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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 03/18/2008
ANSS (Ansys--$37.81; +2.89; optionable): Technical software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anss.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-21-08
STATUS: Double bottom. ANSS is setting up a double bottom at the 200 day SMA (34.29), starting a strong bounce Tuesday on rising, above average volume. Money flow is also surging, moving higher ahead of price. Looking to play the run up to the prior high.
Volume: 1.038M Avg Volume: 764.856K
BUY POINT: $38.11 Volume=850K Target=$43.95 Stop=$36.77
POSITION: QUS GG - July $35c (67 delta, 65 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anss.html
Play Date: 03/18/2008
FTI (FMC Technologies--$59.89; +4.58; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fti.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-14-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Surging volume the past three sessions, particularly Tuesday, as FTI moved to the cusp of the breakout from its 5 month base. Kind of a base on base pattern with a cup in November and December, then the rest of the pattern forming up through Tuesday. Now it looks ready to make the breakout move with this strong Tuesday bounce. Ready to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 2.798M Avg Volume: 2.044M
BUY POINT: $60.62 Volume=3M Target=$69.95 Stop=$56.38
POSITION: FTI GL - July $60c (59 delta, 200 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fti.html
Play Date: 03/18/2008
SIAL (Sigma-Aldrich--$57.48; +1.43; optionable): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sial.html
EARNINGS: 4-22-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Huge volume Tuesday as SIAL broke out from a short 4 week reverse head and shoulders pattern that formed on the heels of a 9 week cup base. The move broke SIAL out to a new all-time high on strong trade, and we are looking to move in as SIAL continues the breakout and then look to more positions as it makes its test.
Volume: 2.372M Avg Volume: 1.426M
BUY POINT: $15.62 Volume=1.2M Target=$18.95 Stop=$14.53
POSITION: TQB EC - May $15c (61 delta, 220 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sial.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 03/18/2008
CHT (Chunghwa Telecom--$24.91; +0.72; optionable): Chinese telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cht.html
EARNINGS: 3-27-08
STATUS: Flying plateau. CHT has made us some good money, and after gapping higher in the second half of February it looks to have just about completed its three week flying plateau with a volume surge Tuesday as CHT bounced up to test the top of the range. Strong money flow is moving up sharply, and we are ready to move in as CHT continues higher, clearing the recent peaks in the range.
Volume: 3.418M Avg Volume: 2.028M
BUY POINT: $25.42 Volume=3M Target=$29.45 Stop=$23.98
POSITION: CHT FE - June $25c (58 delta, 54 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cht.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 03/18/2008
ABFS (Arkansas Best--$31.87; +1.40; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abfs.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-25-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. ABFS has formed a small 7 week base after jumping off the bottom of a long decline that began in mid-2006. Good bounce, nice base over the 50 day EMA, and then break higher through the 200 day SMA (30.80) last week. Volume rose as it made that move, clocking in above average after low trade in the base. Strong price move Tuesday though no volume to follow it just yet. Money flow is screaming higher ahead of price, and ABFS is in a very good position to run toward last summer's trading range at 40 and make us some good money.
Volume: 619.801K Avg Volume: 834.019K
BUY POINT: $32.08 Volume=1.2M Target=$38.75 Stop=$30.68
POSITION: FDQ FF - June $30c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/abfs.html
Play Date: 03/18/2008
CAT (Caterpillar--$76.87; +2.41; optionable): Heavy equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cat.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-25-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Volume is back up above average the past week as CAT gapped higher over the 200 day SMA (74.68), bumping into the neckline of its 21 week accumulation base. Like the strong volume on the recent moves; always good before a breakout. Good gap higher Tuesday up to last week's highs and we are looking to move in as it clears these and the December peak.
Volume: 9.405M Avg Volume: 7.2M
BUY POINT: $77.32 Volume=11M Target=$86.95 Stop=$74.55
POSITION: CAT HO - Aug. $75c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cat.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ACV: Researching date
ADM: Forecast April. Trying to put in a higher low at the 50 day EMA.
ATW: Trying to recover after last week's dip.
BIDU: Wild card
EAC: Tentatively forecast mid-March
ECA: Continuing the breakout in a big way.
ESV: Tentatively looking at 4-24-08
FCX: Struggling with the commodities
GGB: Researching date
JEC: Forecast third week of April
JOYG: Researching date
MA: Forecast late April
RIG: Forecast mid-May
TEX: Researching date.
TKC: Tentatively forecast mid-April
UPL: No announcement but holding up at near support as it tests its run.
WFT: Tentatively forecast late April
WMS: Researching date.
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/13/2008
SWN (Southwestern Energy--$65.96; +3.86; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/swn.html
SPLIT: Splits 2:1 on 3-26-08
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Gapped down to the 50 day EMA (60.79) Monday but then gapped right back up Tuesday. Not much volume, however. Still in position for the pre-split move and ready to enter if it can pick up some more volume on the move. To recap: Tested back on lower, below average volume Friday, holding just over the 10 day EMA. A better set up for us to enter as it makes the break back upside. Nice entry point. To recap: Broke higher in mid-February, clearing a 14 week trading range and rallying up to 70, riding the 10 day EMA (65.16) higher. It has come back to test the past week, holding near the 18 day EMA (64.27) though it got a bit wild last Friday and Monday but held its ground. Thursday it broke higher on strong volume, and looks to be resuming the breakout run. Ready to move in as it continues.
