|
|
us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/12/2008
BNI (Burlington Northern--$90.83; -0.04; optionable): Railroads
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bni.html
EARNINGS: 4-29-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Solid volume the past week as trade swells in the last part of the handle, indicating a breakout move is coming. Indeed, BNI tried the move Wednesday but faded back to flat with the market, still in its nicely formed 9 month base. Great pattern and just crossing 90; it will likely make a move to 100. We want to capture that move, but with this pattern it can give us more. We will take what we can get out of it and that may be just to 100 but could be much more as the transportation stocks, whether trucking (ODFL) or rails are coming to life. As we noted before, this is an indication the economy is not going to head into a long hibernation.
Volume: 3.934M Avg Volume: 3.296M
BUY POINT: $91.42 Volume=4.5M Target=$99.95 Stop=$88.48
POSITION: BNI GR - July $90c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bni.html
Play Date: 03/12/2008
CPST (Capstone Turbine--$2.03; +0.11; no options): Industrial electrical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cpst.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-11-08
STATUS: Breakout test. This could be a lot of fun. CPST is testing the breakout from a 9 week cup with handle base, tapping at and holding the 18 day EMA (1.86) Tuesday and Wednesday. This base formed after CPST made a long awaited move off a 24 month correction, rallying higher in December then forming the current base. Nice breakout, lower volume test, and now looking for some more volume as it starts back up. Excellent money flow is surging higher ahead of price, leading the way higher.
Volume: 3.053M Avg Volume: 3.234M
BUY POINT: $2.11 Volume=5M Target=$3.55 Stop=$1.96
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cpst.html
Play Date: 03/12/2008
CRK (Comstock Resources--$36.04; +0.02; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-11-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume surged Wednesday as CRK continues its move off the 50 day EMA that acted as support in the handle to its 5 month base. Excellent base formed after the September to October move higher to a new all-time high. A very good consolidation that has set the stage for a more significant run higher once more. Money flow is running higher, turning higher ahead of price. Just waiting for the breakout.
Volume: 1.049M Avg Volume: 563.392K
BUY POINT: $37.88 Volume=845K Target=$43.95 Stop=$35.23
POSITION: CRK FG - June $35c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/crk.html
Play Date: 03/12/2008
NTES (Netease.com--$20.44; -0.05; optionable): Chinese online entertainment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntes.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-20-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Looks as if this could be interesting as well. Nice low volume fade to the 18 day EMA (20.24) as NTES forms a nice handle to its 22 week base. This is part of a large 2 year cup base that is setting up a for a nice breakout.
Volume: 730.85K Avg Volume: 1.074M
BUY POINT: $21.05 Volume=1.5M Target=$25.31 Stop=$19.65
POSITION: NQG FD - June $20c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ntes.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/12/2008
DIA (Diamonds Trust (DJ30 EFT)--$121.40; -0.66; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dia.html
STATUS: Put. DIA bounced sharply Tuesday, turning from a certain test of the January low (115.80) on the FOMC news. It tracked the Dow Wednesday, moving through the 18 day EMA on the high and then reversing to close below the 10 day EMA (121.66). Not a ton of volume so it was no clear reversal. If the market starts soft we don't want to move in too quickly but give it time to recover. If it does then we wait and see if it turns back over and falls; that is a clearer indication it is going to head lower and make that test of the January low. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 13.041M Avg Volume: 16.47M
BUY POINT: $121.09 Volume=17M Target=$117.55 Stop=$122.65
POSITION: DAW PR - Apr. $122p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dia.html
Play Date: 03/12/2008
IWM (Ishares Russell 2000--$66.52; -0.78; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iwm.html
STATUS: Put. Tracking the Russell 2000 small caps, IWM rallied to the 18 day EMA (68.17) on the Wednesday high and then rolled over to close below the 10 day EMA and at the session low. This is the canary for the economy, and it was one of the biggest losers after the rush higher on the FOMC Taffy announcement. Looking to play this the same was as with the DIA puts, i.e. if it opens softer waiting for a bounce and then moving in when that bounce fails.
Volume: 92.579M Avg Volume: 99.437M
BUY POINT: $66.38 Volume=100M Target=$64.04 Stop=$67.48
POSITION: DIW PO - Apr. $67p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/iwm.html
Play Date: 03/12/2008
QID (QQQ Proshares UltraShort ETF--$53.38; +1.03; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qid.html
STATUS: As NASDAQ 100 reversed at near resistance and turned lower we looked at the QID again in case QQQQ fails at this near resistance. If things turn lower early we want to be a bit coy as with DIA and IWM unless things have turned ugly in the morning.
Volume: 44.318M Avg Volume: 34.345M
BUY POINT: $53.45 Volume=50M Target=$59.65 Stop=$51.55
POSITION: QID DA - Apr. $53c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/qid.html
Play Date: 03/12/2008
SDS (UltraShort S&P500 ETF--$66.19; +0.99; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sds.html
STATUS: Same idea as QID as SP500 rallied to the 18 day EMA then rolled over. Want to play this one the same way.
Volume: 30.704M Avg Volume: 23.885M
BUY POINT: $66.12 Volume=30M Target=$72.50 Stop=$63.77
POSITION: SDS DN - Apr. $65c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sds.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/10/2008
DNA (Genentech--$80.15; +0.87; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dna.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-14-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Good volume, moving above average Wednesday as DNA traded in a wide range. Still looks ready to make the next leg higher. To recap: DNA reported approval of Avastin for breast cancer use and it shot higher - twice. It has come back on low volume the past three sessions, holding near support at the 10 day EMA (78). In a weak market it is a stock that is getting money. Want to see it hold here and rebound on rising trade to show us the buyers are back. That is when we move in.
