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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS: More key stocks with excellent fundamentals growth from various sectors developing nice upside patterns.
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 03/21/2008
LKQX (LKQ Corp.--$23.32; +1.23; optionable): Replacement systems, components, parts for autos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lkqx.html
EARNINGS: 2-27-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Breaking higher out of a 13 week base. Solid run from mid-2007 through December, and this base is the consolidation of that move and the foundation for the next run. Strong volume Friday, but it was expiration; need to see more solid trade as LKQX continues its run higher. Very solid and very strong earnings and sales growth rates.
Volume: 3.383M Avg Volume: 1.273M
BUY POINT: $23.52 Volume=1.9M Target=$28.31 Stop=$21.94
POSITION: AUG EX - May $22.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/lkqx.html
Play Date: 03/21/2008
SCSC (Scansource--$35.43; +1.20; optionable): Wholesale technology products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/scsc.html
EARNINGS: Third week of April
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Nice set up for a break to a new all-time high as SCSC approaches the breakout point from its 20 week base. Strong money flow is leading higher and volume is swelling. Strong pattern and just waiting for the upside break to give us the buy point.
Volume: 599.67K Avg Volume: 303.518K
BUY POINT: $36.26 Volume=450K Target=$41.95 Stop=$34.05
POSITION: UHI FG - June $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/scsc.html
New buy point on current post-split position:
Play Date: 03/21/2008
RIMM (Research in Motion--$104.94; +3.82; optionable): Handheld PDA DEVICES
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
EARNINGS: 4-2-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. RIMM has formed a 12 week base within a larger 19 week pattern. It gapped higher in February and has since come back to test, now working laterally along the 50 day EMA (100.47) in a narrow trading range as it prepares for the next break higher. Really like how it has set up and we suspect this is going to be one of the leaders if the market is able to hold the break higher and sustain the recent bottoming process.
Volume: 18.429M Avg Volume: 24.921M
BUY POINT: $106.78 Volume=32M Target=$122.95 Stop=$100.32
POSITION: RUL FL - June $105c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rimm.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 03/21/2008
AIRM (Air Methods--$46.95; +0.42; optionable): Air medical transportation services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/airm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-12-08
STATUS: Cup. AIRM surged higher on earnings just over a week back, the move taking it off the bottom of its 18 week base. A small double bottom formed to end February and start March, setting up the bounce. It rallied to the 90 day MA (47.19) Tuesday through Thursday, stalling there to end the week. May take another few sessions to complete the test and rest after that move, then we look for it to resume its move higher up toward that November high at 58. Very strong earnings and sales growth. After a short breather it will be in great position to rip off some chunks of upside real estate.
Volume: 300.653K Avg Volume: 177.277K
BUY POINT: $47.31 Volume=300K Target=$56.95 Stop=$45.05
POSITION: UDU GI - July $45c (65 delta, 59 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/airm.html
Play Date: 03/21/2008
BLK (Blackrock--$206.10; +16.07; optionable): Financial services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blk.html
EARNINGS: Mid-April
STATUS: Double bottom. BLK was selling hard just a week back but the changes wrought by the Fed rescued it from an undercut of the 200 day SMA (184), and BLK is enjoying a strong surge on above average volume. It formed a 7 week double bottom near the 200 day SMA, and is now on the rebound. Lots of momentum and looking to take some positions as it continues higher, take what profit it can make for us on this move, then pick up some new positions after the test of that surge.
Volume: 881.623K Avg Volume: 665.448K
BUY POINT: $206.88 Volume=998K Target=$230.00 Stop=$201.39
POSITION: BLK GB - July $210c (48 delta, 76 delt)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/blk.html
Play Date: 03/21/2008
PCLN (Priceline.com--$118.63; +3.69; optionable): Online hotel/travel services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcln.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-14-08
STATUS: Test breakout. PCLN surged higher in mid-February on its earnings, clearing a 9 week base that was rather ragged, but with those kind of earnings it had no problem surging higher. After that move and running a bit further, it came back to test, falling to the 50 day SMA and the 'hump' in its double bottom base. Volatile week last week with all of the stocks, but it bounced off the 50 day EMA and is setting up to continue its move higher. Just want to be ready to step in as it makes the next break higher. Another stock with top earnings growth rates to match its pattern.
Volume: 2.989M Avg Volume: 1.734M
BUY POINT: $120.11 Volume=2.2M Target=$138.95 Stop=$112.95
POSITION: PUZ GU - July $120c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pcln.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Trying to move higher off the bottom of its base.
ACV: Researching date
EAC: Tentatively forecast mid-March. Nothing from EAC this past week other than a tough end.
ECA: Strong breakout turned into a dive lower to end the week. Managed to hold the 90 day MA and now we see if it can bounce.
ESV: Tentatively looking at 4-24-08
GGB: Researching date
JEC: Forecast third week of April
JOYG: Researching date. Struggling, selling down to the 90 day MA.
MA: Forecast late April
RIG: Forecast mid-May
TEX: Researching date.
TKC: Tentatively forecast mid-April
WFT: Tentatively forecast late April
WMS: Researching date.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAY:
Play Date: 03/21/2008
ISRG (Intuitive Surgical--$300.69; +9.03; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/isrg.html
EARNINGS: Late April
STATUS: Ascending base. ISRG was a huge mover in 2007; it owns its market and has great residuals because it provides a necessary surgical tool and there are disposables associated with its use that you have to buy again and again. After that run it had to test and base, and it is doing that, making a higher low in early March after holding the 200 day SMA (249) on the January low, the first low in the current base. Still a strong leader with strong fundamentals growth rates, ready to assume the mantel of leadership once again. Money flow is running higher ahead of price, creating a positive divergence, and we anticipate price to follow. Expensive options, but with the kind of moves it makes, definitely able to make strong runs.
