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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Post-Splits:
Play Date: 03/15/2008
TISI (Team, Inc.--$33.16; -1.36; no options): Maintenance and construction of higher pressure and temperature piping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tisi.html
EARNINGS: First week of April
STATUS: Cup. TISI is setting up a nice 12 week double bottom over the 200 day SMA, breaking higher Thursday on strong volume. That move took it past the 'hump' from early February. Friday it gapped higher but faded. May form a handle here, i.e. a lateral move over a few days on lower volume, before moving back up. Whether it does or not we are ready to move in when it continues higher once more. A stock that has held up very well without major selling, just forming bases when needed.
Volume: 234.388K Avg Volume: 149.031K
BUY POINT: $33.89 Volume=224K Target=$39.95 Stop=$31.72
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tisi.html
New Pre-Splits Plays:
Play Date: 03/15/2008
SU (Suncor Energy--$105.86; -2.42; optionable): Tar sands. Splits 2:1 on a date to be announced
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/su.html
EARNINGS: 4-24-08
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Rallied nicely after tanking like a bag of tar sand in January. It is moving laterally this month as the 10 and 18 day EMA rose to meet it. Tapped the 18 day EMA on the Friday low (104.32) and then rebounding to close at the 10 day EMA. Nice low volume on the move and just waiting for it to make the next break higher on a pre-split run.
Volume: 3.149M Avg Volume: 2.52M
BUY POINT: $108.55 Volume=3.2M Target=$119.95 Stop=$104.11
POSITION: SU FA - June $105c (45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/su.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 03/15/2008
PRGO (Perrigo--$34.84; -1.23; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prgo.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-5-08
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Excellent 11 week pattern has formed, making higher lows just over the 90 day MA (32.73). Excellent breakout and run in November on the earnings and this base is consolidating that move as PRGO needed a break after racing to a new all-time high. Nice low volume in February as PRGO faded to the 90 day MA, then volume shot up last week, coming in well above average, as PRGO jumped off the 90 day MA and banged into the top of the pattern. Excellent pattern.
Volume: 2.062M Avg Volume: 1.333M
BUY POINT: $36.55 Volume=2M Target=$42.75 Stop=$33.99
POSITION: IQP HG - Aug. $35c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/prgo.html
New Downside Plays:
Downside:
Play Date: 03/15/2008
AET (Aetna--$43.72; -0.96; optionable): Health Care Plans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aet.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-7-08
STATUS: Put. The scourge of the market last week the healthcare plans were hammered. AET gapped lower Tuesday on huge trade and then rebounded through Friday morning on lower, and lower volume. That lower trade shows fewer and fewer upside participants on the recovery. Friday it gapped higher and then rolled over. Looking to move in as it continues down. A move to the target lands a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 5.622M Avg Volume: 4.464M
BUY POINT: $43.48 Volume=5.8M Target=$40.25 Stop=$45.72
POSITION: AAF PI - Apr. $45p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aet.html
Play Date: 03/15/2008
ANN (Ann Taylor--$21.95; -1.95; optionable): Ladies apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ann.html
EARNINGS: 3-14-08
STATUS: Put. ANN is in a continuing downtrend since peaking in . . . 2006. It makes big moves lower after rallying up and bumping into the 50 day EMA (24.56). It spent the past 6 weeks moving higher and bumping into the 50 day EMA, and then Friday it turned lower on big volume as it forecast a weak 2008. That looks to have started the next leg lower. It can fall 8 to 10 points on these legs. Our initial target is not nearly that ambitious, but it does land a 44% gain. If it is selling well at that point we will take some gain and let the rest work for us.
Volume: 6.33M Avg Volume: 1.984M
BUY POINT: $21.85 Volume=2M Target=$19.65 Stop=$22.55
POSITION: ANN PX - Apr. $22.50p (--42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ann.html
Play Date: 03/15/2008
CPRT (Copart--$38.20; +0.08; optionable): Auto salvage yards, the flower of the auto industry
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cprt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-6-08
STATUS: Double top. Came into earnings looking pretty good then missed. Gapped it lower. Hard. It managed to hold the 200 day SMA on that gap and crawl and scratch its way back up, Friday running up to the 50 day EMA (39.40) intraday before fading to flat. It has filled the gap with that move, and now CPRT is free to roam about the downside. It gapped higher in early December, and then from roughly the same point it gapped higher, it turned and gapped lower. That is an island reversal pattern, and that typically starts a longer round of selling if a downside gap as this one. Looking for it to turn back over and head back down. A move to the target lands a 65%ish gain.
