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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/15/2008
PRGO (Perrigo--$34.84; -1.23; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prgo.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-5-08
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Excellent 11 week pattern has formed, making higher lows just over the 90 day MA (32.73). Excellent breakout and run in November on the earnings and this base is consolidating that move as PRGO needed a break after racing to a new all-time high. Nice low volume in February as PRGO faded to the 90 day MA, then volume shot up last week, coming in well above average, as PRGO jumped off the 90 day MA and banged into the top of the pattern. Excellent pattern.
Volume: 2.062M Avg Volume: 1.333M
BUY POINT: $36.55 Volume=2M Target=$42.75 Stop=$33.99
POSITION: IQP HG - Aug. $35c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/prgo.html
Play Date: 03/15/2008
PTNR (Partner Communications--$22.40; -0.56; optionable): Telecom wireless
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ptnr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-6-08
STATUS: Test breakout. PTNR surged out of a 12 week ascending triangle formed using the 50 and 90 day MA as support. As with PRGO, very good price/volume action in the pattern, i.e. showing solid upside trade as it moved higher, backing off below average on the consolidation portions, and then surging back up on the breakout to the new high. Strong trade Thursday, backing off Friday as it tested. Ready to partner up with PTNR as it rebounds from this quick little breakout test. Excellent earnings and sales growth rates.
Volume: 511.151K Avg Volume: 248.469K
BUY POINT: $22.57 Volume=325K Target=$26.95 Stop=$21.55
POSITION: QPO EX - May $22.50c (51 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ptnr.html
Play Date: 03/15/2008
TEX (Terex--$66.58; -1.61; optionable): Heavy machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tex.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-20-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Showed some strength last week as it started weak but recovered on some solid volume to continue forming its 18 week base. The selling was actually part of the formation of the right shoulder of its pattern. This accumulation pattern often forms at the bottom of a larger cup base, and that is exactly the case this time as TEX works on a 6 month cup. Very nice build toward a breakout and we can just be patient and wait for the move.
Volume: 1.731M Avg Volume: 2.366M
BUY POINT: $68.32 Volume=3.5M Target=$79.95 Stop=$65.11
POSITION: TEX GM - July $65c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tex.html
Play Date: 03/15/2008
TISI (Team, Inc.--$33.16; -1.36; no options): Maintenance and construction of higher pressure and temperature piping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tisi.html
EARNINGS: First week of April
STATUS: Cup. TISI is setting up a nice 12 week double bottom over the 200 day SMA, breaking higher Thursday on strong volume. That move took it past the 'hump' from early February. Friday it gapped higher but faded. May form a handle here, i.e. a lateral move over a few days on lower volume, before moving back up. Whether it does or not we are ready to move in when it continues higher once more. A stock that has held up very well without major selling, just forming bases when needed.
Volume: 234.388K Avg Volume: 149.031K
BUY POINT: $33.89 Volume=224K Target=$39.95 Stop=$31.72
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tisi.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/15/2008
AET (Aetna--$43.72; -0.96; optionable): Health Care Plans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aet.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-7-08
STATUS: Put. The scourge of the market last week the healthcare plans were hammered. AET gapped lower Tuesday on huge trade and then rebounded through Friday morning on lower, and lower volume. That lower trade shows fewer and fewer upside participants on the recovery. Friday it gapped higher and then rolled over. Looking to move in as it continues down. A move to the target lands a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 5.622M Avg Volume: 4.464M
BUY POINT: $43.48 Volume=5.8M Target=$40.25 Stop=$45.72
POSITION: AAF PI - Apr. $45p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aet.html
Play Date: 03/15/2008
ANN (Ann Taylor--$21.95; -1.95; optionable): Ladies apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ann.html
EARNINGS: 3-14-08
STATUS: Put. ANN is in a continuing downtrend since peaking in . . . 2006. It makes big moves lower after rallying up and bumping into the 50 day EMA (24.56). It spent the past 6 weeks moving higher and bumping into the 50 day EMA, and then Friday it turned lower on big volume as it forecast a weak 2008. That looks to have started the next leg lower. It can fall 8 to 10 points on these legs. Our initial target is not nearly that ambitious, but it does land a 44% gain. If it is selling well at that point we will take some gain and let the rest work for us.
Volume: 6.33M Avg Volume: 1.984M
BUY POINT: $21.85 Volume=2M Target=$19.65 Stop=$22.55
POSITION: ANN PX - Apr. $22.50p (--42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ann.html
Play Date: 03/15/2008
CPRT (Copart--$38.20; +0.08; optionable): Auto salvage yards, the flower of the auto industry
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cprt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-6-08
STATUS: Double top. Came into earnings looking pretty good then missed. Gapped it lower. Hard. It managed to hold the 200 day SMA on that gap and crawl and scratch its way back up, Friday running up to the 50 day EMA (39.40) intraday before fading to flat. It has filled the gap with that move, and now CPRT is free to roam about the downside. It gapped higher in early December, and then from roughly the same point it gapped higher, it turned and gapped lower. That is an island reversal pattern, and that typically starts a longer round of selling if a downside gap as this one. Looking for it to turn back over and head back down. A move to the target lands a 65%ish gain.
