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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS: Looking to the upside as see several patterns developing across several sectors after the indices held support in grim circumstances.
Upside:
Play Date: 03/17/2008
ABX (Barrick Gold--$52.32; -0.99; optionable): Gold mining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-21-08
STATUS: Ascending base. Gold stocks were under some pressure Monday even as gold moved higher over 1000, but most just tested back. ABX did the same, tapping the 18 day EMA (51.32) on the low and rebounding to most a rather modest loss. Volume was higher but when a stock holds support that is not necessarily a bad thing as it shows buyers supporting it at that level. Nice base on base pattern here with this 10 week ascending pattern up the 50 day EMA (49.38) forming after the early January breakout from an 8 week cup base. After this test we are watching to see if ABX can attract some more strong volume on the upside.
Volume: 11.342M Avg Volume: 10.9M
BUY POINT: $54.05 Volume=16M Target=$64.95 Stop=$51.21
POSITION: ABX GJ - July $50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/abx.html
Play Date: 03/17/2008
CSX (CSX Corp.--$51.31; +2.34; optionable): Railroads
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/csx.html
EARNINGS: 4-15-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. CSX broke higher in mid-February from an 8 month double bottom with handle base, rallying well at first. Then it sold off to end February and start March. It held the 50 day SMA on the low, however, and formed a short reverse head and shoulders pattern. Bounced, then on Monday surged on huge volume. The transports, whether rails or trucking, continues to improve, and as we have said that is a positive for the economy. Looking to move in on CSX as it continues its break higher.
Volume: 16.167M Avg Volume: 6.115M
BUY POINT: $51.65 Volume=7.5M Target=$59.45 Stop=$48.45
POSITION: CSX HJ - Aug. $50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/csx.html
Play Date: 03/17/2008
HCBK (Hudson City Bancorp--$17.01; +0.67; optionable): Savings and loans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hcbk.html
EARNINGS: Third week of April
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Whoa. A savings and loan looks very good. All during the banking issues HCBK did not suffer but prospered. It ran into some issues in the January selling, but finished its 16 week base and broke out. It immediately formed another base given the market choppy action, but as the market sold off it formed a short double bottom at the 50 and 90 day MA. Made a quick handle last week, gapped lower on Monday, but held the 50 day EMA (15.75) on the open and then surged higher to a new all-time high on strong trade. Great action and looking to move in as HCBK continues its run higher.
Volume: 12.68M Avg Volume: 8.216M
BUY POINT: $17.18 Volume=9M Target=$20.95 Stop=$15.98
POSITION: KHQ GW - July $17.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hcbk.html
New buy points on current positions:
Play Date: 03/17/2008
CHK (Chesapeake Energy--$45.90; -2.00; optionable): Independent natural gas producer
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-21-08
STATUS: Test breakout. CHK surged higher off an 18 day EMA (45.46) test last week and made us some money. It sold back some Friday then gapped lower Monday. It held the 18 day EMA on the low and rebounded to cut some losses. Volume faded Monday as it made that test. Looks as if CHK was caught up in the overall selling in energy. Want it to hold the 18 day EMA and then deliver a move back to the upside to give is a buy that we can take some more positions with.
Volume: 10.878M Avg Volume: 9.434M
BUY POINT: $47.05 Volume=12M Target=$53.95 Stop=$46.12
POSITION: CHK GI - July $45c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/chk.html
Play Date: 03/17/2008
STLD (Steel Dynamics--$67.12; -0.51; optionable): Steel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stld.html
EARNINGS: Last week of April
STATUS: Test breakout. STLD formed a nice 10 week base and then broke higher last week after taking its time in the handle. Strong volume as it made that initial move Tuesday through Thursday, taking a breather Friday, then testing back Monday as the metals were sold as part of the leader profit taking. Volume was lower on STLD as it did fade back, indicating no heavy duty selling; certainly not in line with the strong upside volume last week. Damn nice recovery Monday from a gap lower, and looking to move in on this bad boy as it moves higher and continues its breakout run.