Volume: 2.488M Avg Volume: 2.905M
BUY POINT: New: $66.31 (orig. $68.25) Volume=3.8M Target=$76.95 Stop=$66.21
POSITION: JQY GN - July $70c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/swn.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/13/2008
BKE (Buckle, Inc.--$46.81; +1.91; no options): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bke.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-11-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Gapped higher on strong volume Tuesday, tested, then rebounded to hold the gap. Ready to move in as BKE continues the move higher after this gap and test in one day. To recap: BKE broke out of its nicely formed 15 week double bottom with handle base the last week of February, just ahead of its earnings this week. It came back to test ahead of the earnings, holding at the 10 day EMA (45.04) as it did. It held that through earnings, and is in great position to make the break higher. Strong money flow is leading higher and we are looking for the next break to the upside to enter positions.
Volume: 682.575K Avg Volume: 345.4K
BUY POINT: On a continued move from here (orig. $46.38) Volume=500K Target=$53.68 Stop=$44.11
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bke.html
Play Date: 03/07/2008
GILD (Gilead Sciences--$48.09; +1.33; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gild.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-23-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Tested lower but recovered for a nice price gain though no volume. Still a solid pattern, just needing some solid buying as it moves higher. Very nice. To recap: GILD broke higher from a 7 week double bottom to start March, moving higher to end February and start this month on strong volume. It peaked out at 50 on Wednesday and faded, falling again Thursday but on much lower, below average volume. Nice breakout and we are going to let it make the test down near the 10 day EMA (47) and pick it up as it bounces off that level. A picture of strength in a weak market, and after this test of the break higher it will be a good buy as that gives the market time to recover.
Volume: 7.793M Avg Volume: 9.475M
BUY POINT: New: $48.68 (orig. $47.22) Volume=11M Target=$55.45 Stop=$46.78
POSITION: GDQ EW - May $47.50c (57 delta) &/or Stockhttp://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gild.html
Play Date: 03/11/2008
NBR (Nabors Industries--$31.75; +0.53; optionable): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nbr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-5-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A pair of 'get ready' spikes the past week as NBR continues its lateral move, waiting for the breakout. It has the volume to drive it, just needs to show the breakout. To recap: Very nice 9 month base, a classic double bottom. It rallied off the January lows to form the last leg and has spent the past 4 weeks working laterally in a range over the 10 day EMA (31.10), consolidating that move. Tuesday volume moved back above average as NBR broke higher from a higher low, moving up to the top of its range. Looks ready to make the breakout and want to see continued solid volume as it does.
Volume: 6.971M Avg Volume: 6.118M
BUY POINT: $32.57 Volume=8M Target=$37.95 Stop=$31.05
POSITION: NBR FZ - June $32.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nbr.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/13/2008
DO (Diamond Offshore--$124.68; +5.53; optionable): Offshore drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/do.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-7-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still hanging in its lateral consolidation, moving on low, below average volume. Waiting for the break higher in price and on some strong volume. To recap: DO is working on a three week handle to its 11 week base, working laterally along the 50 day EMA (119.73), really looking good to put in its next break higher. It is throwing off some good upside price moves, but it needs a bit of volume to break it higher and give us a new high for that run back up near 150.
Volume: 1.491M Avg Volume: 2.7M
BUY POINT: $125.78 Volume=4M Target=$138.95 Stop=$119.68
POSITION: DO FE - June $125c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/do.html
Play Date: 03/15/2008
PRGO (Perrigo--$36.81; +2.26; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prgo.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-5-08
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Gapped higher and rallied on some strong volume Tuesday. Nice breakout move and still a buy as it continues the break. To recap: Excellent 11 week pattern has formed, making higher lows just over the 90 day MA (32.73). Excellent breakout and run in November on the earnings and this base is consolidating that move as PRGO needed a break after racing to a new all-time high. Nice low volume in February as PRGO faded to the 90 day MA, then volume shot up last week, coming in well above average, as PRGO jumped off the 90 day MA and banged into the top of the pattern. Excellent pattern.
Volume: 1.756M Avg Volume: 1.338M
BUY POINT: New: On a continued move higher on strong volume (orig. $36.55) Volume=2M Target=$42.75 Stop=$33.99
POSITION: IQP HG - Aug. $35c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/prgo.html
CONTINUING DOWNSIDE PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/15/2008
CPRT (Copart--$38.00; -0.12; optionable): Auto salvage yards, the flower of the auto industry
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cprt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-6-08
STATUS: Double top. Gapped higher to the 18 day EMA Tuesday then rolled over for a modest loss on rising volume. Still looks primed to fall as it stalls out at the 18 day EMA. To recap: Came into earnings looking pretty good then missed. Gapped it lower. Hard. It managed to hold the 200 day SMA on that gap and crawl and scratch its way back up, Friday running up to the 50 day EMA (39.40) intraday before fading to flat. It has filled the gap with that move, and now CPRT is free to roam about the downside. It gapped higher in early December, and then from roughly the same point it gapped higher, it turned and gapped lower. That is an island reversal pattern, and that typically starts a longer round of selling if a downside gap as this one. Looking for it to turn back over and head back down. A move to the target lands a 65%ish gain.
Volume: 1.571M Avg Volume: 751.286K
BUY POINT: $37.74 Volume=1.2M Target=$34.85 Stop=$39.11
POSITION: KQJ PH - Apr. $40p (-61 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cprt.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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