Volume: 809.058K Avg Volume: 1.088M
BUY POINT: $302.12 Volume=1.5M Target=$348.00 Stop=$293.89
POSITION: AXV GT - July $300c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/isrg.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/18/2008
ANSS (Ansys--$37.30; +0.93; optionable): Technical software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anss.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-21-08
STATUS: Double bottom. After selling back Wednesday and giving back the Tuesday move, ANSS found support again at the 50 day EMA and bounced Thursday on strong volume. Just being patient, letting it show us the break higher. To recap: ANSS is setting up a double bottom at the 200 day SMA (34.29), starting a strong bounce Tuesday on rising, above average volume. Money flow is also surging, moving higher ahead of price. Looking to play the run up to the prior high.
Volume: 1.732M Avg Volume: 787.376K
BUY POINT: $38.11 Volume=850K Target=$43.95 Stop=$36.77
POSITION: QUS GG - July $35c (67 delta, 65 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anss.html
Play Date: 03/13/2008
BKE (Buckle, Inc.--$46.83; +1.00; no options): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bke.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-11-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Some big moves to end the week, just not able to hold them. Doesn't mean it won't, and indeed we are still looking to move into BKE as it makes its next break upside. Just want to see it buckle down and hold the move. To recap: BKE broke out of its nicely formed 15 week double bottom with handle base the last week of February, just ahead of its earnings this week. It came back to test ahead of the earnings, holding at the 10 day EMA (45.04) as it did. It held that through earnings, and is in great position to make the break higher. Strong money flow is leading higher and we are looking for the next break to the upside to enter positions.
Volume: 1.422M Avg Volume: 374.565K
BUY POINT: On a continued move from here (orig. $46.38) Volume=500K Target=$53.68 Stop=$44.11
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bke.html
Play Date: 03/18/2008
CHT (Chunghwa Telecom--$25.07; +0.67; optionable): Chinese telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cht.html
EARNINGS: 3-27-08
STATUS: Flying plateau. Strong volume last week as CHT banged its head into the top of its recent range. It is ready to make the break higher and continue its run for us with some new positions. To recap: CHT has made us some good money, and after gapping higher in the second half of February it looks to have just about completed its three week flying plateau with a volume surge Tuesday as CHT bounced up to test the top of the range. Strong money flow is moving up sharply, and we are ready to move in as CHT continues higher, clearing the recent peaks in the range.
Volume: 3.76M Avg Volume: 2.162M
BUY POINT: $25.42 Volume=3M Target=$29.45 Stop=$23.98
POSITION: CHT FE - June $25c (58 delta, 54 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cht.html
Play Date: 03/07/2008
GILD (Gilead Sciences--$48.43; +0.87; optionable): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gild.html
EARNINGS: Third week of April
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Strong volume Thursday as GILD traded in a wide range, but held the 18 day EMA on the low before bouncing to a gain. Still in excellent position to make the breakout. To recap: Nicely formed 10 week double bottom that used the 200 day SMA (42.54) as support on both lows. Excellent low volume pullback to form the handle.
Volume: 10.014M Avg Volume: 9.658M
BUY POINT: New: 48.62 (orig. $47.22) Volume=11M Target=$55.45 Stop=$46.78
POSITION: GDQ EW - May $47.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gild.html
Play Date: 03/19/2008
NUE (Nucor--$68.96; +0.66; optionable): Steel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nue.html
EARNINGS: Last week of April
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Big reach lower Thursday, but it held support at 65 and rebounded to hold the 18 day EMA and post a modest gain. Steel held up well despite the selling in commodities; it was sold hard Wednesday but held support much better. After this shakeout we are looking for it to recover, and NUE as well given its great pattern. To recap: Yes steel was melting down Wednesday, but NUE continues to hold up well. It sold too, but it held just over the 18 day EMA (67.95) on the close, and volume, though above average, was still lower than the strong upside sessions of late. This pullback keeps NUE in its uptrend following the breakout, and this is its second test of the mid-February move that took it out of its year long base. It is holding the breakout with this test, and if it holds here and rebounds we will be willing to take positions for the continued move higher in its breakout.
Volume: 6.844M Avg Volume: 5.556M
BUY POINT: $69.91 Volume=8M Target=$80.45 Stop=$67.72
POSITION: NUE GN - July $70c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nue.html
Play Date: 03/18/2008
SIAL (Sigma-Aldrich--$57.24; -0.16; optionable): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sial.html
EARNINGS: 4-22-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Continued back on Thursday, but tapped and held the 10 day EMA (56.30) on the low and rebounded to flat. Strong volume to end the week, and SIAL is set up well to make the move. Very nice and just waiting for it to make the next move. To recap: Huge volume Tuesday as SIAL broke out from a short 4 week reverse head and shoulders pattern that formed on the heels of a 9 week cup base. The move broke SIAL out to a new all-time high on strong trade, and we are looking to move in as SIAL continues the breakout and then look to more positions as it makes its test.
Volume: 2.926M Avg Volume: 1.484M
BUY POINT: $57.69 Volume=1.2M Target=$66.35 Stop=$55.68
POSITION: IAQ GK - July $55c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sial.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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