Volume: 4.628M Avg Volume: 4.084M
BUY POINT: On a continued move on strong volume (orig. $80.05) Volume=6M Target=$90.00 Stop=$77.78
POSITION: DWN FP - June $80c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dna.html
Play Date: 03/08/2008
FDP (Fresh Del Monte Produce--$35.05; +0.85; optionable): Food, beverages
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdp.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-26-08
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Volume moved to average as FDP started up again off its 50 day EMA, moving toward the breakout. Food is jumping. Expecting FDP to do the same. To recap: Nice 4.5 month base has set up, making higher and higher lows up the 90 day MA (32), making a higher low last week at the 18 day EMA (33.50). There is a constant top at 36, and FDP is building pressure for the breakout from below with those higher and higher lows. Strong money flow broke out ahead of the stock and we are looking for FDP to follow it on up. Did well in the last recession and it is set up to do well here.
Volume: 686.952K Avg Volume: 656.792K
BUY POINT: $36.24 Volume=1M Target=$41.95 Stop=$33.98
POSITION: FDP FG - June 35c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fdp.html
Play Date: 03/11/2008
NBR (Nabors Industries--$31.85; -0.40; optionable): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nbr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-5-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working on the break higher, taking a low volume day off Wednesday. We can simply sit back and let it show us the breakout move. To recap: Very nice 9 month base, a classic double bottom. It rallied off the January lows to form the last leg and has spent the past 4 weeks working laterally in a range over the 10 day EMA (31.10), consolidating that move. Tuesday volume moved back above average as NBR broke higher from a higher low, moving up to the top of its range. Looks ready to make the breakout and want to see continued solid volume as it does.
Volume: 3.906M Avg Volume: 5.857M
BUY POINT: $32.57 Volume=8M Target=$37.95 Stop=$31.05
POSITION: NBR FZ - June $32.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nbr.html
Play Date: 03/08/2008
PQ (Petroquest Energy--$15.61; +0.04; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pq.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-20-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Still in the nice, easy low volume test of the breakout, holding above the 18 day EMA (15.21) on the lows. Nice position, just has to show us the break higher. To recap: Nice strong run through February, breaking out from a 9 month base on the way. It is now testing that breakout, coming back last week on lower and lower, below average volume as it made the test, holding above the pattern and maintaining its breakout. Looking for PQ to hold the test in this general area and then make the next break higher. That is our buy point and want to see volume kick up as it makes its move. Yet another stock that has high earnings growth rates to match its solid technical pattern.
Volume: 557.8K Avg Volume: 766.782K
BUY POINT: $16.12 Volume=1.1M Target=$19.65 Stop=$15.05
POSITION: PQ GC - July $15c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pq.html
Play Date: 03/11/2008
TKC (Turkcell--$24.32; -0.93; optionable): Turkish wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tkc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-27-08
STATUS: Double bottom. Took a breather Wednesday after a strong move Tuesday. Nice pause to test the 50 day EMA on the close that it just broke over. Now it is set to make the next break higher. To recap: Taking another run at TKC as it came back the past tow weeks to form the second leg in a 14 week double bottom formed over the 200 day SMA. Strong money flow is surging higher ahead of price and we are looking to move in as TKC continues its break higher.
Volume: 2.006M Avg Volume: 1.523M
BUY POINT: $25.55 Volume=2.1M Target=$29.85 Stop=$23.94
POSITION: TKC GE - July $25c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tkc.html
Play Date: 03/10/2008
UPL (Ultra Petroleum--$76.34; -0.57; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/upl.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-19-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Still testing the breakout, holding at the 18 day EMA on the Wednesday close. Volume moved higher as UPL tested lower then rebounded. Still set to make the bounce after this breakout test. To recap: UPL is coming back to the 50 day EMA (73.33), testing the early February breakout from a 15 week base. Strong run and a nice easy pullback toward key support. Going to let it make the full test of that level and then grab it as it rebounds on some stronger volume.
Volume: 1.235M Avg Volume: 1.315M
BUY POINT: $75.48 Volume=1.6M Target=$84.95 Stop=$73.21
POSITION: UPL FO - June $75c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/upl.html
Play Date: 03/07/2008
XTO (XTO Energy--$60.14; -0.94; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-12-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Another leader that is still in its test, still holding above the 18 day EMA as it rests and sets back up for the next break higher to continue its breakout run. To recap: Made us some great money on its breakout run, and now it is making the test we wanted, coming back to the 10 day EMA (60.68), coming to rest there on the Thursday close on much lower, below average volume. Watching to see if XTO holds at this level and then makes the next break higher in its breakout run. This is the second test of the 10 day EMA after the breakout. When making powerful runs stocks tend to bounce 4 to 5 times off the 10 or 18 day EMA. XTO is one of the stocks that is in a bull market despite the market overall, and it is strong. That means it still has plenty of upside ahead of it.
Volume: 5.334M Avg Volume: 6.047M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $60.48 (orig. $61.88) Volume=6.2M Target=$70.95 Stop=$60.39
POSITION: XTO HL - Aug. $60c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xto.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