Volume: 1.295M Avg Volume: 735.639K
BUY POINT: $37.74 Volume=1.2M Target=$34.85 Stop=$39.11
POSITION: KQJ PH - Apr. $40p (-61 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cprt.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ACV: Researching date
ADM: Forecast April
ATW: Trying to recover after last week's dip.
BIDU: Wild card
BVN: No split announcement but continuing its move up the 10 day EMA.
EAC: Tentatively forecast mid-March
ECA: Continuing the breakout in a big way.
ESV: Tentatively looking at 4-24-08
FCX: Trying to make the break higher
GGB: Researching date
JEC: Forecast third week of April
JOYG: Early March. Reported strong earnings but no split.
MA: Forecast late April
MM: Researching date.
RIG: Forecast mid-May
TKC: Tentatively forecast mid-April
UPL: No announcement but holding up at near support as it tests its run.
WFT: Tentatively forecast late April
WMS: Researching date.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 03/15/2008
TEX (Terex--$66.58; -1.61; optionable): Heavy machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tex.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-20-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Showed some strength last week as it started weak but recovered on some solid volume to continue forming its 18 week base. The selling was actually part of the formation of the right shoulder of its pattern. This accumulation pattern often forms at the bottom of a larger cup base, and that is exactly the case this time as TEX works on a 6 month cup. Very nice build toward a breakout and we can just be patient and wait for the move.
Volume: 1.731M Avg Volume: 2.366M
BUY POINT: $68.32 Volume=3.5M Target=$79.95 Stop=$65.11
POSITION: TEX GM - July $65c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tex.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 03/13/2008
BIDU (Baidu.com--$268.05; -0.04; optionable): Chinese search
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bidu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-13-08
STATUS: Cup. Took a breather Friday, holding the 200 day SMA on the close. Lower volume. Nice rest after that early week move higher, setting up the break. Now it just needs to show it. To recap: Have been watching BIDU form up and then start to surge Wednesday on strong, above average volume, the first strong volume in a couple of weeks. It hit the 50 day EMA (274.75) and faded back, but closed right on top of the 200 day SMA on the Thursday close. Nice doji on the session indicates it is still ready to continue higher. It has been awhile since BIDU has been in play, but it has formed a nice rounded bottom (they are nice in many different situations) and has turned the corner. Looking for it to make the break through the 50 day and give us the buy.
Volume: 7.201M Avg Volume: 7.807M
BUY POINT: $275.21 Volume=10M Target=$345.00 Stop=$265.78
POSITION: BDU FX - June $280c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bidu.html
Play Date: 03/13/2008
JOYG (Joy Global--$68.80; -1.75; optionable): Farm and construction machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/joyg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-6-08
STATUS: Ascending base. Gapped higher Friday but could not continue the solid move for the week. Tested back to near support for a lower volume, modest loss. That better sets the move back to the upside. To recap: Announced earnings, enjoyed a strong session, then immediately dumped back to the 50 day EMA. It just as quickly rebounded, moving on strong volume all the way. Then it broke to new high territory Thursday on more solid, above average volume. Ready to move in as it continues higher out of its 11 week base.
Volume: 2.514M Avg Volume: 2.337M
BUY POINT: $71.21 Volume=3.1M Target=$81.95 Stop=$67.05
POSITION: JQY GN - July $70c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/joyg.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/13/2008
SWN (Southwestern Energy--$65.85; -1.51; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/swn.html
SPLIT: Splits 2:1 on 3-26-08
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Tested back on lower, below average volume Friday, holding just over the 10 day EMA. A better set up for us to enter as it makes the break back upside. Nice entry point. To recap: Broke higher in mid-February, clearing a 14 week trading range and rallying up to 70, riding the 10 day EMA (65.16) higher. It has come back to test the past week, holding near the 18 day EMA (64.27) though it got a bit wild last Friday and Monday but held its ground. Thursday it broke higher on strong volume, and looks to be resuming the breakout run. Ready to move in as it continues.
Volume: 2.905M Avg Volume: 2.874M
BUY POINT: New: $66.31 (orig. $68.25) Volume=3.8M Target=$76.95 Stop=$66.21
POSITION: JQY GN - July $70c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/swn.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/13/2008
BKE (Buckle, Inc.--$45.27; -0.54; no options): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bke.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-11-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Still working laterally over the 10 and 18 day EMA, taking a day off Friday. Showing great action, so just letting it show us the break higher. To recap: BKE broke out of its nicely formed 15 week double bottom with handle base the last week of February, just ahead of its earnings this week. It came back to test ahead of the earnings, holding at the 10 day EMA (45.04) as it did. It held that through earnings, and is in great position to make the break higher. Strong money flow is leading higher and we are looking for the next break to the upside to enter positions.
