the session low. This is the canary for the economy, and it was one of the biggest losers after the rush higher on the FOMC Taffy announcement. Looking to play this the same was as with the DIA puts, i.e. if it opens softer waiting for a bounce and then moving in when that bounce fails.
Volume: 92.579M Avg Volume: 99.437M
BUY POINT: $66.38 Volume=100M Target=$64.04 Stop=$67.48
POSITION: DIW PO - Apr. $67p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/iwm.html
Play Date: 03/12/2008
QID (QQQ Proshares UltraShort ETF--$53.38; +1.03; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qid.html
STATUS: As NASDAQ 100 reversed at near resistance and turned lower we looked at the QID again in case QQQQ fails at this near resistance. If things turn lower early we want to be a bit coy as with DIA and IWM unless things have turned ugly in the morning.
Volume: 44.318M Avg Volume: 34.345M
BUY POINT: $53.45 Volume=50M Target=$59.65 Stop=$51.55
POSITION: QID DA - Apr. $53c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/qid.html
Play Date: 03/12/2008
SDS (UltraShort S&P500 ETF--$66.19; +0.99; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sds.html
STATUS: Same idea as QID as SP500 rallied to the 18 day EMA then rolled over. Want to play this one the same way.
Volume: 30.704M Avg Volume: 23.885M
BUY POINT: $66.12 Volume=30M Target=$72.50 Stop=$63.77
POSITION: SDS DN - Apr. $65c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sds.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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