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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 03/25/2008
CLF (Cleveland-Cliffs--$117.87; +0.93; optionable): Steel and iron. Splits 2:1 on 5-16-08
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clf.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-21-08
STATUS: Double bottom. CLF has made a short double bottom at the 50 day SMA (109.37) and right on top of the highs in its 16 week ascending base that it broke out form in early February. Strong volume Friday as it made its second bottom at that level. Pausing on lower volume after that move. Just looking for another move on stronger volume to give us our buy signal.
Volume: 1.319M Avg Volume: 1.728M
BUY POINT: $119.22 Volume=2M Target=$133.95 Stop=$115.45
POSITION: CGJ ED - May $120c (51 delta, 50 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/clf.html
New Leader Plays: A couple that could give us their first split announcements and one to that has made us some money before.
Play Date: 03/25/2008
FSLR (First Solar--$219.73; +10.23; optionable): Solar semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fslr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-13-08
STATUS: Double bottom. FSLR started to bounce this week off a higher low as it comes off the early March bottom that formed the second leg to its 12 week pattern. It streaked higher in 2007 on the alternative energy craze and flared out to end the year. Some sharp selling in January, a recovery through mid-February to form the 'hump,' then an ease back into March to form the second leg. Starting to bounce higher; could use some more volume as it comes off this level, but it has a lot of room overhead to make us good money without having to break to a new high. Like that.
Volume: 4.709M Avg Volume: 6.006M
BUY POINT: $222.25 Volume=7M Target=$264.95 Stop=$212.88
POSITION: HJQ FD - June $220c (58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fslr.html
Play Date: 03/25/2008
GOOG (Google--$450.78; -9.78; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/goog.html
EARNINGS: 4-16-08
STATUS: Double bottom. After the long decline from over 700, GOOG has formed an Apple-like rounded bottom over the past month; not as round and shapely as Apple's, but not bad at all. ON top of this it gets a downgrade today but it just faded to the 18 day EMA on the close. Looking for a rebound off this gift of a test to move in. Looking to ride it up to the 50 day EMA (503) on the run.
Volume: 5.833M Avg Volume: 7.723M
BUY POINT: $455.32 Volume=8M Target=$499.45 Stop=$445.45
POSITION: GOP FJ - June $450c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/goog.html
Play Date: 03/25/2008
USO (United States Oil Fund ETF--$81.47; +1.21; optionable): Oil tracking ETF
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uso.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Made us some money on its breakout run when it broke out in mid-February from its 13 week base. Nice solid rally up the 10 day EMA (82.78) and now the test of the 50 day EMA (78.83) that held and looks to be setting up a bounce for the next part of the run. Boone Pickens even changed his tune from predicting an oil decline to it moving right back up. From the look of the pattern that appears to be the case.
Volume: 4.741M Avg Volume: 4.78M
BUY POINT: $82.15 Volume=6M Target=$92.45 Stop=$79.32
POSITION: UNA GD - July $82c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/uso.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Took some gain as it showed a doji after a solid rally
ACV: Researching date
CELG: Broke over the 200 day SMA to get things started
EAC: No announcement yet.
ECA: Testing the 50 day EMA and trying to make the bounce
ESV: Tentatively looking at 4-24-08
GGB: Researching date
ISRG: Tentatively set for late April
JEC: Forecast third week of April
JOYG: Researching date. Making a bounce off the 50 day EMA. Looking for some more volume.
MA: Forecast late April
RIG: Forecast mid-May
TEX: Researching date.
TKC: Tentatively forecast mid-April
WFT: Tentatively forecast late April
WMS: Researching date.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAY:
Play Date: 03/25/2008
BCR (C.R. Bard--$99.15; -0.31; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
EARNINGS: End of April
STATUS: double bottom with handle. After a 15 month trading range lasting through mid-December 2007, BCR exploded higher and out of the range. It rallied to 100, often a magnet and yet a resistance point for stocks. It was both for BCR. It formed the current 9 week base below 100, making a pair of bottoms, the one to start March a bit higher, holding the 90 day SMA. Gapped higher last week to . . . 100, and has worked laterally just below 100 since. Volume has been on the rise. Looking for the breakout to move into positions.
Volume: 1.054M Avg Volume: 840.203K
BUY POINT: $100.11 Volume=1.3M Target=$112.85 Stop=$97.32
POSITION: BCR GT - July $100c (54 delta, 133 OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bcr.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/18/2008
CAT (Caterpillar--$76.64; +0.61; optionable): Heavy machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cat.html
EARNINGS: Late April
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Bumping up against the breakout point the past week, doing so again Tuesday but without the volume to drive it through. Set up well to make the break from its 5 month base formed at the bottom of a larger 9 month pattern. Just need to see some volume as it makes the break through the buy point.
Volume: 5.211M Avg Volume: 7.314M
BUY POINT: $77.32 Volume=11M Target=$86.95 Stop=$74.55
POSITION: CAT HO - Aug. $75c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cat.html
Play Date: 03/21/2008
LKQX (LKQ Corp.--$22.95; -0.91; optionable): Replacement systems, components, parts for autos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lkqx.html
EARNINGS: 2-27-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. May be getting a gift here as LKQX gapped higher Monday after the solid Friday showing, but then faded Tuesday to tap the 10 day EMA (22.59) on the low and recover modestly. That filled the gap on lower volume, and LKQX is in good position after this breakout test and gap fill. Just want to see it back up on rising trade to move in. To recap: Breaking higher out of a 13 week base. Solid run from mid-2007 through December, and this base is the consolidation of that move and the foundation for the next run. Strong volume Friday, but it was expiration; need to see more solid trade as LKQX continues its run higher. Very solid and very strong earnings and sales growth rates.
Volume: 1.37M Avg Volume: 1.224M
BUY POINT: $23.52 Volume=1.9M Target=$28.31 Stop=$21.94
POSITION: AUG EX - May $22.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/lkqx.html
Play Date: 03/21/2008
SCSC (Scansource--$36.91; +0.37; optionable): Wholesale technology products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/scsc.html
EARNINGS: Third week of April
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Solid volume Monday as SCSC moved higher but also closed well off its high. Tuesday it continued to drift higher but on very low, below average volume. Need to see a bit more vigor and it is a buy. To recap: Nice set up for a break to a new all-time high as SCSC approaches the breakout point from its 20 week base. Strong money flow is leading higher and volume is swelling. Strong pattern and just waiting for the upside break to give us the buy point.
Volume: 209.644K Avg Volume: 304.179K
BUY POINT: New: On a continued move on rising volume (orig. $36.26) Volume=450K Target=$41.95 Stop=$34.05
POSITION: UHI FG - June $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/scsc.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/24/2008
LIFC (Lifecell--$42.01; -0.28; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lifc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-27-08
STATUS: Double bottom. Took a breather Tuesday after that strong surge higher to start the week. Volume backed off but was still above average. Very nice test and still looks good to be a leader as the rally continues, though it may take another day or two off first. To recap: LIFC double bottomed off the 200 day SMA (37.69) and then surged higher Monday on a second straight session of strong volume. Wasn't no expiration volume. It blew past the early March peaks that marked the 'hump' in the 14 week pattern, and we are looking to take some positions as it continues higher, following its very strong money flow. After that it will likely test the move, making a higher low as it does. That will be our opportunity to take some more positions as it proves it can hold its breakout. Very nice.
Volume: 918.202K Avg Volume: 586.803K
BUY POINT: $42.65 Volume=650K Target=$48.95 Stop=$41.04
POSITION: QLK FV - June $42.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/lifc.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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