Volume: 1.295M Avg Volume: 735.639K
BUY POINT: $37.74 Volume=1.2M Target=$34.85 Stop=$39.11
POSITION: KQJ PH - Apr. $40p (-61 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cprt.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/13/2008
BIDU (Baidu.com--$268.05; -0.04; optionable): Chinese search
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bidu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-13-08
STATUS: Cup. Took a breather Friday, holding the 200 day SMA on the close. Lower volume. Nice rest after that early week move higher, setting up the break. Now it just needs to show it. To recap: Have been watching BIDU form up and then start to surge Wednesday on strong, above average volume, the first strong volume in a couple of weeks. It hit the 50 day EMA (274.75) and faded back, but closed right on top of the 200 day SMA on the Thursday close. Nice doji on the session indicates it is still ready to continue higher. It has been awhile since BIDU has been in play, but it has formed a nice rounded bottom (they are nice in many different situations) and has turned the corner. Looking for it to make the break through the 50 day and give us the buy.
Volume: 7.201M Avg Volume: 7.807M
BUY POINT: $275.21 Volume=10M Target=$345.00 Stop=$265.78
POSITION: BDU FX - June $280c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bidu.html
Play Date: 03/13/2008
DO (Diamond Offshore--$124.45; -0.67; optionable): Offshore drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/do.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-7-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still very nice, still working laterally, setting up for the breakout from this handle. No volume yet, but there is promise. Like the pattern a lot, and like how much room it has to run to the upside before it reaches the last peak. To recap: DO is working on a three week handle to its 11 week base, working laterally along the 50 day EMA (119.73), really looking good to put in its next break higher. It is throwing off some good upside price moves, but it needs a bit of volume to break it higher and give us a new high for that run back up near 150.
Volume: 1.51M Avg Volume: 2.701M
BUY POINT: $125.78 Volume=4M Target=$138.95 Stop=$119.68
POSITION: DO FE - June $125c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/do.html
Play Date: 03/11/2008
NBR (Nabors Industries--$32.13; +0.05; optionable): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nbr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-5-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Some big volume Thursday, a 'get ready' spike for the break higher. Friday it held its ground on lower volume. Still set to make the break. To recap: Very nice 9 month base, a classic double bottom. It rallied off the January lows to form the last leg and has spent the past 4 weeks working laterally in a range over the 10 day EMA (31.10), consolidating that move. Tuesday volume moved back above average as NBR broke higher from a higher low, moving up to the top of its range. Looks ready to make the breakout and want to see continued solid volume as it does.
Volume: 6.45M Avg Volume: 5.974M
BUY POINT: $32.57 Volume=8M Target=$37.95 Stop=$31.05
POSITION: NBR FZ - June $32.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nbr.html
Play Date: 03/13/2008
WFR (Memc Electronic--$81.05; -2.19; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-24-08
STATUS: Ascending base. Gapped higher Friday after a strong upside Thursday move on volume, but it could not make the move stick in a weak market. Not worried; it held support and is still in great position to make the break higher once more and give us a good run to the prior highs. To recap: Volume Wednesday and Thursday and WFR is doing the same, clearing the mid-February highs on the Thursday move. Ready to run back up to the old highs at 95 as it has cleared the key resistance and did it on big volume.
Volume: 6.558M Avg Volume: 5.694M
BUY POINT: $83.55 Volume=6M Target=$93.75 Stop=$79.88
POSITION: WFR GQ - July $85c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wfr.html
Play Date: 03/07/2008
XTO (XTO Energy--$60.90; -0.28; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-12-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume started to move higher Thursday and Friday as XTO continued its lateral move over the 18 day EMA (59.80) as it continues testing the February run. Setting up well, and one of the best positioned energy plays to make the next strong move higher. To recap: Made us some great money on its breakout run, and now it is making the test we wanted, coming back to the 10 day EMA (60.68), coming to rest there on the Thursday close on much lower, below average volume. Watching to see if XTO holds at this level and then makes the next break higher in its breakout run. This is the second test of the 10 day EMA after the breakout. When making powerful runs stocks tend to bounce 4 to 5 times off the 10 or 18 day EMA. XTO is one of the stocks that is in a bull market despite the market overall, and it is strong. That means it still has plenty of upside ahead of it.
Volume: 6.626M Avg Volume: 6.117M
BUY POINT: $61.88 Volume=6.2M Target=$70.95 Stop=$60.39
POSITION: XTO HL - Aug. $60c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xto.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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