Volume: 2.737M Avg Volume: 2.2M
BUY POINT: $67.88 Volume=3M Target=$77.95 Stop=$63.95
POSITION: RQL HN - May $70c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/stld.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/11/2008
NBR (Nabors Industries--$31.22; -0.91; optionable): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nbr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-5-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Sold off Monday with the energy sector but after gapping lower it staged a nice comeback on strong volume. Still in the pattern, still looking for the break higher. To recap: Very nice 9 month base, a classic double bottom. It rallied off the January lows to form the last leg and has spent the past 4 weeks working laterally in a range over the 10 day EMA (31.10), consolidating that move. Tuesday volume moved back above average as NBR broke higher from a higher low, moving up to the top of its range. Looks ready to make the breakout and want to see continued solid volume as it does.
Volume: 11.222M Avg Volume: 5.974M
BUY POINT: $32.57 Volume=8M Target=$37.95 Stop=$31.05
POSITION: NBR FZ - June $32.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nbr.html
Play Date: 03/15/2008
PRGO (Perrigo--$34.55; -0.29; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prgo.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-5-08
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Nice easy test to the 10 day EMA on lower volume, still set up well for the break higher. Very nice pattern. To recap: Excellent 11 week pattern has formed, making higher lows just over the 90 day MA (32.73). Excellent breakout and run in November on the earnings and this base is consolidating that move as PRGO needed a break after racing to a new all-time high. Nice low volume in February as PRGO faded to the 90 day MA, then volume shot up last week, coming in well above average, as PRGO jumped off the 90 day MA and banged into the top of the pattern. Excellent pattern.
Volume: 1.47M Avg Volume: 1.333M
BUY POINT: $36.55 Volume=2M Target=$42.75 Stop=$33.99
POSITION: IQP HG - Aug. $35c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/prgo.html
Play Date: 03/15/2008
PTNR (Partner Communications--$22.11; -0.29; optionable): Telecom wireless
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ptnr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-6-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Jumped higher early on strong volume, but it was fading right after the strong open. Waited to see how it held up, but it continued to slip on into a modest loss. Still set up well, still waiting for the break higher. To recap: PTNR surged out of a 12 week ascending triangle formed using the 50 and 90 day MA as support. As with PRGO, very good price/volume action in the pattern, i.e. showing solid upside trade as it moved higher, backing off below average on the consolidation portions, and then surging back up on the breakout to the new high. Strong trade Thursday, backing off Friday as it tested. Ready to partner up with PTNR as it rebounds from this quick little breakout test. Excellent earnings and sales growth rates.
Volume: 620.176K Avg Volume: 248.469K
BUY POINT: $22.57 Volume=325K Target=$26.95 Stop=$21.55
POSITION: QPO EX - May $22.50c (51 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ptnr.html
Play Date: 03/13/2008
WFR (Memc Electronic--$81.27; +0.22; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-24-08
STATUS: Ascending base. Gapped lower Monday to the 50 day EMA and recovered to positive after gapping higher Friday but then selling back. Still holding up very well and still in position to give a new buy. To recap: Gapped higher Friday after a strong upside Thursday move on volume, but it could not make the move stick in a weak market. Not worried; it held support and is still in great position to make the break higher once more and give us a good run to the prior highs. To recap: Volume Wednesday and Thursday and WFR is doing the same, clearing the mid-February highs on the Thursday move. Ready to run back up to the old highs at 95 as it has cleared the key resistance and did it on big volume.
