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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Post-Splits:
Play Date: 03/13/2008
BKE (Buckle, Inc.--$45.81; +0.41; no options): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bke.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-11-08
STATUS: Test breakout. BKE broke out of its nicely formed 15 week double bottom with handle base the last week of February, just ahead of its earnings this week. It came back to test ahead of the earnings, holding at the 10 day EMA (45.04) as it did. It held that through earnings, and is in great position to make the break higher. Strong money flow is leading higher and we are looking for the next break to the upside to enter positions.
Volume: 486.58K Avg Volume: 337.266K
BUY POINT: $46.38 Volume=500K Target=$53.68 Stop=$44.11
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bke.html
New Pre-Splits Plays:
Play Date: 03/13/2008
SWN (Southwestern Energy--$67.36; +2.92; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/swn.html
SPLIT: Splits 2:1 on 3-26-08
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Broke higher in mid-February, clearing a 14 week trading range and rallying up to 70, riding the 10 day EMA (65.16) higher. It has come back to test the past week, holding near the 18 day EMA (64.27) though it got a bit wild last Friday and Monday but held its ground. Thursday it broke higher on strong volume, and looks to be resuming the breakout run. Ready to move in as it continues.
Volume: 3.793M Avg Volume: 2.853M
BUY POINT: $68.25 Volume=3.8M Target=$76.95 Stop=$66.21
POSITION: JQY GN - July $70c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/swn.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 03/13/2008
DO (Diamond Offshore--$125.12; +3.22; optionable): Offshore drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/do.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-7-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. DO is working on a three week handle to its 11 week base, working laterally along the 50 day EMA (119.73), really looking good to put in its next break higher. It is throwing off some good upside price moves, but it needs a bit of volume to break it higher and give us a new high for that run back up near 150.
Volume: 1.702M Avg Volume: 2.698M
BUY POINT: $125.78 Volume=4M Target=$138.95 Stop=$119.68
POSITION: DO FE - June $125c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/do.html
Play Date: 03/13/2008
WFR (Memc Electronic--$83.24; +3.90; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-24-08
STATUS: Ascending base. Volume jumping the past two sessions and WFR is doing the same, clearing the mid-February highs on the Thursday move. Ready to run back up to the old highs at 95 as it has cleared the key resistance and did it on big volume.
Volume: 7.107M Avg Volume: 5.666M
BUY POINT: $83.55 Volume=6M Target=$93.75 Stop=$79.88
POSITION: WFR GQ - July $85c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wfr.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ACV: Researching date
ADM: Forecast April
ATW: Trying to recover after last week's dip.
BVN: No split announcement but continuing its move up the 10 day EMA.
EAC: Tentatively forecast mid-March
ECA: Continuing the breakout in a big way.
ESV: Researching date
FCX: Trying to make the break higher
GGB: Researching date
JEC: Forecast third week of April
JOYG: Early March. Reported strong earnings but no split.
MA: Forecast late April
MM: Researching date.
RIG: Forecast mid-May
TKC: Tentatively forecast mid-April
UPL: No announcement but holding up at near support as it tests its run.
WFT: Tentatively forecast late April
WMS: Researching date.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 03/13/2008
BIDU (Baidu.com--$268.09; -5.55; optionable): Chinese search
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bidu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-13-08
STATUS: Cup. Have been watching BIDU form up and then start to surge Wednesday on strong, above average volume, the first strong volume in a couple of weeks. It hit the 50 day EMA (274.75) and faded back, but closed right on top of the 200 day SMA on the Thursday close. Nice doji on the session indicates it is still ready to continue higher. It has been awhile since BIDU has been in play, but it has formed a nice rounded bottom (they are nice in many different situations) and has turned the corner. Looking for it to make the break through the 50 day and give us the buy.
Volume: 9.041M Avg Volume: 7.77M
BUY POINT: $275.21 Volume=10M Target=$345.00 Stop=$265.78
POSITION: BDU FX - June $280c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bidu.html
New buy point:
Play Date: 03/13/2008
JOYG (Joy Global--$70.55; +1.08; optionable): Farm and construction machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/joyg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-6-08
STATUS: Ascending base. Announced earnings, enjoyed a strong session, then immediately dumped back to the 50 day EMA. It just as quickly rebounded, moving on strong volume all the way. Then it broke to new high territory Thursday on more solid, above average volume. Ready to move in as it continues higher out of its 11 week base.
Volume: 3.047M Avg Volume: 2.314M
BUY POINT: $71.21 Volume=3.1M Target=$81.95 Stop=$67.05
POSITION: JQY GN - July $70c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/joyg.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 03/08/2008
GGB (Gerdau--$33.34; +0.66; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/ggb.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-13-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Moving higher but needs a bit more volume as it does. Nice hold of near support, and if it can show some volume it is a buy. To recap: As with many steel stocks GGB enjoyed a strong run in February, breaking to an all-time new high and running up to 34.25, clearing a 15 week double bottom along the way. It spent the past week testing that breakout, coming back to the 18 day EMA (31) Friday, showing a rising star doji at that point. That hold of near support is also above the highs in the base, a good point for new buys as it takes back off to the upside from those levels and resumes its new high run. Very solid and a top rated stock in terms of earnings grown and technical position.
