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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS: More stocks developing good upside patterns.
Upside:
Play Date: 03/24/2008
CELG (Celgene--$60.20; +2.29; optionable): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/celg.html
EARNINGS: 5-8-08
STATUS: Flat base. CELG is breaking higher out of its 8 week flat base, moving past the 200 day SMA (60) on Monday. Volume surged Thursday as CELG held flat, maybe just expiration, but Monday CELG was on the move. This flat base is part of its 6 month base that is more or less a cup. CELG needed this break after a 2005 to October 2007 run and this is doing the job, building the foundation for the next run. Looking to take some positions as CELG continues the break above the 200 day and then we will see how it tests and then add when it gives us the bounce after that test.
Volume: 5.341M Avg Volume: 5.811M
BUY POINT: $60.39 Volume=6M Target=$72.75 Stop=$57.45
POSITION: LQH GL - July $60c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/celg.html
Play Date: 03/24/2008
DBC (DB Commodity Index ETF--$35.69; +0.64; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dbc.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. The DBC commodity ETF made us some money on its February to March run and then it hit the skids as the dollar firmed on the most recent Fed action. It broke sharply lower Thursday but recovered the 50 day EMA (35) on the close. Modest bounce Monday on lower but above average volume. It tested its trendline for this run last week and it held. Looking to see if we get some upside volume to show us the buyers are back and we can come to the table as well.
Volume: 1.459M Avg Volume: 1.013M
BUY POINT: $36.11 Volume=1.5M Target=$41.55 Stop=$34.91
POSITION: DBC GI - July $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dbc.html
Play Date: 03/24/2008
LIFC (Lifecell--$42.29; +2.79; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lifc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-27-08
STATUS: Double bottom. LIFC double bottomed off the 200 day SMA (37.69) and then surged higher Monday on a second straight session of strong volume. Wasn't no expiration volume. It blew past the early March peaks that marked the 'hump' in the 14 week pattern, and we are looking to take some positions as it continues higher, following its very strong money flow. After that it will likely test the move, making a higher low as it does. That will be our opportunity to take some more positions as it proves it can hold its breakout. Very nice.
Volume: 953.178K Avg Volume: 586.803K
BUY POINT: $42.65 Volume=650K Target=$48.95 Stop=$41.04
POSITION: QLK FV - June $42.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/lifc.html
Play Date: 03/24/2008
NUS (Nu Skin--$18.79; -0.20; optionable): Synthetic skin
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nus.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-6-08
STATUS: Breakout test. NUS surged higher to start last week, clearing a 17 week cup base on some very strong volume that lasted for a good week. It tested the move to end the week, showing a nice doji with tail that tapped the 10 day EMA (18.53) on the low and then rebounded. Part of a larger 1.5 year cup base it cleared with the same, move, NUS has put in the work to set up its next extended run higher. Ready to pick it up off of this bounce.
Volume: 644.108K Avg Volume: 386.29K
BUY POINT: $19.08 Volume=600K Target=$22.95 Stop=$18.38
POSITION: NUS FW - June $17.50c (68 delta, 73 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nus.html
Play Date: 03/24/2008
SCSC (Scansource--$36.54; +1.11; optionable): Wholesale technology products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/scsc.html
EARNINGS: Third week of April
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Another solid session of above average volume as SCSC flirted with the breakout from its nice 20 week base. Nice set up for a break to a new all-time high as SCSC bangs at the breakout point of its base. Strong money flow is leading higher and volume is swelling. Strong pattern and just waiting for the upside break to give us the buy point.
Volume: 427.569K Avg Volume: 304.179K
BUY POINT: $37.15 Volume=450K Target=$42.95 Stop=$34.55
POSITION: UHI FG - June $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/scsc.html
Play Date: 03/24/2008
YTEC (Yucheng Technologies--$17.77; +1.89; optionable): Chinese intellectual technology solutions for banking industry.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/ytec.html
STATUS: Ascending base. YTEC treated us rudely last time around but it has set up a new strong base and we are willing to let by-gones be by-gones. Volume was solid the past three sessions, sending YTEC surging higher Monday. It has formed a base on base pattern the past 6 months, holding the 90 day SMA during the March selling. Heading toward a breakout to a new all-time high for this stock that came public in 2005.