Volume: 4.376M Avg Volume: 5.694M
BUY POINT: $83.55 Volume=6M Target=$93.75 Stop=$79.88
POSITION: WFR GQ - July $85c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wfr.html
Play Date: 03/07/2008
XTO (XTO Energy--$59.19; -1.71; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-12-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Big volume Monday as XTO gapped lower, sold back, then rebounded to cut its losses. Just want it to show us the break higher on continued solid volume as it was likely tossed out with the general market selling to start the week. To recap: Made us some great money on its breakout run, and now it is making the test we wanted, coming back to the 10 day EMA (60.68), coming to rest there on the Thursday close on much lower, below average volume. Watching to see if XTO holds at this level and then makes the next break higher in its breakout run. This is the second test of the 10 day EMA after the breakout. When making powerful runs stocks tend to bounce 4 to 5 times off the 10 or 18 day EMA. XTO is one of the stocks that is in a bull market despite the market overall, and it is strong. That means it still has plenty of upside ahead of it.
Volume: 9.368M Avg Volume: 6.117M
BUY POINT: $61.88 Volume=6.2M Target=$70.95 Stop=$60.39
POSITION: XTO HL - Aug. $60c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xto.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/15/2008
AET (Aetna--$42.82; -0.90; optionable): Health Care Plans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aet.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-7-08
STATUS: Put. Gapped lower then traded up and down in a range on lower, below average volume. Still weak and still in position to continue selling off though it may try the upside Tuesday if the market tries a rebound. To recap; The scourge of the market last week the healthcare plans were hammered. AET gapped lower Tuesday on huge trade and then rebounded through Friday morning on lower, and lower volume. That lower trade shows fewer and fewer upside participants on the recovery. Friday it gapped higher and then rolled over. Looking to move in as it continues down. A move to the target lands a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 5.117M Avg Volume: 4.464M
BUY POINT: $43.48 Volume=5.8M Target=$40.25 Stop=$45.72
POSITION: AAF PI - Apr. $45p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aet.html
Play Date: 03/15/2008
ANN (Ann Taylor--$21.71; -0.24; optionable): Ladies apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ann.html
EARNINGS: 3-14-08
STATUS: Put. Gapped lower and sold just below the Friday intraday low before rebounding to post just a modest loss. Lower trade but still well above average. Still looking to play ANN downside but it might try another upside test Tuesday at the open. To recap: ANN is in a continuing downtrend since peaking in . . . 2006. It makes big moves lower after rallying up and bumping into the 50 day EMA (24.56). It spent the past 6 weeks moving higher and bumping into the 50 day EMA, and then Friday it turned lower on big volume as it forecast a weak 2008. That looks to have started the next leg lower. It can fall 8 to 10 points on these legs. Our initial target is not nearly that ambitious, but it does land a 44% gain. If it is selling well at that point we will take some gain and let the rest work for us.
Volume: 3.136M Avg Volume: 1.984M
BUY POINT: $21.85 Volume=2M Target=$19.65 Stop=$22.55
POSITION: ANN PX - Apr. $22.50p (--42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ann.html
Play Date: 03/15/2008
CPRT (Copart--$38.12; -0.08; optionable): Auto salvage yards, the flower of the auto industry
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cprt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-6-08
STATUS: Double top. Gapped lower then recovered to flat. Volume was up modestly, still above average. Looking for it to roll over still and give us the downside play. To recap: Came into earnings looking pretty good then missed. Gapped it lower. Hard. It managed to hold the 200 day SMA on that gap and crawl and scratch its way back up, Friday running up to the 50 day EMA (39.40) intraday before fading to flat. It has filled the gap with that move, and now CPRT is free to roam about the downside. It gapped higher in early December, and then from roughly the same point it gapped higher, it turned and gapped lower. That is an island reversal pattern, and that typically starts a longer round of selling if a downside gap as this one. Looking for it to turn back over and head back down. A move to the target lands a 65%ish gain.
Volume: 1.374M Avg Volume: 735.639K
BUY POINT: $37.74 Volume=1.2M Target=$34.85 Stop=$39.11
POSITION: KQJ PH - Apr. $40p (-61 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cprt.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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