Volume: 3.174M Avg Volume: 3.207M
BUY POINT: New: From the close on some more volume (orig. $32.88) Volume=4.8M Target=$39.45 Stop=$30.58
POSITION: GGB FF - June $30c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ggb.html
Play Date: 03/11/2008
TKC (Turkcell--$24.40; +0.08; optionable): Turkish wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tkc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-27-08
STATUS: Double bottom. Still in great position to make the break higher as it closed right at the 50 day EMA. In position; just has to show the break higher. To recap: Taking another run at TKC as it came back the past tow weeks to form the second leg in a 14 week double bottom formed over the 200 day SMA. Strong money flow is surging higher ahead of price and we are looking to move in as TKC continues its break higher.
Volume: 1.827M Avg Volume: 1.539M
BUY POINT: $25.55 Volume=2.1M Target=$29.85 Stop=$23.94
POSITION: TKC GE - July $25c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tkc.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/07/2008
GILD (Gilead Sciences--$48.49; +0.48; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gild.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-23-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Gapped higher Wednesday and Thursday, finally showing some above average trade Thursday. The gaps make a bit harder to get into, but it is still within the buy zone, and if it continues higher from here it is still a buy. To recap: GILD broke higher from a 7 week double bottom to start March, moving higher to end February and start this month on strong volume. It peaked out at 50 on Wednesday and faded, falling again Thursday but on much lower, below average volume. Nice breakout and we are going to let it make the test down near the 10 day EMA (47) and pick it up as it bounces off that level. A picture of strength in a weak market, and after this test of the break higher it will be a good buy as that gives the market time to recover.
Volume: 10.989M Avg Volume: 9.367M
BUY POINT: On a continued move higher (orig. Test 47 then $47.22 on the way back up) Volume=11M Target=$55.45 Stop=$46.78
POSITION: GDQ EW - May $47.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gild.html
Play Date: 03/11/2008
NBR (Nabors Industries--$32.08; +0.23; optionable): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nbr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-5-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume exploded higher Thursday as NBR posted a modest move, still in its handle. This is a 'get ready' spike, telling us to be ready for the breakout move. To recap: Very nice 9 month base, a classic double bottom. It rallied off the January lows to form the last leg and has spent the past 4 weeks working laterally in a range over the 10 day EMA (31.10), consolidating that move. Tuesday volume moved back above average as NBR broke higher from a higher low, moving up to the top of its range. Looks ready to make the breakout and want to see continued solid volume as it does.
Volume: 10.659M Avg Volume: 5.922M
BUY POINT: $32.57 Volume=8M Target=$37.95 Stop=$31.05
POSITION: NBR FZ - June $32.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nbr.html
Play Date: 03/12/2008
NTES (Netease.com--$20.24; -0.20; optionable): Chinese online entertainment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntes.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-20-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice tight doji on the 18 day EMA Thursday with more below average volume. Just waiting for the break higher. To recap: Looks as if this could be interesting as well. Nice low volume fade to the 18 day EMA (20.24) as NTES forms a nice handle to its 22 week base. This is part of a large 2 year cup base that is setting up a for a nice breakout.
Volume: 748.623K Avg Volume: 1.068M
BUY POINT: $21.05 Volume=1.5M Target=$25.31 Stop=$19.65
POSITION: NQG FD - June $20c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ntes.html
Play Date: 03/07/2008
XTO (XTO Energy--$61.18; +1.04; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-12-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Held the 18 day EMA (59.67) and started to bounce on some rising volume. Still below average; with all of the buying in energy, want to see some strong trade. Can fly, however, and looing to move in as it makes the break. To recap: Made us some great money on its breakout run, and now it is making the test we wanted, coming back to the 10 day EMA (60.68), coming to rest there on the Thursday close on much lower, below average volume. Watching to see if XTO holds at this level and then makes the next break higher in its breakout run. This is the second test of the 10 day EMA after the breakout. When making powerful runs stocks tend to bounce 4 to 5 times off the 10 or 18 day EMA. XTO is one of the stocks that is in a bull market despite the market overall, and it is strong. That means it still has plenty of upside ahead of it.
Volume: 6.214M Avg Volume: 6.066M
BUY POINT: $61.88 Volume=6.2M Target=$70.95 Stop=$60.39
POSITION: XTO HL - Aug. $60c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xto.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/05/2008
DRS (DRS Technologies--$57.50; -0.05; optionable): Aerospace/defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drs.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-8-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. This is a really great pattern forming up as DRS works on its three week handle. Volume has strting bumping up; getting ready for the breakout move. To recap: Nice volume surge Wednesday as DRS headed toward the breakout from a nicely formed 13 week base formed to set the foundation for the next run higher. DRS hit a new high in December and needed to work off the froth. This base has done that and with money flow surging higher ahead of the price it looks as if DRS is ready to follow it higher. Nice. One of the sectors we note looks good.
Volume: 588.136K Avg Volume: 509.324K
BUY POINT: $58.08 Volume=700K Target=$66.85 Stop=$56.22
POSITION: DRS FK - June $55c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/drs.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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