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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS: Looking at good upside patterns and some big momentum downside plays
Upside:
Play Date: 03/19/2008
AAPL (Apple Computer--$129.67; -3.15; optionable): iPods, iMacs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aapl.html
EARNINGS: 4-23-08
STATUS: Cup. AAPL has a nice rounded bottom that has firmed up over the past 9 weeks, starting higher the past two weeks, scratching its way higher on light volume. Best volume Tuesday on the market surge, but it was still below average. Forming up nicely and there is a gap lower from mid-January that begs to be filled. After a steep decline that trimmed 40% off AAPL, it is setting up to make a break higher and form the right side of its base. A growth stock leader can lose 40% in a correction, set up a new base, and keep on moving. Wednesday AAPL faded back on lower volume after approaching the 50 day SMA (135), but that is only giving us a better entry point for when it turns back up after this test. Just looking for a trade here, but willing to commit longer term as long as AAPL continues moving up after a break higher.
Volume: 36.091M Avg Volume: 47.286M
BUY POINT: $130.22 Volume=60M Target=$149.95 Stop=$128.12
POSITION: APV GF - July $130c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aapl.html
Play Date: 03/19/2008
KO (Coca-Cola--$59.96; +0.55; optionable): Sugar water
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/ko.html
EARNINGS: 2-13-08
STATUS: Cup. KO tumbled in January but found terra firma at the 200 day SMA (57.72), moving laterally above that key support for 9 weeks, trading in a 3 point range. It surged higher to the 90 day MA on its Wednesday high (60.83) then peeled back to hold just below 60, the top of the lateral trading range. Good volume on this move, however, and if KO can make a higher low here and break higher on more solid trade we are looking to take some positions as it rides higher and forms the right side of its new base.
Volume: 11.63M Avg Volume: 10.358M
BUY POINT: $60.45 Volume=13M Target=$67.45 Stop=$59.31
POSITION: KO HL - Aug. $60c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ko.html
Play Date: 03/19/2008
NUE (Nucor--$68.30; -6.15; optionable): Steel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nue.html
EARNINGS: Last week of April
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Yes steel was melting down Wednesday, but NUE continues to hold up well. It sold too, but it held just over the 18 day EMA (67.95) on the close, and volume, though above average, was still lower than the strong upside sessions of late. This pullback keeps NUE in its uptrend following the breakout, and this is its second test of the mid-February move that took it out of its year long base. It is holding the breakout with this test, and if it holds here and rebounds we will be willing to take positions for the continued move higher in its breakout.
Volume: 7.564M Avg Volume: 5.556M
BUY POINT: $69.91 Volume=8M Target=$80.45 Stop=$67.72
POSITION: NUE GN - July $70c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nue.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/19/2008
AGU (Agrium--$63.10; -7.15; optionable): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-13-08
STATUS: Double top. AGU made a low volume second peak in late February and then started to test lower. Bounced off support at 65 twice, but Wednesday it could not hold that level of the 90 day MA (64.31), tumbling hard on the highest volume since the early February selling. Lots of downside momentum and we are looking for a fast move down toward the 200 day MA (55.10). As we have seen, the market is swinging up and down, so we are looking at this as a quick move and an aggressive play. A move to the target lands a 35%ish gain.
Volume: 4.58M Avg Volume: 3.517M
BUY POINT: $62.89 Volume=3.8M Target=$57.75 Stop=$65.22
POSITION: AGU PM - Apr. $65p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/agu.html
Play Date: 03/19/2008
CMED (China Medical Technologies--$38.70; -1.48; optionable): Chinese medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmed.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-28-08
STATUS: Put. Crumbled on earnings, falling to the 200 day SMA (39.75) where it held . . . for three sessions. It gapped below that level, then rallied back up the past week, testing that break lower and filling the gap. Stalling at that level, looking ready for another run lower toward next support at 35. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 288.891K Avg Volume: 765.205K
BUY POINT: $38.47 Volume=775K Target=$36.00 Stop=$39.88
POSITION: QCY PH - Apr. $40p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cmed.html
Play Date: 03/19/2008
CVX (Chevron-Texaco--$81.89; -4.23; optionable): Integrated oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-1-08
STATUS: Put. Diving lower on solid trade Wednesday as CVX imploded, undercutting the Monday low and setting a new low mark for March. Lots of downside momentum here that we are looking to capture; another quick hitter of a play. Money flow is diving lower and we are looking to move in, ride it to the target, take in a 40%ish gain in short order, and get out if it starts to hold near support at 78.