Volume: 362.4K Avg Volume: 340.903K
BUY POINT: $46.38 Volume=500K Target=$53.68 Stop=$44.11
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bke.html
Play Date: 03/07/2008
GILD (Gilead Sciences--$47.55; -0.94; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gild.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-23-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Plopped to the 50 day EMA last week but a great recovery, and then holding the 10 day EMA on Friday at the close. Nice higher low to set up the next break higher in its breakout move. To recap: GILD broke higher from a 7 week double bottom to start March, moving higher to end February and start this month on strong volume. It peaked out at 50 on Wednesday and faded, falling again Thursday but on much lower, below average volume. Nice breakout and we are going to let it make the test down near the 10 day EMA (47) and pick it up as it bounces off that level. A picture of strength in a weak market, and after this test of the break higher it will be a good buy as that gives the market time to recover.
Volume: 10.016M Avg Volume: 9.422M
BUY POINT: On a continued move higher
Volume=11M Target=$55.45 Stop=$46.78
POSITION: GDQ EW - May $47.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gild.html
Play Date: 03/11/2008
NBR (Nabors Industries--$32.13; +0.05; optionable): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nbr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-5-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Some big volume Thursday, a 'get ready' spike for the break higher. Friday it held its ground on lower volume. Still set to make the break. To recap: Very nice 9 month base, a classic double bottom. It rallied off the January lows to form the last leg and has spent the past 4 weeks working laterally in a range over the 10 day EMA (31.10), consolidating that move. Tuesday volume moved back above average as NBR broke higher from a higher low, moving up to the top of its range. Looks ready to make the breakout and want to see continued solid volume as it does.
Volume: 6.45M Avg Volume: 5.974M
BUY POINT: $32.57 Volume=8M Target=$37.95 Stop=$31.05
POSITION: NBR FZ - June $32.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nbr.html
Play Date: 03/07/2008
XTO (XTO Energy--$60.90; -0.28; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-12-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume started to move higher Thursday and Friday as XTO continued its lateral move over the 18 day EMA (59.80) as it continues testing the February run. Setting up well, and one of the best positioned energy plays to make the next strong move higher. To recap: Made us some great money on its breakout run, and now it is making the test we wanted, coming back to the 10 day EMA (60.68), coming to rest there on the Thursday close on much lower, below average volume. Watching to see if XTO holds at this level and then makes the next break higher in its breakout run. This is the second test of the 10 day EMA after the breakout. When making powerful runs stocks tend to bounce 4 to 5 times off the 10 or 18 day EMA. XTO is one of the stocks that is in a bull market despite the market overall, and it is strong. That means it still has plenty of upside ahead of it.
Volume: 6.626M Avg Volume: 6.117M
BUY POINT: $61.88 Volume=6.2M Target=$70.95 Stop=$60.39
POSITION: XTO HL - Aug. $60c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xto.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/13/2008
DO (Diamond Offshore--$124.45; -0.67; optionable): Offshore drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/do.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-7-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still very nice, still working laterally, setting up for the breakout from this handle. No volume yet, but there is promise. Like the pattern a lot, and like how much room it has to run to the upside before it reaches the last peak. To recap: DO is working on a three week handle to its 11 week base, working laterally along the 50 day EMA (119.73), really looking good to put in its next break higher. It is throwing off some good upside price moves, but it needs a bit of volume to break it higher and give us a new high for that run back up near 150.
Volume: 1.51M Avg Volume: 2.701M
BUY POINT: $125.78 Volume=4M Target=$138.95 Stop=$119.68
POSITION: DO FE - June $125c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/do.html
Play Date: 03/13/2008
WFR (Memc Electronic--$81.05; -2.19; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-24-08
STATUS: Ascending base. Gapped higher Friday after a strong upside Thursday move on volume, but it could not make the move stick in a weak market. Not worried; it held support and is still in great position to make the break higher once more and give us a good run to the prior highs. To recap: Volume Wednesday and Thursday and WFR is doing the same, clearing the mid-February highs on the Thursday move. Ready to run back up to the old highs at 95 as it has cleared the key resistance and did it on big volume.
Volume: 6.558M Avg Volume: 5.694M
BUY POINT: $83.55 Volume=6M Target=$93.75 Stop=$79.88
POSITION: WFR GQ - July $85c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wfr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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