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Begin part 3 of 3

THE PLAYS: Looking at good upside patterns and some big momentum downside plays

New Post-Split Play:

Play Date: 03/19/2008
NUE (Nucor--$68.30; -6.15; optionable): Steel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nue.html
EARNINGS: Last week of April
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Yes steel was melting down Wednesday, but NUE continues to hold up well. It sold too, but it held just over the 18 day EMA (67.95) on the close, and volume, though above average, was still lower than the strong upside sessions of late. This pullback keeps NUE in its uptrend following the breakout, and this is its second test of the mid-February move that took it out of its year long base. It is holding the breakout with this test, and if it holds here and rebounds we will be willing to take positions for the continued move higher in its breakout.
Volume: 7.564M Avg Volume: 5.556M
BUY POINT: $69.91 Volume=8M Target=$80.45 Stop=$67.72
POSITION: NUE GN - July $70c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nue.html

New Pre-Announcement Play:

Play Date: 03/19/2008
AAPL (Apple Computer--$129.67; -3.15; optionable): iPods, iMacs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aapl.html
EARNINGS: 4-23-08
STATUS: Cup. AAPL has a nice rounded bottom that has firmed up over the past 9 weeks, starting higher the past two weeks, scratching its way higher on light volume. Best volume Tuesday on the market surge, but it was still below average. Forming up nicely and there is a gap lower from mid-January that begs to be filled. After a steep decline that trimmed 40% off AAPL, it is setting up to make a break higher and form the right side of its base. A growth stock leader can lose 40% in a correction, set up a new base, and keep on moving. Wednesday AAPL faded back on lower volume after approaching the 50 day SMA (135), but that is only giving us a better entry point for when it turns back up after this test. Just looking for a trade here, but willing to commit longer term as long as AAPL continues moving up after a break higher.
Volume: 36.091M Avg Volume: 47.286M
BUY POINT: $130.22 Volume=60M Target=$149.95 Stop=$128.12
POSITION: APV GF - July $130c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aapl.html

Downside:

Play Date: 03/19/2008
AGU (Agrium--$63.10; -7.15; optionable): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-13-08
STATUS: Double top. AGU made a low volume second peak in late February and then started to test lower. Bounced off support at 65 twice, but Wednesday it could not hold that level of the 90 day MA (64.31), tumbling hard on the highest volume since the early February selling. Lots of downside momentum and we are looking for a fast move down toward the 200 day MA (55.10). As we have seen, the market is swinging up and down, so we are looking at this as a quick move and an aggressive play. A move to the target lands a 35%ish gain.
Volume: 4.58M Avg Volume: 3.517M
BUY POINT: $62.89 Volume=3.8M Target=$57.75 Stop=$65.22
POSITION: AGU PM - Apr. $65p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/agu.html

Play Date: 03/19/2008
CMED (China Medical Technologies--$38.70; -1.48; optionable): Chinese medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmed.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-28-08
STATUS: Put. Crumbled on earnings, falling to the 200 day SMA (39.75) where it held . . . for three sessions. It gapped below that level, then rallied back up the past week, testing that break lower and filling the gap. Stalling at that level, looking ready for another run lower toward next support at 35. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 288.891K Avg Volume: 765.205K
BUY POINT: $38.47 Volume=775K Target=$36.00 Stop=$39.88
POSITION: QCY PH - Apr. $40p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cmed.html

Play Date: 03/19/2008
CVX (Chevron-Texaco--$81.89; -4.23; optionable): Integrated oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-1-08
STATUS: Put. Diving lower on solid trade Wednesday as CVX imploded, undercutting the Monday low and setting a new low mark for March. Lots of downside momentum here that we are looking to capture; another quick hitter of a play. Money flow is diving lower and we are looking to move in, ride it to the target, take in a 40%ish gain in short order, and get out if it starts to hold near support at 78.
Volume: 14.797M Avg Volume: 12.608M
BUY POINT: $81.68 Volume=15M Target=$78.45 Stop=$82.91
POSITION: CVX PQ - Apr. $85p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cvx.html

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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