Volume: 14.797M Avg Volume: 12.608M
BUY POINT: $81.68 Volume=15M Target=$78.45 Stop=$82.91
POSITION: CVX PQ - Apr. $85p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cvx.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/18/2008
ABFS (Arkansas Best--$30.83; -1.04; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abfs.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-25-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. What market selling? Used it to fade to the 200 day SMA on the close on continued below average volume. Still in one of the best positions to truck higher. To recap: ABFS has formed a small 7 week base after jumping off the bottom of a long decline that began in mid-2006. Good bounce, nice base over the 50 day EMA, and then break higher through the 200 day SMA (30.80) last week. Volume rose as it made that move, clocking in above average after low trade in the base. Strong price move Tuesday though no volume to follow it just yet. Money flow is screaming higher ahead of price, and ABFS is in a very good position to run toward last summer's trading range at 40 and make us some good money.
Volume: 662.484K Avg Volume: 834.019K
BUY POINT: $32.08 Volume=1.2M Target=$38.75 Stop=$30.68
POSITION: FDQ FF - June $30c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/abfs.html
Play Date: 03/18/2008
BRKR (Bruker Corp.--$14.56; -0.86; optionable): Scientific instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brkr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-17-08
STATUS: Flying plateau. Broke higher, continuing the Tuesday move, but it faded and gave that move back. Lower volume, held above the 10 day EMA (14.34), still looks good to continue the move as the pullback was part of the market selling and BRKR did not interrupt its pattern. To recap: Breaking higher Tuesday on stronger, above average volume as BRKR announced solid earnings that broke it out of its three week range. This lateral move consolidated the late February breakout from its 8 week cup. Nice consolidation, nice break higher, ready to move in as BRKR continues the run.
Volume: 957.748K Avg Volume: 721.881K
BUY POINT: $15.57 Volume=1.1M Target=$18.95 Stop=$14.48
POSITION: TQB HC - Aug. $15c (65 delta, 133 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/brkr.html
Play Date: 03/18/2008
CHT (Chunghwa Telecom--$24.40; -0.51; optionable): Chinese telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cht.html
EARNINGS: 3-27-08
STATUS: Flying plateau. Big volume Wednesday, but held fast at the 10 day EMA, easily in its lateral range and still set for the break higher. To recap: CHT has made us some good money, and after gapping higher in the second half of February it looks to have just about completed its three week flying plateau with a volume surge Tuesday as CHT bounced up to test the top of the range. Strong money flow is moving up sharply, and we are ready to move in as CHT continues higher, clearing the recent peaks in the range.
Volume: 4.909M Avg Volume: 2.06M
BUY POINT: $25.42 Volume=3M Target=$29.45 Stop=$23.98
POSITION: CHT FE - June $25c (58 delta, 54 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cht.html
Play Date: 03/08/2008
FDP (Fresh Del Monte Produce--$36.90; 0.00; optionable): Farm products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdp.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-26-08
STATUS: Ascending base. Huge volume as FDP gapped modestly lower to support and then rebounded to close flat, holding the Tuesday break higher. Looking for a continued move higher to step in. To recap: Nice 5 month ascending triangle, using the 90 day MA as support for the lows. Bumping up at the breakout point at 35, the top hit in January. Surging money flow is leading the way higher.