Volume: 403.311K Avg Volume: 0
BUY POINT: $18.24 Volume=325K Target=$21.95 Stop=$16.96
POSITION: TXE GW - July $17.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ytec.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/21/2008
AIRM (Air Methods--$47.81; +0.86; optionable): Air medical transportation services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/airm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-12-08
STATUS: Cup. Gapped higher and over the 90 day SMA (47.09) Monday on continued strong volume. If it can continue from here it is still a buy. To recap: AIRM surged higher on earnings just over a week back, the move taking it off the bottom of its 18 week base. A small double bottom formed to end February and start March, setting up the bounce. It rallied to the 90 day MA Tuesday through Thursday, stalling there to end the week. May take another few sessions to complete the test and rest after that move, then we look for it to resume its move higher up toward that November high at 58. Very strong earnings and sales growth. After a short breather it will be in great position to rip off some chunks of upside real estate.
Volume: 298.335K Avg Volume: 178.623K
BUY POINT: $47.31 Volume=300K Target=$56.95 Stop=$45.05
POSITION: UDU GI - July $45c (65 delta, 59 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/airm.html
Play Date: 03/18/2008
BRKR (Bruker Corp.--$15.23; +0.23; optionable): Scientific instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brkr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-17-08
STATUS: Flying plateau. Good volume held over from Thursday and expiration though BRKR just edged higher. Still looking for the breakaway move and still a buy on this move. To recap: Breaking higher Tuesday on stronger, above average volume as BRKR announced solid earnings that broke it out of its three week range. This lateral move consolidated the late February breakout from its 8 week cup. Nice consolidation, nice break higher, ready to move in as BRKR continues the run.
Volume: 1.685M Avg Volume: 754.879K
BUY POINT: $15.57 Volume=1.1M Target=$18.95 Stop=$14.48
POSITION: TQB HC - Aug. $15c (65 delta, 133 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/brkr.html
Play Date: 03/08/2008
FDP (Fresh Del Monte Produce--$37.71; +1.95; optionable): Farm products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdp.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-26-08
STATUS: Ascending base. Volume faded Monday back to average, but FDP was moving upside. It broke higher last week, showing volume but not giving a really sharp upside break. Stumbled Thursday and then was moving sharply higher Monday. Looks good to enter on a continued upside move.
Volume: 845.562K Avg Volume: 713.248K
BUY POINT: New: $37.89 (orig. $36.24) Volume=1M Target=$41.95 Stop=$33.98
POSITION: FDP FG - June 35c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fdp.html
Play Date: 03/21/2008
SVR (Syniverse Technologies--$17.22; +0.21; optionable): Wireless voice and data clearinghouse
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/svr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-19-08
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Gapped higher Monday but could not hold the gap and surge, or at least not all of it. Lower trade, moving just below average, so we were not too high on moving in to this one just yet. Nice test of the gap intraday, and if SVR can continue higher from here on volume it is a buy. To recap: SVR surged out of a reverse head and shoulders base in early February, rallying to 19 on that run, matching the October peak that marked the start of the 14 week base. After that move it sold back in the market selling, coming back to the 50 day EMA and the 90 day MA here in March. It has moved laterally on low, below average volume during that period, and then volume jumped above average on Wednesday. It was up again Thursday as SVR jumped higher. Ready to move in as SVR continues its run off this test and follows its strong money flow higher. Another stock that sports excellent earnings growth rates to go along with its pattern.
Volume: 705.073K Avg Volume: 617.395K
BUY POINT: $17.18 Volume=645K Target=$20.25 Stop=$16.15
POSITION: SVR FC - June $15c (71 delta, 116 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/svr.html
Continuing Downside:
Play Date: 03/19/2008
AGU (Agrium--$63.24; +1.93; optionable): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-13-08
STATUS: Double top. Rallied back up to the 90 day SMA (64.36) Monday after that sharp Wednesday and Thursday decline through that support level. Monday it tapped at the 90 day and then faded back, holding a gain but well off the highs and below key resistance. No volume to push it as it bounced. Classic low volume test and looking to move in as AGU rolled back over.
Volume: 3.134M Avg Volume: 3.532M
BUY POINT: $62.89 Volume=3.8M Target=$57.75 Stop=$65.22
POSITION: AGU PM - Apr. $65p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/agu.html
Play Date: 03/19/2008
CVX (Chevron-Texaco--$84.01; +0.80; optionable): Integrated oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-1-08
STATUS: Put. After the heavy Wednesday selling CVX bounced Thursday and again Monday, but it could only make the 50 day SMA on the intraday high (84.80) before slipping back down to close. No volume to drive it as trade fell way below average, the lowest trade since late February. That shows no heavy buying to send it higher. Still looking for the rollover to take some positions.
Volume: 9.972M Avg Volume: 12.818M
BUY POINT: $83.88 Volume=15M Target=$79.12 Stop=$85.11
POSITION: CVX PQ - Apr. $85p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cvx.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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