Volume: 1.851M Avg Volume: 674.592K
BUY POINT: New: 37.05 (orig. $36.24) Volume=1M Target=$41.95 Stop=$33.98
POSITION: FDP FG - June 35c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fdp.html
Play Date: 03/07/2008
GILD (Gilead Sciences--$47.56; -0.53; optionable): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gild.html
EARNINGS: Third week of April
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still forming the handle, holding the 10 day EMA on the close on low, below average volume. Just what you want to see in a handle. Set up well, ignoring the market selling, always a sign of strength. Just waiting for the volume to jump as price does the same. To recap: Nicely formed 10 week double bottom that used the 200 day SMA (42.54) as support on both lows. Excellent low volume pullback to form the handle.
Volume: 8.384M Avg Volume: 9.512M
BUY POINT: New: 48.32 (orig. $47.22) Volume=11M Target=$55.45 Stop=$46.78
POSITION: GDQ EW - May $47.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gild.html
Play Date: 03/15/2008
PTNR (Partner Communications--$21.77; -0.79; optionable): Telecom wireless
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ptnr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-6-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Sold with the market Wednesday, but volume was much lower, coming in just over average. Held the 18 day EMA on the close, and that still keeps it in a higher low, ready to make the breakout move. Have to like its strength in a weak market tape. Now it needs to convert that to the breakout move. To recap: PTNR surged out of a 12 week ascending triangle formed using the 50 and 90 day MA as support. As with PRGO, very good price/volume action in the pattern, i.e. showing solid upside trade as it moved higher, backing off below average on the consolidation portions, and then surging back up on the breakout to the new high. Strong trade Thursday, backing off Friday as it tested. Ready to partner up with PTNR as it rebounds from this quick little breakout test. Excellent earnings and sales growth rates.
Volume: 319.53K Avg Volume: 256.611K
BUY POINT: $22.57 Volume=325K Target=$26.95 Stop=$21.55
POSITION: QPO EX - May $22.50c (51 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ptnr.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/15/2008
ANN (Ann Taylor--$22.33; -0.11; optionable): Ladies apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ann.html
EARNINGS: 3-14-08
STATUS: Put. Rallied up to tap the 50 day SMA and 18 day EMA on the Wednesday high then rolled back to close flat. This looks to have completed the rebound to test the Friday break lower below the 50 day EMA. Tombstone doji suggests it is ready to turn back down from here. To recap: ANN is in a continuing downtrend since peaking in . . . 2006. It makes big moves lower after rallying up and bumping into the 50 day EMA (24.56). It spent the past 6 weeks moving higher and bumping into the 50 day EMA, and then Friday it turned lower on big volume as it forecast a weak 2008. That looks to have started the next leg lower. It can fall 8 to 10 points on these legs. Our initial target is not nearly that ambitious, but it does land a 44% gain. If it is selling well at that point we will take some gain and let the rest work for us.
Volume: 2.293M Avg Volume: 2.027M
BUY POINT: $21.85 Volume=2M Target=$19.65 Stop=$22.55
POSITION: ANN PX - Apr. $22.50p (--42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ann.html
Play Date: 03/15/2008
CPRT (Copart--$37.89; -0.11; optionable): Auto salvage yards, the flower of the auto industry
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cprt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-6-08
STATUS: Double top. CPRT continues dancing just below the 50 day EMA (39.24) afer tapping that level on the Friday high. Still unable to crack resistance at 38, still looking for it to turn down and make the fall back toward the 200 day SMA (34.95). To recap: Came into earnings looking pretty good then missed. Gapped it lower. Hard. It managed to hold the 200 day SMA on that gap and crawl and scratch its way back up, Friday running up to the 50 day EMA intraday before fading to flat. It has filled the gap with that move, and now CPRT is free to roam about the downside. It gapped higher in early December, and then from roughly the same point it gapped higher, it turned and gapped lower. That is an island reversal pattern, and that typically starts a longer round of selling if a downside gap as this one. Looking for it to turn back over and head back down. A move to the target lands a 65%ish gain.
Volume: 1.412M Avg Volume: 762.368K
BUY POINT: $37.74 Volume=1.2M Target=$34.85 Stop=$39.11
POSITION: KQJ PH - Apr. $40p (-61 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cprt.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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